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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 hour ago, That ECM said:

    1st post of the new season. That’ll work. Greetings fellow snow nutters and also to a few strange people who don’t like it. 😄😄🤣👍

    C4C2C5BF-963F-47B9-9A7A-023898B6A7C2.png

    Guess I'm a strange person then. 😉

    Anyway - some of the GFS perturbations get close and even dip below the -5c isotherm near the end of the run... this could be something we might want to keep a close eye on.

    ensembles.jpg

    Edited by Zak M
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    What's happened FAX charts? not updated for ages, noticed also last 2 days no UKMO 120 chart?

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    i know  its deep lala  land  but are we allowed  to say  the s word  yet!!!

    gfs-2-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    What's happened FAX charts? not updated for ages, noticed also last 2 days no UKMO 120 chart?

    I’m wondering the same, have viewed them twice a day for xx years!!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Well, I'm sure the GFS 12Z OP FI has attracted plenty of attention.

    The NH profiles at T+240 this evening: - GFS, GEM and ECM respectively.

    image.thumb.png.812482ec4cd7232ffcdb85fda756fcb8.pngimage.thumb.png.b9bab9a3e95459464405d286197c4f72.pngimage.thumb.png.b5f5f5bbb9835901fe69174c4d6c9600.png

    One lobe of the vortex is where you'd expect it to be while the other is over Siberia (again as you might expect).  Not quite sure what to make of it at this time but I'm not really seeing a raging Atlantic and a zonal train. Hints of heights over Scandinavia but nothing substantial.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    47 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

    I’m wondering the same, have viewed them twice a day for xx years!!

    This on the site

    October 2020. (20:30) utc

    Most charts are not updating.This is caused by a gateway server that is malfunctioning.
    The gateway server does not host weathercharts.org. Consequently have no control when the fault is remedied.
    Once engineers clear the gateway server fault, all UKMO charts on this webpage will automatically update.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    This will do for the time being

    high-and-low-pressure.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Surface pressure charts indicating areas of high and low pressure and a guide to interpreting weather data

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Short term, more heavy rain, strong winds and very mild temps.

    Thankfully come Tuesday onwards the Atlantic is forecast to blow itself out somewhat and we see high pressure take hold bringing a welcome respite and some much needed dry sunny weather hopefully. Frost risk and possible fog.

    Longer term, models keen on quickly shunting heights aside ho our east and we end up with a southerly draw before signs of the Atlantic reawakening but with much less petrol in the tank than now, and perhaps coming unstuck against robust heights to our east which in turn might influence things and we a more concerted quieter colder period. This scenario is shown by GFS.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Evening all

    some juicy charts(NH) popping up in the extended on the gfs/gefs 12z and these have been showing up quite regularly for the past few days

    postage stamps gefs12z at 384

    gens_panel_yvu2.thumb.png.b14f7352145fe94841ce4a368ae36e8b.png

    https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=384

    the cpc  are slightly coming on board re:-Scandi ridge starting to show it's hand into the extended

    610day_03.thumb.gif.699bee604dcd30e33c4501da967d8892.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.bdb471d61592d03db8da6b49dd296b15.gif

    ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

    whether this gains a foothold,time will tell

    a look at the AO and we start to see a tanking into -ve neg values into the extended

    ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.d22fd8fd3fe655303f34c99660a8d240.gif

    lastly a look at the De- built ens from the ecm and the easterlies are gaining traction now(black circle),there where flatline westerlies a few days ago

    eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.98563bc7b0933dbdd4f0ac9c17b78db8.png

    WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

    Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange...

    well some think it might be too early for some cold and snow but is it?

     

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    18z GFS..so far so good 😊 gfsnh-0-312_dts9.png

    The gfs ship just misses our Island but NH'y it has a split trop through the Urals and beyond,different to the 12z but the theme is still the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    23 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    well some think it might be too early for some cold and snow but is it?

    Never too early for cold and snow! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    Never too early for cold and snow! 😉

    Had snow falling within the rain on November 14th last year. A bit early for serious wintriness but was the earliest instance of snow falling here since November 2012 which was on the 4th. Certainly some interesting charts appearing. I’ll just be glad to dry out for a few days after the coming deluge which will fittingly close this very wet month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The NOAA/CPC are upgrading there MJO plots:-

    We are in the process of upgrading these plots to provide a more reliable service. The aesthetics of some plots will change over the next several weeks as we roll out the new code base, but the underlying data will be the same. Please send any questions or comments to [email protected] Thank you for your patience.

    some are still the same but the ECM and a few others have changed/upgraded.

    diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.8415a44548098e9eedfc86ff55005877.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.0e92a707f1788493bbf85e7dea850dd2.gif

     

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Had snow falling within the rain on November 14th last year. A bit early for serious wintriness but was the earliest instance of snow falling here since November 2012 which was on the 4th. Certainly some interesting charts appearing. I’ll just be glad to dry out for a few days after the coming deluge which will fittingly close this very wet month.

    Bet that was more snow last November than you saw throughout winter?!  Hopefully the recent interesting charts will come to fruition!  Agree, it will be nice to get a few dry days in the near future.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    53 minutes ago, Don said:

    Bet that was more snow last November than you saw throughout winter?!  Hopefully the recent interesting charts will come to fruition!  Agree, it will be nice to get a few dry days in the near future.

    Correct. Only other instances were wet snow within showers on turbo charged westerlies lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    A lot of amplification  and split vortices in gefs fi 

    looks like a general rise In heights to our east checking with the eps though still with some west to east movement off the Atlantic - assume we will see troughs stagnate and split n/s against the block. Would imagine sceuro rather than scandi but if we get more momentum in the southern split of the troughing then we could see some european heights dropping which leads to the easterly or sou’easter talk we’ve seen 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just looking at the latest models, the GFS 0z op idea of turning more unsettled following a brief settled spell doesn’t have much support because the GEFS 0z mean suggests a generally prolonged settled (anticyclonic) spell..so, I’m thinking..💭 🤔  once it becomes settled, it should stay predominantly settled with most of any unsettled conditions deflected well away from the u k!🧐😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    50 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Just looking at the latest models, the GFS 0z op idea of turning more unsettled following a brief settled spell doesn’t have much support because the GEFS 0z mean suggests a generally prolonged settled (anticyclonic) spell..so, I’m thinking..💭 🤔  once it becomes settled, it should stay predominantly settled with most of any unsettled conditions deflected well away from the u k!🧐😜

    I think that is a good call. The cut-off trough around T216 causing some algorithmic uncertainty on the 0z but corrected towards the mean on the 06z:

    The 06z at D13:gfs-0-294.thumb.png.003d2a95948c2ff9fbd355d26d13c8f4.png

    How the 0z and 06z differed in the synoptic at around D9:

    gfs-0-222.thumb.png.3ad0aeca2ceec08ad3d964433e63380b.pnggfs-0-216.thumb.png.c275e3498608262addb49293681a2964.png

    GEM was similar to the GFS 0z, ECM UK higher anomalous pressure.

    So hopefully as we enter November a more sustained drier period?

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Just had a chat with our forecast providers about the current view on the various models. Seems the projected  upper cut off low to the SW of the British Isles in the medium term forecast is causing a few problems with its behaviour  and is producing very variable and possibly unreliable surface analysis in the longer term charts. Their own longer term charts show quite a large + pressure anomaly  to the NW of Britain and a equally large  negative pressure anom west of the Azores.  So what does that mean ?  Confused / Yes.  There appears something that is unusual to the norm in the way the pressure patterns are behaving so far this Autumn. Whether the lower than average SST in the Eastern Atlantic is having an affect, time will tell. All I can report is the snow fall amount and retention at around 1500m has been quite remarkable, especially as the 850mb temps have not been that much colder than normal . All fascinating to watch and unfold. Hope the rainfall does not cause to much problems over the coming days for you lot back in Blighty.

    C

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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