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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    54 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    John it was a joke as some could see 🙄

     

    BFTP

    If you say so; another one day hope, you might actually use charts to illustrate you suggestions

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    If you say so; another one day hope, you might actually use charts to illustrate you suggestions

    I have re chances in early Nov.....but Xmas....I don’t think so...there are no charts...except CFS....and they as you say are pointless

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
    49 minutes ago, LRD said:

    So, gone is the previously progged 'heatwave' high building from the south to be replaced by a cooler high building in from the West - with some cold air possibly trapped underneath it

    Foggy and frosty would be nice and autumnal 

    Got to say if this comes off bravo to the Met Office. They've been banging the 'settling down' drum for a while now

    It would be the perfect weather for the time of yr. My favourite weather type ar this time of yr. I dont want mild muck,its too early for any meaningful cold spell. So a cool hp would be nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Rutting already and its only october🤣🤣🤣would suggest a settled spell mid November but the jet is so volatile given the temp gradient over the USA who knows. Relax guys👌👌👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Primed. Tic toc💣

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    a settled day, so 1st day of UK national lockdown

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Great looking ec at day 10.problem is the word 10 but still looks primed to move heights nnw. Early days and remember it's still October 👌👌👌

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    14 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Hopefully some early winter❄️ to follow shortly after😉

    bit early I feel for areas away from the north, late Nov really when winter possible realistically low levels south

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking 👀 at the GEFS 12z there are some hints of wintry weather towards mid nov, all a long way off but the way I currently see things, high pressure will build in during the second half of next week but it may not necessarily stick around for very long..?🧐😜 ❄️ 🥶 

    BF5D7171-687E-47AC-90DF-6475D255E0F6.thumb.png.2f8538e1c96a3e16776d148efb2c3989.pngFA410256-2DAA-4A33-84DB-905B214661B4.thumb.png.6a817a531ac29a23e1d7f6e123be19a0.pngBCD9796F-CA10-4BD2-8BF2-5155623D6FE6.thumb.png.fd0eb81d607d794a524c0db2a0b2ce87.pngAE4697E5-45ED-415C-8060-8F493A55D313.thumb.png.c0ad9192b0c24336e1f1fda6b54b399b.pngB98E3827-5CB0-47EB-87CF-D20B35C9FB25.thumb.png.5b2498faf221930153ce71bdbfd5c48a.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Strong build of HP from the south-west more or less certain next week so, as others have said, perhaps a "traditional" early November spell of fog and frost by night and sparkling chilly sunny days - we'll see.

    From there, plenty of possible evolutions - I note both ECM and GFS in FI are looking to break the PV from its usual home in NE Canada and perhaps send it over to Siberia which is always welcome by those who want to see colder conditions. 

    The Northern Hemisphere profiles from the 12Z GEM OP, GFS OP and ECM at T+240:

    image.thumb.png.a146abf7da4d9463d4ba74f54b4f08c9.pngimage.thumb.png.67dc3cec3cba53a4398fb94ed4dbdd6f.pngimage.thumb.png.436ec2f87dc89b984ec98b361c628dd1.png

    ECM holds the HP over south west Britain while GFS OP has transferred the HP east and GEM has a ridge with the PV perhaps moving over the Pole.

    Plenty of interest as we move through the first half of November.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models showing a significant change in about a weeks time, gone is the rampant atlantic which is set to bring copious rainfall for many over the days ahead with frontal system after frontal system, replaced by an amplified flow, jet buckling and high pressure building in, settling things down and the promise of some sunshine! will have forgot what it looks like and a drying out, clearer skies should bring an increased risk of fog and frost, something we've not had much of so far this Autumn.

    Longer term  divergence - some models shows heights advecting west and allowing a flow from the NW to take hold, others pull heights further east maintaining a drier theme.

    The La Nina background state at this time of year would favour the former scenario, heights migrating to the west and a colder flow from a N to W direction, driest conditions reserved for the south and south west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Yes @Jon Snow,there is some beauties and i cherry picked the cold ones obviously😜

    Pert 12,16

    gensnh-12-1-384.thumb.png.05d2f13ba7daaa11e4dcc434d3da0c2b.pnggensnh-12-0-384.thumb.png.c8854085fd2a22491337d7ada788a85d.png

    gensnh-16-1-384.thumb.png.b105f653cc3d22c11df8cf9039136dd0.pnggensnh-16-0-384.thumb.png.7e859937d068235b23ad6450aee5f454.png

    the gfs wasn't bad either synoptic wise,do i spot an arctic rabbit in there somewhere😄

    gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.0175871b7355b1872042fee0dd42ec44.pngimages.thumb.jpg.0b1760521aefcff3e64d16659db806fd.jpg

    and like others have mentioned,the ECM looks promed to retrogress the high west/NW

    all JFF but they keep on showing good synoptic charts

    there is nothing lurking in the cpc woodshed though so i am sat on the fence at the mo,too early anyway but if the cold does come mid Nov,i will take it.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.1fe576143c3e4a6a5a1657f2850b80e4.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.d57ed09aeea6cecaafd69fe96e2351db.gif

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC continues to advertise a settling down as we head through next week.. 

    Thankfully !!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    two days on and the features  A and B advertised by the ec spreads are firming up - the Siberian side lost its shape on the spreads day 9 so it’s no surprise to see that area less certain, run to run 
     

    24CF6A6B-49E3-4AF9-9F27-3D2633CC8095.thumb.jpeg.b23cc81e57f3d3c73b0f5836c78946b6.jpeg     A5A02F07-DF2E-493E-8B97-CA4014DFD661.thumb.jpeg.0c558dfb9b815f1f5b463094fa3b99c8.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

    As others have said, settled weather is now forecast from migrating Atlantic high, rather than the previously forecasted EU high. In more reliable timeframe of 1 week, too, so looking good for those that love cool, dry and sunny autumnal weather (like me)..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

    As others have said, settled weather is now forecast from migrating Atlantic high, rather than the previously forecasted EU high. In more reliable timeframe of 1 week, too, so looking good for those that love cool, dry and sunny autumnal weather (like me)..

    Me too ...

    I glanced at EC and yes, temps should begin dropping away nicely next week under clearer skies..

    Appealing to me too..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Me too ...

    I glanced at EC and yes, temps should begin dropping away nicely next week under clearer skies..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The overview chart from this mornings ECM High Res does offer the prospect of some nice chilly settled conditions with its positioning of the high and a cold front heading down the North Sea. Seems to be on its own at this stage with the mean model runs having the high further to the SE. However, GFS and ECM both showing a cut off low to the SW of The British Isles by day 10 , this should help to disrupt the Atlantic trough and zonal flow for a while.  Looking at the outer time range of the GFS control run, high pressure is dominant to the North of Britain with an Easterly flow developing.

    C

    overview_20201028_00_240.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS @ T+165... If only it were January!

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 06Z @ T+231...

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And November Fog, a piece that the late, great Frank Muir once described, perfectly, on Face The Music:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 18z / 0z wasn’t without interest for coldies towards mid nov with some wintry potential...a nice alternative to high pressure stagnating over or close to the u k for 2 weeks plus of nothingness!!!!🧐😜 🥶 ❄️ 🍒 
    275507CB-8A29-4C94-8D6A-72E93BCF9583.thumb.png.92d8334dbedb14b369137f6587d10110.png0A04D336-4430-40A6-8267-AE46807CFF55.thumb.png.9fc346c345887f81904a2dbec839efc0.png400D0782-56E1-4302-ACD0-002EA6EE64CB.thumb.png.d7642ce08ad284b7eb4c5346360b40de.png4B8B8A67-4866-467B-9B81-29A5AEDA7E6A.thumb.png.da14550f8d64c5b44c063cb20b5ef049.pngAB8195CC-33BF-4AC5-A0DB-7C56D3B4A6A4.thumb.png.a24d9f24370ffbf74397da201d097e68.pngB8DEAAC4-F288-4439-90A6-8386709D7966.thumb.png.5750349d3e5c4c426d01af289ab8faab.pngB0004980-F90A-4782-97B7-FA18AAA049C5.thumb.png.7f8538e392f09dc6c6aa45a75783feb3.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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