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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ECM day ten...

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.721b5ad64bcfb6fb212a3a1a6f049f03.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.6da467c001dd7ec1766c3012bf452a22.gif

    not a bad position as the Atlantic is well and truly A.W.O.L,would love to see the next few frames mind. 

    @swfc,there is your 3000th like😏

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Some chopping and changing in charts around 8 to 10 days,but ECM going for high pressure 

    all the way.As I mentioned earlier all about where the high pressure tends to sit and drifts to

    in regards to cool / cold weather for U.K.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    Anybody clocked the 0zGFS parallel (non operational)

    More or less the same output was on show a few days ago and it’s back again, so who know the others will follow.....I hope so 🤗

     

    image.thumb.png.248fe51ae2eebfb6280bfcb9555377eb.pngimage.thumb.png.5e55d4011f0edbecabc844b6189fd98e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Anybody clocked the 0zGFS parallel (non operational)

    More or less the same output was on show a few days ago and it’s back again, so who know the others will follow.....I hope so 🤗

     

    image.thumb.png.248fe51ae2eebfb6280bfcb9555377eb.pngimage.thumb.png.5e55d4011f0edbecabc844b6189fd98e.png

    😙😙Is it acurrate at all tia

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Does anyone have a link to the GFS / GEFS ensembles please? Re above that should give us an indication if the GFS(p) is onto something or not...

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Does anyone have a link to the GFS / GEFS ensembles please? Re above that should give us an indication if the GFS(p) is onto something or not...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Does anyone have a link to the GFS / GEFS ensembles please? Re above that should give us an indication if the GFS(p) is onto something or not...

    I see Paul has posted the NW ones,Also on meteociel

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

    ens.thumb.png.7b2dd5061b1606c8df886b843390f682.png

    click on gef ensembles(red circle),then diagrams and then point cursor to any location on the map.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Does anyone have a link to the GFS / GEFS ensembles please? Re above that should give us an indication if the GFS(p) is onto something or not...

    I don't think that the gfs/p is in the ens Tim as they are in test mode

    it says this on the gfs/p page in red:-

    GFS parallel runs are back for GFSv16 testing.

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    After yesterday's GFS 12Z offering which got everyone very excited, let's see what this evening's output provides in terms of similar:

    The NH profiles at T+240 from GEM, GFS OP and ECM

    image.thumb.png.1a00fe55c63134476a989d14800cfe17.pngimage.thumb.png.75ba4519be421081070801994e31c421.pngimage.thumb.png.49746e7b138849fa2bba1aeadb902516.png

    The "clean" break for the PV from its usual home seems to have bene put on hold with substantial residual vortex energy around Greenland though ECM is the most interesting in that the PV is angled more toward Canada allowing heights to the north of the UK while both GFS and GEM take the height rises to Scandinavia.

    GEM digs the trough well to the west of the British Isles but all the output has a quieter Atlantic and certainly the zonal train is in the sidings for the moment.

    The ECM and GEM profiles have a shift of PV energy to Siberia and the ECM in particular has the two vortex lobes positioned ideally to allow height rises from the Pole south to the north of the British Isles. There's a hint of this on GEM but GFS OP has the more traditional Scandinavian-NW Russian HP which can be intense and often frigid in midwinter making it very hard to shift. 

    Further into FI, the GFS OP development is fascinating with the PV diminished and heights over both Greenland and Scandinavia and the trough digging to the south-west (the GEM hints at this at T+240).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Another evening of interesting model runs, interesting in the sense they are not showing the typical pattern we expect in November i.e. atlantic zonal westerly. A change is coming early in the week, gone is the very mild SW airstream, replaced by a cooler west-nw airstream, before high pressure topples in to bring a welcome drier spell, with associated chill at night.

    Next weekend, heights look like ebbing away to our east and south east, and we pull in a milder most probably cloudy southerly flow off the continent.

    Following week, heights to the east hold steady and we see a stand off between the atlantic and continental high, ECM keen to build heights further to the north which in turn could lead to trough disruption and retrogression of heights, GFS instead migrates heights further south and we see a more traditional SW flow move in, but not concertedly.

    If strong heights do build to our east as indicated, against a weak atlantic as projected, these at any time of year can be difficult to shift, much will depend on where the PV lobes end up. By mid November, such highs can trap cold surface air, and we see the cold grow quickly in the dense air, so an easterly can turn from bringing rather average temps to cold quite quickly, but more likely in second half of Nov than first half.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Not bad runs this evening, not much consistency beyond 7 days, as is to be expected.  I would definitely take the ECM at day 10 with a fair chunk of vortex seemingly about to drop to our east with height's potentially rising in Greenland.  Completely academic at this range of course, but I'd prefer to see this over raging zonality!  Stuff to keep our minds occupied it nothing else!!!

    image.thumb.png.e1342b0a6c954922c4b4db6b656ecb23.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Anybody clocked the 0zGFS parallel (non operational)

    More or less the same output was on show a few days ago and it’s back again, so who know the others will follow.....I hope so 🤗

     

    image.thumb.png.248fe51ae2eebfb6280bfcb9555377eb.pngimage.thumb.png.5e55d4011f0edbecabc844b6189fd98e.png

    To all that was asking earlier....The GFS Parallel will become the new upgrade GFS operational as early as January next year, they are just testing it atm as they have being for several months now.

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A latest look at the cpc 500mb anomaly charts days 6-10/8-14

    it looks to me that the +ve heights in the extended moves further north into Scandinavia so we could see a wind source from the east

    610day_03.thumb.gif.689202e26f2bb2d53cdd08bfa3908329.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.7f99057d60cb464c36d31542bcfe0d68.gif

    a look at the De-built ens shows this and i will take that straddler at -10

    wind direction and dew points

    eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.e41407773d2805d446b4cb4b8828980c.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.7079c6b68c0af22be718fd89606dd921.png

    WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

    Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

    how much this hp cell pushes north will determine how much undercutting from the east will advect colder uppers west

    interesting times.

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Yet again anything past a week looks up for grabs this morning. 18z gfs and this mornings oz like chalk and cheese going forward. Interesting if nothing else in regard to where any blocking lands👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    😜🧐Check out the longer term GEFS 0z mean!..I think this would be setting things up nicely as we head towards the start of the meteorological winter! 🥶 

    BF80E59B-BD99-42F7-B9D9-CA4664A1777B.thumb.jpeg.0beb7a900d6eac44ce4dd7195108d146.jpeg17C7EE7A-5A07-43CD-8FEE-0C74B74FDB81.thumb.jpeg.f795eb21121cb8c078d3310ec491029b.jpeg74E0E97C-9560-4C55-934C-E3273C5F289F.thumb.jpeg.d694471cf8224da5715d3fc24a0e8f13.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Incidentally, the northern arm later week 2 continues to strengthen, run by run. that greatly diminishes the chances of HLB to our nnw but doesn’t t preclude a scandi high (or sceuro ......)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.0d60f924d2e44322e1011c2adc0ac4db.png

    All of the models are showing a similar kind of set up over the next 7-10 days.....low pressure somewhere out to the west, with high pressure somewhere to the east. Net flow is mainly from the south/southwest, so it's not going to be especially cold (apart from the days this week with the high sat over the UK).

    ECM day 9/10 is a bit 'if only it were July' this morning:

    image.thumb.png.fdd8f5c869cb79019064f7a353c5003c.pngimage.thumb.png.25d0f57f5b20a7c0e4ae3a9968e65a64.png

    Are the cold November chances starting to go down the chute?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Incidentally, the northern arm later week 2 continues to strengthen, run by run. that greatly diminishes the chances of HLB to our nnw but doesn’t t preclude a scandi high (or sceuro ......)

    image.thumb.png.ce7b2cb67ba26935fab393de79b69061.png

    The day 10-15 clusters don't look particularly cold @bluearmy. The larger cluster is mainly westerly based. The slightly smaller cluster looks more promising.

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.0d60f924d2e44322e1011c2adc0ac4db.png

    All of the models are showing a similar kind of set up over the next 7-10 days.....low pressure somewhere out to the west, with high pressure somewhere to the east. Net flow is mainly from the south/southwest, so it's not going to be especially cold (apart from the days this week with the high sat over the UK).

    ECM day 9/10 is a bit 'if only it were July' this morning:

    image.thumb.png.fdd8f5c869cb79019064f7a353c5003c.pngimage.thumb.png.25d0f57f5b20a7c0e4ae3a9968e65a64.png

    Are the cold November chances starting to go down the chute?

    Would rather have a mild November and a cold first half of December 🥶 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    A latest look at the cpc 500mb anomaly charts days 6-10/8-14

    it looks to me that the +ve heights in the extended moves further north into Scandinavia so we could see a wind source from the east

    610day_03.thumb.gif.689202e26f2bb2d53cdd08bfa3908329.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.7f99057d60cb464c36d31542bcfe0d68.gif

     

     

    Mean upper flow is Southwest sir.. personally i cant see much scope for an Easterly off those charts, unless pressure builds further over Scandinavia and the green flow lines open up a lot more. But we will see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM looks high pressure all the way out to ten days,still plenty of changes regarding exact position 

    of high pressure.Best only to look at fax charts to get the accurate position as temperatures will

    be up for grabs after 6 days as will position of the high pressure centre.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    That low to the SW looks a real pain ..

    It has certainly put a spanner in the works for those wanting High pressure building north ,initially at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Nasty little feature progged for the South early tomorrow morning on the latest GFS Winter over view chart. A parcel of cold air (528 dam )  associated with -in its wrap around. May give a slight covering on the higher ground, possibly Chilterns. Our own snow portal service has picked up this as well in the last report , 1-2 cm is possible.

    C

    winteroverview_20201102_00_030.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    UKV has picked this up also with some sleet/wet snow up over the south Welsh mountains, SW moors and tiny bits showing on the chilterns, although no accumulations being shown by the model. There's also some over the Scottish mountains, with some accumulating snow there. 

    ukv1.png ukv2.png ukv3.png

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