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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    34 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Can certainly see interesting charts from a cold POV appearing over the next few weeks anim_qzt7.gif 

    You can see how a +NAMT event reflects on to +NAO next week,but then after day 15+ it may open the door for a Sceuro high to make a push westwards.Fingers crossed

     

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Certainly a good leap off the diving board.. as we enter/move into November. Some stark 500 height plots for an early blocking sequence scenarios.    And I’m personally tuned up via the lack of early bank- Pacific ridge anomalies... obviously early days... but with certain interest!...

    23EC0556-BD0C-4389-B283-FB5470A6B4C4.png

    77370537-F5BD-4E6A-9A56-F54E4C6F437B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Certainly a good leap off the diving board.. as we enter/move into November. Some stark 500 height plots for an early blocking sequence scenarios.    And I’m personally tuned up via the lack of early bank- Pacific ridge anomalies... obviously early days... but with certain interest!...

    23EC0556-BD0C-4389-B283-FB5470A6B4C4.png

    77370537-F5BD-4E6A-9A56-F54E4C6F437B.png

    Fits in with a lot of LRF predictions for a Nina winter - the Pacific high to really intensify through the second half of winter and likely reduce our chances of cold through Jan and Feb. The first half however.....very interesting as you say!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Just had a look 👀 at the latest models and on the face of it, it seems as though the upcoming anticyclonic spell has become more diluted, meaning, weaker height rises in the vicinity of the u k with ridging rather than a full blown intensifying anticyclone...BUT..it’s certainly not game over in terms of a nice crisp fine spell with overnight / morning fog & frosts according to the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z ensemble mean, as just two examples!!!!!!🧐😜
    4FFFA0D4-E216-4412-A8FF-2ABA6F671AF3.thumb.png.64a891e9dda82fda6f2d081bdcbc1476.png33D2C5DD-7D1C-478B-846E-BAB7CD240A2C.thumb.png.e9390054442658c55847e31cdeca29e9.png5AA2A393-A127-4291-9476-EAB23AF1DE3C.thumb.png.678eb79a313d9e82de3288f6970b27ea.pngFCA937CF-E625-43A8-A462-AC045B8202BA.thumb.png.24ac22aa4382614732ef7d6a23dfe543.png5288B321-7E9A-4E5B-A538-9F821DB5CE1F.thumb.gif.b2f94846a4f763987fd78ee0388689ad.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfsp are not updating regularly but this mornings 00z run just popped up on meteorites 

    those of a coldie disposition shouldn’t look at the back end of week 2 hemispherically to avoid server overload .....

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Quite liking the gfs 12z be it fi. Good heights pushing threw svalbard and a better run. 👌👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Gfsp are not updating regularly but this mornings 00z run just popped up on meteorites 

    those of a coldie disposition shouldn’t look at the back end of week 2 hemispherically to avoid server overload .....

    Give us a clue blue 😁😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Ooooooh, hello

    image.thumb.png.252bcc1a2c5bfd1087abc91c1f417eb3.png

    A pity it's miles out into FI

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    12z Is a peach for continental chill out past day 12

    054F66AE-E51B-4C2D-BC61-96567B8B16AA.thumb.jpeg.0ad6decde9bad500176d312f5e14d320.jpeg

    Yes Steve great 850s and the heights are heading nnw👌👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Now the 12z GFS is pretty interesting... -6c uppers for the east coast!

    gfs-0-378.thumb.png.5e819ecff2c82320a603504c2171689c.png   gfs-1-378.thumb.png.ecaa0bd48695bb7e3f3cae1b0bf665d5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Yes, yes it's in FI but the NH view is nice to look at

    image.thumb.png.5c5388488c503f6d6c8713a54f150587.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    S S S SNOW 😍❄️🥶gfs-2-384_nye9.png

    If that verifies it will mean the October Fog Index is a load of old cobblers lol🤐😪😲🤕

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    If that verifies it will mean the October Fog Index is a load of old cobblers lol🤐😪😲🤕

    You could make a last minute switch-up..

    No fog = snowy winter? 😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    12z Is a peach for continental chill out past day 12

    054F66AE-E51B-4C2D-BC61-96567B8B16AA.thumb.jpeg.0ad6decde9bad500176d312f5e14d320.jpeg

    Is it not a tad too early to get a real bite from the east? in 2010 it was the very end of November!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Gfsp are not updating regularly but this mornings 00z run just popped up on meteorites 

    those of a coldie disposition shouldn’t look at the back end of week 2 hemispherically to avoid server overload .....

    The gfs 12z had a good go at repeating this morning's Gfsp.😉

    gfsnh-0-384.png

    gfsnh-0-384 (1).png

    Edited by booferking
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    4 hours ago, jules216 said:

    You can see how a +NAMT event reflects on to +NAO next week,but then after day 15+ it may open the door for a Sceuro high to make a push westwards.Fingers crossed

     

    A relaxing of the destructive interference caused by the AAM spike is what will restore the Niña base state and thereby the North Atlantic ridge. Not so much opening the door as shutting the window....

    From there I still see the last week of November as the realistic beginning of any cold interest. That first week I suspect will be a NW flow primarily and more cold rain than white diamonds....but the ridge may just gain traction into Greenland as December begins, assisted by lag impacts of wave 2 forcing underway next week. A cold start to December? Maybe.

    Evidence? This from ECM extended - not the first run to flag the ridge for the end of a November. image.thumb.png.7e33a8f611e57284d662c746c90de226.png
     

    And to add a bit of cannon fodder spice - the most recent CFS monthly for December reflects pretty closely what I see as our best hope for the month. Ridge holding into Greenland as the vortex struggles to kick on and the early winter Niña base state set within a lowering GWO orbit holds sway. Low heights digging into Western Europe underneath. 
     

    image.thumb.png.76182a0272dc6667e3383381c2f7f471.png
     

    Even though long range forecasting is a fool’s errand I do enjoy these early season musing opportunities...

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Almost certainly... But at least the Hunt is On!:cold-emoji:

    That feed from the continent would sure be chilly. Low single figure max temps for a few I'd have thought, especially given weak solar input.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    That feed from the continent would sure be chilly. Low single figure max temps for a few I'd have thought, especially given weak solar input.

    Aye Crewe, I agree, things could indeed feel quite unpleasant -- though the North Sea is still quite warm, at this time of year...?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

     though the North Sea is still quite warm, at this time of year...?

    Yep, though that could certainly work in our favour if we can get any sort of decently cold uppers dragged across it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I know the ensemble spaghetti doesn't tell the whole story but, out in FI, the Operational 12z GFS was not an outlier. One of the colder options but not an outlier

    image.thumb.png.e0e49f95e12491b21c1f75be23bc58dd.png

    Control looks interesting

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Well, the GFS control isn't as interesting as I thought it might be. Cold though

    image.thumb.png.e52d6cd4d67bbb1d0a00f9ac92b09430.png

    Edited by LRD
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