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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Here"s the 192hr charts (apart ftom Icon which is 180hr). There is effort to build in hp in some, but form horse would be less settled than more settled IMO. (at least in Ireland where I'm based).

GEMOPEU00_192_1-1.png

ECMOPEU00_192_1-1.png

ICOOPEU00_180_1-1.png

GFSOPEU00_192_1-1.png

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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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20 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

Below are the 144hr for Gem, gfs, ecm, icon, ukmo. Cant see how we can get from these to a settled spell for beginning Nov. Atlantic too active and no blocking that could help.

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

ICOOPEU00_144_1.png

GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

GEMOPEU00_144_1.png

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

What puzzles my mind is the phantom -NAO signal on EC46d starting from 5th November when there is no suggestion for this in the extended range. The 16d mean from this morning EPS never drops below +2C at 850hPa for near my location at 650m.asl. The settled period advocated by long range UKMO with frost will probably ne achieved from a huge Euro high that would occcupy the whole continent nearly.This is where on the weather regime charts when it shows block its most likely European block not a proper NAO or Scandi block.The upper vortex meanwhile with this poor tropospheric configuration strenghtens. A far cry from any moderate/strong Nina analogs which nearly all show mid Atlantic ridge and Sceuro trough

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12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

What puzzles my mind is the phantom -NAO signal on EC46d starting from 5th November when there is no suggestion for this in the extended range. The 16d mean from this morning EPS never drops below +2C at 850hPa for near my location at 650m.asl. The settled period advocated by long range UKMO with frost will probably ne achieved from a huge Euro high that would occcupy the whole continent nearly.This is where on the weather regime charts when it shows block its most likely European block not a proper NAO or Scandi block.The upper vortex meanwhile with this poor tropospheric configuration strenghtens. A far cry from any moderate/strong Nina analogs which nearly all show mid Atlantic ridge and Sceuro trough

Thanks Jules, very informative to a novice here.👍

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Looks like drying out later on in the  period.Where the High pressure locates itself will be the key if we are to get some early cold weather in,for a change.

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Well according to the NOAA 500mb anomaly charts theres still no settled spell with high pressure in control, they retain a moderate/strong westerly sourced mean upper flow with a slight rise in pressure so possibly not as wet in the south, but according to that source the outlook for the next 2 weeks remains unsettled. We may get transient ridges, but these charts do not support the current ECMs version of events.

Sorry, as i know most of you dont relish a period of Atlantic sourced weather, but according to these charts, that is precisely whats on offer. Personally, i wouldnt bet against them being nearer the mark, but we shall see, they arent correct all the time.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

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Thank you @Tamara, as always, for your in-depth, well-researched and well-explained analysis. Your reasonable, balanced voice will be greatly missed over the winter months and I know I speak for many others when I wish you loads of luck with your move to Portugal🤞👍 May the weather there be perfect (whichever flavour of 'perfect' you seek!).

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1 hour ago, Tamara said:

MJO related modelling, as above, is starting to pick up on this. Therefore, based on the well establishing basin-wide La Nina development, it is intuitive to expect the added westerly inertia within the atmospheric circulation to be very rapidly scrubbed out once more, and the cue for angular momentum tendency to collapse once more. As a result ,there is anticipation of the upstream pattern showing signs of re-amplifying. The GWO manifests such an upstream deceleration of momentum by a fast orbit back to the La Nina transitional Phase 8 and likely resume a re-coupled atmospheric/ocean phase state  Phase 1/2/3

What does this mean in simple NWP related synoptic weather terms?

Numerical models quite likely to start advertising this decelerative upstream process more comprehensively through the first part of November. This manifesting as discontinuous retrogression of the downstream European ridge and attempts for the upper trough to edge eastwards towards Scandinavia, and return of that Atlantic ridging. However, the fulcrum of late autumn w/QBO influenced vortex development will determine how much amplification is possible within the Atlantic sector and it is quite likely that polar maritime incursions will alternate with warm sector low pressure and create a quite typical late autumn scenario.

 

Thanks Tamara. The basin-wide La Nina means a zonal winter. You are in Portugal? That means some good news (if you like dry weather) for you. Enjoy.

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It’s a pity that the NOAA anomaly charts aren’t supporting this sort outlook at the moment (personally for me anyway), as the 00Z GEM shows a big rise in pressure and higher heights over the UK towards the end of its run. Knocks the Atlantic train of its tracks.

9EB77E30-319B-407F-B433-08516B28D5B4.png

424CBF6E-18F4-4064-974E-3B551D01ACB6.png

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Not much to say about this mornings model outlook with the Euro zonal out to day 9. While the Euro ensembles support a pressure build thereafter it is this range still well out in FI.

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Well the 12z GFS churns this chart out in FI, with noticeable height rises over Scandi and Russia...

gfs-0-378.thumb.png.4ec7da128a0478bdba82b7cd67b3bf6d.png   gfs-1-378.thumb.png.380d27348fa7dfc7b1ed3fda615a5573.png

Edited by Zak M
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168E6A72-F44C-4861-9299-AD1FF1E64144.thumb.png.b9732736d1a6116e29092c9f24e17941.png

The ecm insistence on building high pressure turned out to be wrong - and the problem is the failure to resolve this wave below the Icelandic low, which is now going to run straight across the UK and prevent the high from building.

Unfortunately - the way these systems line up, with saturated tropical Atlantic moisture laden air just dumping day after day of rain in the same western areas means we could see big problems by day 10. Those dark patches over the hills of Wales and NW England indicate around 200mm (8 inches) of rain, which nearly all falls in the next 8 days. You could expect some pretty severe flooding if this is accurate, after what has been a very wet month already. What a huge contrast to the east, where some places only see half an inch. 

93D411B9-BABB-4EDE-9181-67D8BB7A7E91.thumb.jpeg.475a74219d18bcb82e037dc435c626e6.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

168E6A72-F44C-4861-9299-AD1FF1E64144.thumb.png.b9732736d1a6116e29092c9f24e17941.png

The ecm insistence on building high pressure turned out to be wrong - and the problem is the failure to resolve this wave below the Icelandic low, which is now going to run straight across the UK and prevent the high from building.

Unfortunately - the way these systems line up, with saturated tropical Atlantic moisture laden air just dumping day after day of rain in the same western areas means we could see big problems by day 10. Those dark patches over the hills of Wales and NW England indicate around 200mm (8 inches) of rain, which nearly all falls in the next 8 days. You could expect some pretty severe flooding if this is accurate, after what has been a very wet month already. What a huge contrast to the east, where some places only see half an inch. 

93D411B9-BABB-4EDE-9181-67D8BB7A7E91.thumb.jpeg.475a74219d18bcb82e037dc435c626e6.jpeg

Not liking the black over cumbria 

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4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

168E6A72-F44C-4861-9299-AD1FF1E64144.thumb.png.b9732736d1a6116e29092c9f24e17941.png

The ecm insistence on building high pressure turned out to be wrong - and the problem is the failure to resolve this wave below the Icelandic low, which is now going to run straight across the UK and prevent the high from building.

Unfortunately - the way these systems line up, with saturated tropical Atlantic moisture laden air just dumping day after day of rain in the same western areas means we could see big problems by day 10. Those dark patches over the hills of Wales and NW England indicate around 200mm (8 inches) of rain, which nearly all falls in the next 8 days. You could expect some pretty severe flooding if this is accurate, after what has been a very wet month already. What a huge contrast to the east, where some places only see half an inch. 

93D411B9-BABB-4EDE-9181-67D8BB7A7E91.thumb.jpeg.475a74219d18bcb82e037dc435c626e6.jpeg

Yes its these synoptics that brought the devastating floods of November 2009 and December 2015, not saying this will happen, but the ground is fast becoming saturated here, on Saturday not that much rain resulted in rivers in spate, overflowing and raging torrents of rain off the fell sides. Local topography causes flash flooding here, doesn't take much rain to cause it when ground is saturated.

Back to the models, for the next week very unsettled with atlantic in full attack, little in the way of bright dry weather. Temps average to begin becoming milder, but not feeling especially so under the wind and rain.

Longer term, models do seem to be backing away from any concerted rise in pressure, at least to begin with,... still enough signals to suggest they will eventually at some point as we move through first few days of November.

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12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Interesting profile from Russia across to the pole...could be fruitful down the line 🤔 

gfsnh-0-342_ilq2.png

🐿️

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29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Interesting profile from Russia across to the pole...could be fruitful down the line 🤔 

gfsnh-0-342_ilq2.png

I was just about to post a comment about that myself and it all ends up in a big standoff.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.7ce337885f7a5c845935b27c9cf0241b.png

the first signs maybe?

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