Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry but I think you are confusing the dotted anomaly lines, they do not show any wind direction. The chart are at 500 mb and the green lines are the contour lines, I suppose one could equate them to isobars at 500 mb. The direction of flow is from a westerly point on the chart you show.

Cheers John for pointing that out lol...yes one thought the red was HP and LP was ye old blue I always get confused with the 500mb

[johnholmes]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Cheers John for pointing that out lol...yes one thought the red was HP and LP was ye old blue I always get confused with the 500mb

The comment from mushy would mean thet if a surface high developed over Scandinavia then the flow would be from some sort of easterly point, so in a way the direction you showed 'could' happen but not how you suggested. Sorry if I sound like an old school teacher!

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

The comment from mushy would mean thet if a surface high developed over Scandinavia then the flow would be from some sort of easterly point, so in a way the direction you showed 'could' happen but not how you suggested. Sorry if I sound like an old school teacher!

Thanks again ”Teacher ” never John!!! us younger folk and not to the level of your expertise have to be told before we go off he rails and start stating/posting things that simply aren’t wright

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 15/10/2020 at 12:39, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I wouldn’t get too concerned at the minute I think the models will be chopping and changing quite frequently over the next few weeks with a few things going on, possible hurricane development I would say toward Florida could be most likely but as always models will struggle to pinpoint until / if it has developed also the ECM and GEM latest runs show the high pressure going well into the arctic from the Pacific side I’m not sure whether that is the most likely outcome but anyhow with phase 5 of the MJO does look like some form of blocking will be the likely scenario, with 2 possibilities of tapping into an easterly on these charts 

if the low pressure stays centred enough to our south or indeed if we do end up with the high over Scandinavia.

Slowly we are starting to get towards that pattern it’s around the 192 hour mark which is 9th November (to start looking for the pressure building across scandi) still a bit of wiggle room on the timing and still too far off to be looking for exact details but all very positive and if we can get a cold pool waiting in the wings ️ 

[mushymanrob]

57 minutes ago, swfc said:

Arnt the winds coming in from the west mushy

yes

the closer they are, the stronger the upper flow... but when they open out it suggests a weaker upper flow and a more varied surface flow is possible. on the chart posted the green lines would need to open significantly for a [i]sustained[/i] flow from the eastern quadrant, or even reverse for a strong easterly.

so watch for this happening on subsequent runs, or not... its pure speculation to suggest it will..

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

Astonishingly (in my opinion)!..with all the talk of a long settled spell!..the GEFS 6z mean suggests it will be turning more unsettled from next weekend onwards?

Edited November 1, 2020 by Jon Snow

[damianslaw]

54 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Astonishingly (in my opinion)!..with all the talk of a long settled spell!..the GEFS 6z mean suggests it will be turning more unsettled from next weekend onwards?

The GFS default when not sure what to do is show a rampant atlantic flow, trouble with  GFS is the 4 runs, you can bank on at least one of them showing this for the long range outlook. 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry but I think you are confusing the dotted anomaly lines, they do not show any wind direction. The chart are at 500 mb and the green lines are the contour lines, I suppose one could equate them to isobars at 500 mb. The direction of flow is from a westerly point on the chart you show.

 

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

yes

the closer they are, the stronger the upper flow... but when they open out it suggests a weaker upper flow and a more varied surface flow is possible. on the chart posted the green lines would need to open significantly for a [i]sustained[/i] flow from the eastern quadrant, or even reverse for a strong easterly.

so watch for this happening on subsequent runs, or not... its pure speculation to suggest it will..

 

That’s a seven day mean ensemble chart for week 2 - take account of climatology (which will invariably deliver a westerly flow on the 500mb within those parameters ). There is a slight upper ridge on the mean (in conjunction with an Atlantic trough) - the anomoly shows a propensity for a high to our ne  - it’s v plausible this 8/14 day chart could deliver a flow off the North Sea for a sig part of week 2. Clusters should be examined for more guidance. 

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

That’s a seven day mean ensemble chart for week 2 - take account of climatology (which will invariably deliver a westerly flow on the 500mb within those parameters ). There is a slight upper ridge on the mean (in conjunction with an Atlantic trough) - the anomoly shows a propensity for a high to our ne  - it’s v plausible this 8/14 day chart could deliver a flow off the North Sea for a sig part of week 2. Clusters should be examined for more guidance. 

Yes I do know that b.

I thought my explanations along with those of mushy had helped clear up the original confusion

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Astonishingly (in my opinion)!..with all the talk of a long settled spell!..the GEFS 6z mean suggests it will be turning more unsettled from next weekend onwards?

As i see it based on the anomaly charts, it will become more unsettled from next weekend, but not very much. Just less quiet and calm as its likely to be Wednesday through Saturday. Theres no raging Atlantic on the anomaly charts..  but after a quiet spell with a light Southerly , just a little more mobility. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON out first and it is more amplified than the 00z

12z at 168 v's 00z at 180(12hrs diff)

let's see what the rest of the 12z show later.

 

 

Edited November 1, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[TSNWK]

32 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ICON out first and it is more amplified than the 00z

12z at 168 v's 00z at 180(12hrs diff)

let's see what the rest of the 12z show later.

 

 

icon wheeled out as the starter of the evening runs.. means only one thing... 

Its show time.. here's to a healthy, friendly and frigid 2020 2021 season...

 

[swfc]

12z gfs brings plenty of blocking across most of Europe be it a bit sporadic early on. Basically dry then with the PV staying towards the nnw

Edited November 1, 2020 by swfc

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

12z gfs brings plenty of blocking across most of Europe be it a bit sporadic early on. Basically dry then with the PV staying towards the nnw

Yes and quiet a big block starting to form over Scandi in the extended with a cool continental feed starting to advect west

that pv to the NW would have trouble breaking that down if of course this synoptic was to materialize.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes and quiet a big block starting to form over Scandi in the extended with a cool continental feed starting to advect west

that pv to the NW would have trouble breaking that down if of course this synoptic was to materialize.

Yes the block is substantial but the 850s look toothless to the east. All fi tbh but there you go 

[bluearmy]

That gfs op through week 2 looks pretty plausible against the general means and clusters 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, swfc said:

Yes the block is substantial but the 850s look toothless to the east. All fi tbh but there you go 

That's why i said cool and not cold but baby steps hey!,all JFF at this stage,

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That gfs op through week 2 looks pretty plausible against the general means and clusters 

Looks like the goalposts have shifted again from a Griceland ridge to Scurasain ridge Blue.

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That gfs op through week 2 looks pretty plausible against the general means and clusters 

To me its as ugly as it can get.Unmovable Sceuro high ready to collapse as soon as some energy injects in to Greenland low.Ive seen these so many in recent years just waste weeks and weeks of potential.Maybe I am just being pesimistic after recent winters

[bluearmy]

51 minutes ago, jules216 said:

To me its as ugly as it can get.Unmovable Sceuro high ready to collapse as soon as some energy injects in to Greenland low.Ive seen these so many in recent years just waste weeks and weeks of potential.Maybe I am just being pesimistic after recent winters

It can be much uglier than this jules ! 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It can be much uglier than this jules ! 

Quite ....

 

[swfc]

Pretty concistent ec today and a not to shabby profile. PV weaker to the nw in regard to gfs 12z

[Allseasons-Si]

I suspect the ECM day ten chart could be interesting.

 

[Zak M]

Looks to be heading in the right direction but that high might need shifting to the NW a bit?

Edited November 1, 2020 by Zak M

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Looks to be heading in the right direction but that high might need shifting to the NW a bit?

Indeed. The other positive is the drop of 850s that could drop down threw scan and the east. In theory obviously. OK run tho compared to the gfs 12