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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

Gfs oz takes a less extravagant route this morning altho still a lot of blocking the PV to the nw is more prominent. Maybe more realistic as blue said but again subject to change. Ec looks similar but less bullish than yesterday. All OK and drying out at least. On to the next run 👌👌👌

Edited by swfc
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5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Beaten to it by @swfc... 👍

EC tastier to my eyes... 

ECH1-240.gif

gfsnh-0-246 (1).png

It is griff I agree. Looks primed for a push from the North. Gfs looks to be swinging a bit wildly tho so I guess somewhere in between could be a possibility. 

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image.thumb.png.88d2859b3f36852873d8d5de3245ff07.png

14 hours ago, Zak M said:

This is the biggest black hole I've seen...

hungriestofb.thumb.jpg.4d99fceb552d3a5c299c16b7e6c95061.jpg

Sorry, I'll leave now 😆

That's a small Quesar i'm sure i could find a bigger in the northern hemisphere

image.thumb.png.9d1ca8b86b2b0ddf03bd1d897fedb9d0.pngEdit found one not on a weather forecast unfortunatlly but still i'd say that's 1-0 to me now onto the weather

Picture above shows something i'm happy about 

cold chances of a blue on the charts are getting very close now.

Rdit 

Quaser picture is above yours

Edited by hamilton and weather fan 1
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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

swing to sceuro ridge rather than griceland in the extended on the overnights. The HLB not quite so evident. even if we do end up with a big sceuro ridge and Atlantic  trough the consequential drive of flow into the arctic to our ne will be of benefit for trop waves headed into the strat ...

It is important not to over react, run to run on events in week 2.  We still have plenty of amplification showing on the nwp and the mean jet by the end of the ext eps is still more linked up to the south than elsewhere.  It remains interesting ........

Potentially a November Scandy high...

Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

swing to sceuro ridge rather than griceland in the extended on the overnights. The HLB not quite so evident. even if we do end up with a big sceuro ridge and Atlantic  trough the consequential drive of flow into the arctic to our ne will be of benefit for trop waves headed into the strat ...

It is important not to over react, run to run on events in week 2.  We still have plenty of amplification showing on the nwp and the mean jet by the end of the ext eps is still more linked up to the south than elsewhere.  It remains interesting ........

Getting the sense of deja vu again, this is becoming a regular theme in November, its because everything is happening later, i would rather see a rampant zonal train get underway early and at least it might blow itself out by January, not seeing anything anomalous against recent years here, November is the new October, that is what is throwing everyone IMO.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Potentially a November Scandy high...

Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

How many times do we see Greenland highs in the long term output, only to watch them be amended to Scandinavia based heights and eventually to our old friend ‘the mid lat high’. The Greek equivalent of this forum will no doubt be getting interested over the coming days 🥶

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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

, i would rather see a rampant zonal train get underway early and at least it might blow itself out by January, not seeing anything anomalous against recent years here, November is the new October, that is what is throwing everyone IMO.

I’m not sure it works like that though does it? If the PV / zonal train becomes rampant it won’t just blow itself out 🤷🏻‍♂️ It could (and has in the past) gone on until March.
 I get the point however that we have been here before with lots of positive signed early doors, just to have our hopes dashed once winter actually arrives.  At least there’s some interest in the models to keep us entertained fir the next few weeks ....

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43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Potentially a November Scandy high...

Either way, a dry, cool( cold perhaps) November looks a reasonable shout ...

I'd be looking more Jan Feb for anything substantial regarding a proper scan block imo. That said the continued heights could bring a surprise early on. I could also be talking tripe nw🙄🙄

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m not sure it works like that though does it? If the PV / zonal train becomes rampant it won’t just blow itself out 🤷🏻‍♂️ It could (and has in the past) gone on until March.
 I get the point however that we have been here before with lots of positive signed early doors, just to have our hopes dashed once winter actually arrives.  At least there’s some interest in the models to keep us entertained fir the next few weeks ....

Yes the PV has no memory does it altho historically November and Dec show high activity during the rapid cooling. The insipid euro heights seem to be more of a recurring theme over the last few winters 

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No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

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19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

If carlsberg did outlooks...

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

If carlsberg did outlooks...

Heighths moving to greenland😁😁now that would be a winner. 6z brings back a sw flow in fi and a bit more mobility

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Does anyone else still look at the old GFS? This latest run has a nice Easter for the Southeast and South Especially- would have seen thames streamer setups in that if it were a few weeks later

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Just now, Kentspur said:

Does anyone else still look at the old GFS? This latest run has a nice Easter for the Southeast and South Especially- would have seen thames streamer setups in that if it were a few weeks later

Easter👀👀👀👀

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GFS at 9 to 10 days looking very low pressure orientation from west north west.

Total difference to ECM with high pressure to our north and cool to cold outcome

over most of U.K. To my unprofessional eye high pressure to dominate the UK

through most of November in regards to temperatures it’s al about position 

of high pressure.

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You don't want zonal to hit and hope it blows out by January, it doesn't seem to work like that in the UK. Normally stays zonal and mild till spring begins. Three winters from 2016 have been some of the warmest ever recorded, because of the wretched Zonal train. 

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

No mid month northerly here, in fact theres more chance of a Scandi high after mid month according to this chart. But that depends on the mean upper flow weakening over Scandinavia.

On the plus side these charts suggest a lot of drier then average, and rather quiet weather. So a benign pattern emerging after the stormy start.

814day_03.thumb.gif.c7ec7416aecd696d78a261a7d2ef8664.gif

I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E, so as long as the potential is still showing I’m all for it 👍

22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

 

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Took the words out of my mouth mushy...

Jet forces the high back east before splitting...

End result southerly tracking lows zipping past SW England as the scandy heights move west to Greenland later in the month..

If carlsberg did outlooks...

This might not be far away as models usually overly progressive bringing in greenland high final 3rd of November 🎯

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13 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E 👍

22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

 

 

Sorry but I think you are confusing the dotted anomaly lines, they do not show any wind direction. The chart are at 500 mb and the green lines are the contour lines, I suppose one could equate them to isobars at 500 mb. The direction of flow is from a westerly point on the chart you show.

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14 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I’m happy with that, a cool and hopefully a cold flow coming in from the E to N/E 👍

22C48855-9254-4517-AD91-C821B78FDE00.thumb.jpeg.bad06826a634728fe034a3a18b6aa345.jpeg

 

 

the gaps between the green countour lines would have to widen quite a bit before we had a chance of a more sustained east/northeasterly. That is possible, but by no means a "given".

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4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the gaps between the green countour lines would have to widen quite a bit before we had a chance of a more sustained east/northeasterly. That is possible, but by no means a "given".

Arnt the winds coming in from the west mushy 🤔

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