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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    NOAAs are slowly evolving a weak pressure rise to our South into early November, but still with a moderate upper flow. Remaining unsettled but with the usual NW/SE split and with periods of drier weather more prevalent then the more north tracking low pressure systems. Mild.

     

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

     

    spacer.png GFS 0Z for 10th Nov

     

    Could be quite chilly in a couple of weeks time according to GFS 0Z perhaps ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.72b2e6eeff3eb3b6282bb144f9168e11.png

    ecmwf is looking exciting for all you cold lovers and it also offers something for people who like warmth. image.thumb.png.f9234ad38786eeb1fc2f060cd60af1ef.png

    and for people who like in the middle. image.thumb.png.26398e6a4d11eb45cf0f6bdfce661b35.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    The GFS is still churning out those cold charts in FI. And that's a -8c isotherm present for northern Scotland.

    gfs-0-312.thumb.png.7c9f590a012e25b4c8cfdf8b23158dfd.png   gfs-1-312.thumb.png.bacbf64c350baf29f3f154b5ef14c47e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.371fde080242cc308aeb31ad1d03e33c.pngimage.thumb.png.d9f4a4f9542205265a1f2fc743c138e4.png

    ECM is pretty bullish about a rise in pressure around day 12-13ish again. It got it wrong last time, but with more model support (GEM and GFS) this time, a more settled spell through early November is certainly plausible. 

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro has an improved polar profile however is largely zonal through day 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.42023c838601f0bc1d0643ebea027c13.png

    Cold trying to break through by next Thursday. but looking like some warmth from the north keeping the cold at bay shame for early winter hopes but then again it is over a wekk away. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    First proper Autumn high? Just in time for bonfire night? Might not stick around too long mind you...

    86B013C5-2F4D-4B51-9355-1E8CE8A7422E.thumb.jpeg.82aae30805c1eb50cd2ef54e258d7bb3.jpeg

    14FAD6D0-C488-4591-A876-DAB4C55F8DC3.thumb.png.2cae025ae1d0f0f5207d939082276b1b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    feel balmy? temps at 6am, cooler many times in July!

    ukmaxtemp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    GFS 12Z was definitely an warm outliner  in long range ( 4-7th) november

    Dille.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    For all of us who don't welcome early season nuisance cold:👍

    image.thumb.png.26398e6a4d11eb45cf0f6bdf

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    The trend towards a period of high pressure as we move into Novembrr has been signposted for a while.

    My hope was the HP could orientate to our NE or ENE,neither look likely at present.

    Meanwhile the +NAO regime will mean cold will bottle up at Northerly latitudes..

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  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    EC pants for Sunday! where UKMO and GFS good, even if wet, rather at 17 degrees than 7

    ECM1-144.GIF?26-0gfs-0-144.png?12UW144-21.GIF?26-18

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    12 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Both the GFS and GEM do build high pressure over the U.K. into week 2.

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.2d27aa2f43652e9016329891248ad073.png

    GEM

    image.thumb.png.46e3a83792f5f4e46097ec03ca04666a.png

     

    A long way off though.

    Indeed and all subject to huge change imo

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    The trend towards a period of high pressure as we move into Novembrr has been signposted for a while.

    My hope was the HP could orientate to our NE or ENE,neither look likely at present.

    Meanwhile the +NAO regime will mean cold will bottle up at Northerly latitudes..

    Never underestimate the Atlantic, it rules, especially from Nov to last day of Feb

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Is there a chance of more colder weather as we head into the second week of November? Some GFS perturbations think so... Obviously it's too far away to be certain, but could this be signalling something? 🥶

    gens-10-1-360.thumb.png.59c190342604a373b2807925243dc45f.png   gens-10-0-360.thumb.png.526ee7e0c43de64b53d4b61d9db98359.png   gens-10-1-372.thumb.png.74e0c985d96e6a0bb1ed2cc7d4895afd.png   gens-10-0-372.thumb.png.bee322f0cae71072248e3b1e7769d525.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Another interesting run from the ECM looking at the bigger picture for the end of Autumn. Nearly a split PV there...slowly slowly catchy monkey 🐒 
    ECH1-216_odr4.GIF

    Our old dark purple friend is lurking menacingly in its usual spot in the NW...let’s hope it doesn’t ruin this winter like the last.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    On 22/10/2020 at 20:35, Tim Bland said:

    There’s always a few deep depressions around in mid autumn, but early November looks relatively settled to me, especially further south 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Looking less and less settled Tim isn’t it?

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Another look at the spreads at day 10 reveals a lot of scatter apart from three features 

    C53610FD-8EB9-4E61-809C-8FFC4D82108E.thumb.jpeg.9ab576620e7eacae000961a655f8f772.jpeg

    A = Canadian vortex 

    B = Siberian daughter vortex 

    C = Azores ridge 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    There’s been quite a big lurch to colder/blocked outcomes in medium-longer range, the N Atlantic ridging is set to return with chilly N/NW winds across most of Europe, question is how long will this feature sustain? Is the AAM doomed to crash, and mobility resume? There’s an increasing suggestion of Ural blocking in November becoming a feature, I think this is worth watching for early winter hopes.

    74377F27-C6DD-40FD-8051-897B39ACA178.thumb.png.53b4f6fa8a926064b1da95b173adb39a.png4A28B386-073B-4AB7-B8B5-D0D02FD01789.thumb.gif.4cb091a11821fbed2e0f1c58a4666dac.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    A less positively nuanced NAO towards month end than previous run 

    looks to be more open to some colder outcomes with mid Atlantic ridging and some sceuro troughing 

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