Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    PTB 6 - The biggest off the scale black hole we have ever seen...

    D068B81D-9C35-448E-8632-EEB98F278EF2.thumb.jpeg.f06cfb84ce2f57df60be1a58e38f8be0.jpeg

    This is the biggest black hole I've seen...

    hungriestofb.thumb.jpg.4d99fceb552d3a5c299c16b7e6c95061.jpg

    Sorry, I'll leave now 😆

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The GFS op wasn't an outlier..

    graphe3_1000_298_107___.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    And ECM is screaming the word *POTENTIAL*  at the end of its run too.

    Yes, potentially.

    ECH1-240.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    And ECM is screaming the word *POTENTIAL*  at the end of its run too.

    Indeed. We got a little spoilt with that GFS pearler of a run but this from ECM is well....... Shall we say far from the usual mid November atlantic dross we usually have to suffer. 

    Screenshot_20201031-190621.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    We may be heading toward lockdown but this site is heading toward meltdown. I imagine the GFS 12Z OP FI has got many salivating - it's classic retrogression and were it mid-December rather than mid-November and at T+24 rather than T+348, apart from those claiming it was a "downgrade" and could still go "mammatus verticus", I imagine the snow-chasers would be heading to the lamposts.

    Anyway, this is as irrelevant as a hat-stand in a Transformers movie so instead I'll focus on the medium term and the NH profiles:

    12Z ECM, GEM and GFS OP at T+240:

    image.thumb.png.3aca061e9967ebbb12548ca535d327a2.pngimage.thumb.png.83599ee029ab15c8a317bc1f5f8ccb14.pngimage.thumb.png.e944257e978583cb5843d40776208c04.png

    The key seems to be whether we can get a "clean" displacement of the PV toward Siberia. GFS OP and ECM just about manage it though GEM doesn't going instead for a more defined polar ridging profile which suggests Scandinavian heights rather than Greenland heights. It's perfectly possible as 1962-63 showed to have a strong PV but for it to be oriented to enable heights over Scandinavia. It really needs the core of the PV to be pushed further back into Canada rather than to Siberia and the latter is the key to Greenland height rises and all the fun of retrogression which then brings the trough into Scandinavia.

    At T+240 of course one can only note words like "potential". The form horse looks like heights to the north or east of the British isles at least initially.

    I'd also argue those arguing for retrogression should be careful what they wish for - it's a fine line between a successful transition to a cold N'ly or NNE'ly and a west-based negative NAO which will get you the Greenland heights but a return of milder air. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Last post from me, I’m out of reactions and posting rights blah blah but looking at the GEFS 12z mean there is very strong support for a Scandi high so a blocked pattern beyond the current unsettled spell is the form horse! 🐴.....Ciao!😜

    ps.. the Ecm Northerly didn’t last long did it!🤪

    4D7D7B16-3F60-433B-952F-8A05F4EC7582.thumb.jpeg.f6434646f1d0af27c5a32ca54a3b9a1c.jpeg9BC8BDAD-67A1-4B57-BD6D-2F9D826D90F0.thumb.jpeg.c69a214382f91f7d7b4c3b22b8c70f68.jpeg

     

     

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Haven't worked out how to view the new ECM clusters (keeps saying not working for me), but even the old Icelandic version is clearly showing positive anomalies to the north. While they are there, we might get lucky with early wintriness, but it still needs to be optimal for another month yet

    http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/31/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020103100_360.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

    Indeed. We got a little spoilt with that GFS pearler of a run but this from ECM is well....... Shall we say far from the usual mid November atlantic dross we usually have to suffer. 

    Screenshot_20201031-190621.png

    All I can say is look out for energy coming up from the south...been a feature of the weather over the last few weeks - strange synoptics at this time of year nowdays if there isn't a roaring jet stream. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro at day 10 cuts off the low in the Atlantic and if anything would apply less pressure over Canada allowing a better long term pattern.

    It would seem that the Met Office call was correct and we will see a cold spell heading towards mid month.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Interesting how the favoured point for HLB is retrogressing slowly from scrussian towards gricelandic ...

    Maybe a swing back to scrussian according to the 12z ecm mean.

    Screenshot_20201031-212330.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Maybe a swing back to scrussian according to the 12z ecm mean.

    Screenshot_20201031-212330.png

    And in the extended ....no clear signal on the mean for a visit of (non frosty) winter by mid nov - but a slow steady road to getting the jet linked up to our south as euro high heights gradually fall away. The period entering the final third of the month could be anything and that includes a repeat of 2010. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well.. November begins tomorrow so by mid month the hunt is on for me personally..

    (Its the time of year when Interest grows- esp in these awful times)..

    Its ruddy typical Bonfire night looks just about perfect for outdoor activities as it stands...dry cool sums it up..

    It does look like the high will eventually drift north potentially allowing for some kind of Northerly...solar wise mid Nov the nights are really drawing in which of course can lead to frosts under clear skies...

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    And in the extended ....no clear signal on the mean for a visit of (non frosty) winter by mid nov - but a slow steady road to getting the jet linked up to our south as euro high heights gradually fall away. The period entering the final third of the month could be anything and that includes a repeat of 2010. 

    All very intriguing. Euro heights falling is a good sign. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    fantasy  world   got  POTENTIAL  as some else has  said  to night!!!

    gfs-2-384.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    A bit quieter here this evening... 

    Seems the GFS 18z doesn't take the heights into Greenland whilst they persist over continental Europe and to the East... 

    More runs needed... 😜

    gfsnh-0-294 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-300 (2).png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...