Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

Re, gefs, N/W strong pressure anomaly on the control run 👌

The GEM is similar with very strong heights 1070mb over Greenland

 both well into fl though but loving this chart 

5D76FA9E-BB1A-4E8C-B709-3F68A06CA034.thumb.png.9c80d24332470d5ea0dadfc1a4195e4a.png3BF83B18-BF5F-4960-802D-E9DA550D507B.thumb.jpeg.c91f843c1038e8302fce107e3ff0ea03.jpeg

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out perturbation 21 of the GFS ensembles... very cold chart this is. Unlikely to come off though

gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.d9035dadfe87e7526c0aeb8cf2d869c0.png   gens-21-0-216.thumb.png.c0a2bc1d0bc184959cda7ebbbbb9050d.png

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Some incredibly blocked charts coming up!  It's been 10 years since that incredible December, perhaps due another good one?

Don’t forget the first half of November was pretty zonal as I recall with little sign on the public nwp of what was to come until we got to early part of November and a gfs op picked it all up 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z GEM is showing the cold snap taking place further east from this mornings run...

gem-0-234.thumb.png.2a4f938852b43aab84b38750e1251202.png   gem-1-234.thumb.png.e713b0883210742dbd36a76af38517b7.png

And here's the NH view @240:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.1c4ed4a2ab2bf109835f9913b4542e6a.png

Could be quite chilly if this was to come off and it wouldn't surprise me either if there would be snow down to lower levels on this chart.

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d say the odds of a cold or colder November look significantly better than average at the moment! Some very nice charts and forecasts around at the moment!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, and next chart, setup is 4 months too late!

ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

Quite the chart isn't it? That HP kind of stalls there as well throughout the run. Just imagine if it was summer, that would produce a few days of very warm and hot weather! Quite reminiscent of August this year.

Summer needs to come fast 🤤

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Here's the GFS 12Z's take on November 15: h500slp.png

And here's the same day in 2010: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101115.gif

SHEET!😬

I couldn’t get that link to open ? Just in case anybody else had the same problem.....but it could be just me 🤔

gfs-2010111512-0-6_xxw6.png

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

I couldn’t get that link to open ? Just in case anybody else had the same problem.....but it could be just me 🤔

gfs-2010111512-0-6_xxw6.png

 

 

No, neither could I... Hence the reference to bed linen!😁

  • Haha 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Frankly I’m surprised by the way the GEFS 12z mean / GFS 12z op show such a relatively short settled spell followed by a return to unsettled considering how bullish Exeter are now about a prolonged settled outlook until late November but there are some nice looking 12z members and the ECM 12z op shows high pressure eventually dominant and I stick by what I said this morning about a predominantly settled outlook too!!!🧐😜☀️😁

DB2332FF-F411-479C-8117-6F1BF0D63D78.thumb.png.2d53bd4a5d727673e8c817cdc7f38dc5.png6C7EABBD-0BC8-4FEE-94B3-E4B24750599C.thumb.png.d18034507118862e17b6b8c41f2c677c.png0F9E0693-3DE3-4C69-A92D-00D175D9DC9E.thumb.png.f6bc4e2d9272a20f017d4b081a883a26.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

anim_tri3.gif

On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM really hot on high pressure at higher latitudes in recent runs - could be a chilly mid month

The op run agrees  this morning . Lovely ending and few frames later would be a boom . 

2ED4A019-D2E6-477B-8F18-09BBD252BF23.png

9DABDB72-FA64-42D4-83FE-56D3E656408C.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, IDO said:

The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

anim_tri3.gif

On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

This continues to be fascinating (frost and sunlight are perfectly acceptable to me, anything more only a bonus), remarkable that the modelling from a month ago remains on track (for now)... 

Part of my interest in the models thread isn't to wish a specific weather pattern (despite my own preferences and bias) but rather to see what skill the models perform at. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...