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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    33 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

    anim_wtn8.gif

    Nice one Zak, you know, I would love a potent mid nov Northerly, however unlikely it would seem..but, perhaps we might see an easterly to...don’t rule it out either!!!!!..but, whatever happens it looks 👀 like becoming predominantly settled for some considerable time!!!!🧐😜

     

    ps..someone get rid of these spiders webs..I suffer from arachnophobia!🤡

    2A0096B2-4203-4C8B-8399-F869D296587E.thumb.jpeg.49eeb2f08c673d31208d318d84918cc6.jpeg47A5492D-8DEA-4906-9BA3-1AD000B35E97.thumb.jpeg.113833fa6dbe1cca6b31a24bbfc00fa8.jpeg

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Day 10 ECM

    image.thumb.png.e0973856ec4cf0927b377bdca5bfcef6.png

    Day 16 GFS  (yes, I know.....)

    image.thumb.png.1357cd3e9d1082f0ddb34fec2edfaf17.png

    Whilst details are pointless of course, there is a certain theme developing here that will certainly peak this forum's interest!  There's endless things that could go wrong, but I've enjoyed staring at these charts for the last 10 minutes if nothing else!  Just a slight touch of 2010 about these..... maybe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    We have seen the prospect of mid, high lat blocking toward in FI for a few days now and for now those signals have firmed up but with a shift on emphasis toward Atlantic blocking rather than a Sc/Euro block with the PV moving toward Siberia.

    That may switch back and plenty of time for the blocking signal to flatten out but some will already be reimagining a decade ago.

    AVN_2_2010112100_1.png 

    GFSOPNH06_264_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    31 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    We have seen the prospect of mid, high lat blocking toward in FI for a few days now and for now those signals have firmed up but with a shift on emphasis toward Atlantic blocking rather than a Sc/Euro block with the PV moving toward Siberia.

    That may switch back and plenty of time for the blocking signal to flatten out but some will already be reimagining a decade ago.

    AVN_2_2010112100_1.png 

    GFSOPNH06_264_1.png

     

    The signal has been there for a long time EC46 from 19/10 and even before were showing this change in second week of November trending negative AO and NAO. Not ordinary times we live in. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    12z GFS is showing height rises near Iceland. Let's see how this pans out.

    gfs-0-210.thumb.png.bd0343481e1221383add25a261551373.png

    @210

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Interesting model runs today so far, a flip to something much more settled as we move into November, possibility of a lengthy blocked spell. Shift towards more of a mid Atlantic block ridging north to eventually maybe bring much colder weather, all courtesy of shift in PV to Siberia. Would tie in with la Nina background state. Models may be trying to set up a strong block too soon, but direction of travel appears to be heading in this direction. At a time in the year when we need sunshine I'm not complaining, we could do without flooding and storms right now with everything else going on.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    That blocking over Iceland seen in my previous post starts to migrate to the NW on the 12z GFS. Quite a few models have been showing a blocking over Iceland and Greenland - could this be a sign of something?

    We've got to be careful when looking at charts like these, however - it's still way out in FI and will inevitably change.

    Just looking at this run for fun and it is churning out some pretty stunning charts:

    gfs-0-336.png

    2010 again anyone? 😜

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    This is what you want ....😘

    64B86A45-D1A2-4D6B-9783-3B82F6223E0B.thumb.png.7e1f19f3b0548aa8f47d38b77e1f5940.png

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Here comes the snow on the GFS -

    gfseuw-2-354.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well, if the GFS is going to show them, I'm going to post them!! 

    Wonderous looking charts..... no deep cold yet but still!  

    image.thumb.png.beec417c79a911542d19eb4d10287b08.pngimage.thumb.png.98c2ffac174bca337dfa4a528ae66cb2.png  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.3789f157dbd74288e7e7ed66d8c9091e.pnggfsnh-12-372.thumb.png.c6193cc2db60713d6a831c20a669c0e4.png1354184041_giphy(18).thumb.gif.e511909815568a7943bdf907fd5a40cd.gif

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Aint seen these kinda charts for november since 2010👀!!!amazing stuff!!but will it happen?one things for sure we wre about to enter a cold frosty period at the very least!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    A Saturday night Halloween special from the ecm

    Screenshot_20201031-171335.png

    Sorry.... GFS 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    A Saturday night Halloween special from the ecm

    Screenshot_20201031-171335.png

    I think the witches and ghosts might scare it off and that northerly will be non-existent tomorrow 😅

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14m, 45.9ft)

    GFS been on the rum this evening. If only it were true eh.

    image.thumb.png.d9043f617dfa97a03a38eaf6646df164.png  image.thumb.png.310357287b200da79448e6a36b64122f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Interesting how the favoured point for HLB is retrogressing slowly from scrussian towards gricelandic ...

    All great winters started like this😁

    Edited by booferking
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