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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    If this is worst case scenario then we are in a very good place! A cold end to November is almost guaranteed from this point...

    image.thumb.png.c2d121ffd03aa9f4a37a4832e7694036.png

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Gfs oz takes a less extravagant route this morning altho still a lot of blocking the PV to the nw is more prominent. Maybe more realistic as blue said but again subject to change. Ec looks similar but less bullish than yesterday. All OK and drying out at least. On to the next run 👌👌👌

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Beaten to it by @swfc... 👍

    EC tastier to my eyes... 

    ECH1-240.gif

    gfsnh-0-246 (1).png

    It is griff I agree. Looks primed for a push from the North. Gfs looks to be swinging a bit wildly tho so I guess somewhere in between could be a possibility. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z at T+384 is nae bad... a nice spell of placid weather (at least until the fun and games commence) would do me nicely...

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the 15C uppers have almost vanished, too!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.88d2859b3f36852873d8d5de3245ff07.png

    14 hours ago, Zak M said:

    This is the biggest black hole I've seen...

    hungriestofb.thumb.jpg.4d99fceb552d3a5c299c16b7e6c95061.jpg

    Sorry, I'll leave now 😆

    That's a small Quesar i'm sure i could find a bigger in the northern hemisphere

    image.thumb.png.9d1ca8b86b2b0ddf03bd1d897fedb9d0.pngEdit found one not on a weather forecast unfortunatlly but still i'd say that's 1-0 to me now onto the weather

    Picture above shows something i'm happy about 

    cold chances of a blue on the charts are getting very close now.

    Rdit 

    Quaser picture is above yours

    Edited by hamilton and weather fan 1
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    swing to sceuro ridge rather than griceland in the extended on the overnights. The HLB not quite so evident. even if we do end up with a big sceuro ridge and Atlantic  trough the consequential drive of flow into the arctic to our ne will be of benefit for trop waves headed into the strat ...

    It is important not to over react, run to run on events in week 2.  We still have plenty of amplification showing on the nwp and the mean jet by the end of the ext eps is still more linked up to the south than elsewhere.  It remains interesting ........

    Potentially a November Scandy high...

    Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    swing to sceuro ridge rather than griceland in the extended on the overnights. The HLB not quite so evident. even if we do end up with a big sceuro ridge and Atlantic  trough the consequential drive of flow into the arctic to our ne will be of benefit for trop waves headed into the strat ...

    It is important not to over react, run to run on events in week 2.  We still have plenty of amplification showing on the nwp and the mean jet by the end of the ext eps is still more linked up to the south than elsewhere.  It remains interesting ........

    Getting the sense of deja vu again, this is becoming a regular theme in November, its because everything is happening later, i would rather see a rampant zonal train get underway early and at least it might blow itself out by January, not seeing anything anomalous against recent years here, November is the new October, that is what is throwing everyone IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Potentially a November Scandy high...

    Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

    How many times do we see Greenland highs in the long term output, only to watch them be amended to Scandinavia based heights and eventually to our old friend ‘the mid lat high’. The Greek equivalent of this forum will no doubt be getting interested over the coming days 🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    , i would rather see a rampant zonal train get underway early and at least it might blow itself out by January, not seeing anything anomalous against recent years here, November is the new October, that is what is throwing everyone IMO.

    I’m not sure it works like that though does it? If the PV / zonal train becomes rampant it won’t just blow itself out 🤷🏻‍♂️ It could (and has in the past) gone on until March.
     I get the point however that we have been here before with lots of positive signed early doors, just to have our hopes dashed once winter actually arrives.  At least there’s some interest in the models to keep us entertained fir the next few weeks ....

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Potentially a November Scandy high...

    Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

    I'd be looking more Jan Feb for anything substantial regarding a proper scan block imo. That said the continued heights could bring a surprise early on. I could also be talking tripe nw🙄🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I’m not sure it works like that though does it? If the PV / zonal train becomes rampant it won’t just blow itself out 🤷🏻‍♂️ It could (and has in the past) gone on until March.
     I get the point however that we have been here before with lots of positive signed early doors, just to have our hopes dashed once winter actually arrives.  At least there’s some interest in the models to keep us entertained fir the next few weeks ....

    Yes the PV has no memory does it altho historically November and Dec show high activity during the rapid cooling. The insipid euro heights seem to be more of a recurring theme over the last few winters 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

    On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

    814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

    On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

    814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

    Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

    Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

    End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

    If carlsberg did outlooks...

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

    Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

    End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

    If carlsberg did outlooks...

    Heighths moving to greenland😁😁now that would be a winner. 6z brings back a sw flow in fi and a bit more mobility

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Does anyone else still look at the old GFS? This latest run has a nice Easter for the Southeast and South Especially- would have seen thames streamer setups in that if it were a few weeks later

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    Just now, Kentspur said:

    Does anyone else still look at the old GFS? This latest run has a nice Easter for the Southeast and South Especially- would have seen thames streamer setups in that if it were a few weeks later

    Easter👀👀👀👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    GFS at 9 to 10 days looking very low pressure orientation from west north west.

    Total difference to ECM with high pressure to our north and cool to cold outcome

    over most of U.K. To my unprofessional eye high pressure to dominate the UK

    through most of November in regards to temperatures it’s al about position 

    of high pressure.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    You don't want zonal to hit and hope it blows out by January, it doesn't seem to work like that in the UK. Normally stays zonal and mild till spring begins. Three winters from 2016 have been some of the warmest ever recorded, because of the wretched Zonal train. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

    On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

    814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

    I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E, so as long as the potential is still showing I’m all for it 👍

    22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

     

     

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

    Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

    End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

    If carlsberg did outlooks...

    This might not be far away as models usually overly progressive bringing in greenland high final 3rd of November 🎯

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    13 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E 👍

    22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

     

     

    Sorry but I think you are confusing the dotted anomaly lines, they do not show any wind direction. The chart are at 500 mb and the green lines are the contour lines, I suppose one could equate them to isobars at 500 mb. The direction of flow is from a westerly point on the chart you show.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E 👍

    22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

     

     

    the gaps between the green countour lines would have to widen quite a bit before we had a chance of a more sustained east/northeasterly. That is possible, but by no means a "given".

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    the gaps between the green countour lines would have to widen quite a bit before we had a chance of a more sustained east/northeasterly. That is possible, but by no means a "given".

    Arnt the winds coming in from the west mushy 🤔

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