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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    21 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    Thats what I was refering to.Window for -NAO between 5-20.11 and then back to +NAO at the end of the month. But even that period of potenialy -NAO is lacking low height anomalies to pull down anything reasonably cold which is reflected well with mean 850phPa temperatures never dropping below 0C and that is for a location at 650m.asl in central Europe.That may of course change but I have seen these -NAO EC46d at week 2 and beyond vanish more often then not or transforming to a west based -NAO because heigher heights in Sceuro/western Russia are quasi permanent past 5 winters.What you get is slowly filling trough stuck around UK with no cold to tap feom. I will be happy to be proven wrong of course but no way proper east based -NAO chart will excite me before hour 48h of forecast period. What will come will come,though if we get the snow somehow it will be hard to enjoy it because of basically all round lockdown😀

    It's quite easy to check this. Just one picture.

    Knipsel.PNG

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I think we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves here, the last bout of -AO and -NAO more former proved to be more resilient. I’d certainly bank EC46 quite a consistent signal end of week 1 of November a change in regime.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Aye, another EC too, with potential Indian Summer, could it break 20 degrees? maybe between Oct 30th and 2 Nov

    ECM1-168.GIF?23-0ECM1-192.GIF?23-0

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 12z mean longer term into early November, I think most would agree there are a few flies in the ointment in terms of a potential settling down process..BUT I like P20, although not built to last too long..this particular chart would suit me sir!...for what it’s worth, I do believe we will see heights encroaching from the south early next month but it’s the northward extent of the fine weather which is more uncertain (rule of thumb being better the further s / se you are) but the earlier 12z op looked pretty good across most of the u k..for a time at least.🙂

    BD7F27F0-BC21-4472-BD5F-29004F2EFCC4.thumb.png.1487a737e91f9fec1e8ae291f0a11e67.png600EE505-8E66-4D2D-9CAE-F7875488D9F4.thumb.png.7bd7c04caf84d0f3d34a9be927650def.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Week one looks like a pretty standard mixed westerly regime with rain and strong winds at times.

    Week 2...

    image.thumb.gif.81bf395c3eda805644f901b100ce66b9.gif
     

    UKMO at least hinting that high pressure to the south may gain more of a presence along with the GEM this morning.

    Three potential outcomes depending on how mobile the pattern remains.

    1) Low pressure remains more influential, mild and cloud with long fetch south westerlies.

    2) High pressure gains more of a foothold, the potential for a very mild or even warm southerly with more in the way of sunshine.

    3) High pressure builds closer to the U.K, temperatures very dependent on where the high sets up and the direction and strength of the wind (risk of fog and frost developing).

    The long range forecasts probably suggesting that options 2 and 3 are more likely and perhaps transitioning from one to the other. At the moment it is only really the GFS promoting the Atlantic express train, true to form I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Looks like we’re going to settle at a midway point as usual - not as amplified as the ecm a few days back, but not as flat as the gfs was showing either. Looks pretty mild though.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    The NOAA charts never really allowed for the ECM's more progressive pressure build, so it comes as no suprise those "summery looking " charts have gone.

    Theres too much mobility, although as the mean flow backs south of west it should be on the mild side and unsettled, transient ridges may bring a very mild few hours but nothing like what the ECM had previously suggested.

     

    no heat.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    17 hours ago, snowking said:

    Thanks for clarifying Nick, appreciate the ECM website data only runs out to week 4 in the main, but seemed too be too much of a sudden switch from what was being shown at week 4 to then be a raging +NAO - sounds like back to standard autumnal fare (which is what is probably to be expected at week 5 with a move back towards climatology)

     

    17 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Now that is a long way off Blue🔭👀😛

    Don’t get me wrong - I wouldn’t be surprised to see it change again for the back end ......the AO/NAO charts weren’t quite a complete write off with a small decently negative grouping. 

    just commenting on what the run showed ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I gotta say, this looks absolutely stunning from the GEFS 0z mean for the time of year (early nov for gawd sake)..whether it verifies or not!!!!!😜

    EB0D27AD-0C06-4D9F-B6B3-0549D23A1E53.thumb.png.6190d24494eb7802c1216c296d234dcc.png62CEE5E5-151E-4452-9845-91834801FB65.thumb.png.d03acf4cc06701ce4ad250c5076fc727.png1AC85F55-10D3-43EB-87C9-5173123C5902.thumb.png.e2ccfb0e824be44f89526cdfa6bf0ac4.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Toasty, toasty; very, very toasty! 🏝️

    image.png.ecf1cd71419b8075243686d69a86e934.pngimage.png.16f5ebe9c20d85aed52c5148e660b2b2.png    

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    Toasty, toasty; very, very toasty! 🏝️

    image.png.ecf1cd71419b8075243686d69a86e934.pngimage.png.16f5ebe9c20d85aed52c5148e660b2b2.png    

    thats a bran flakes advert from 1984!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Yeah, stay safe guys..pfft..lol..anyway, the Gfs 6z op does eventually settle down..,I have a feeling in my water (approx 60 percent😉) that early nov will see a more settled spell?!😉

    D3D4ABB5-EFC7-4C1A-84EC-C76896A88F6E.thumb.png.5b1f5506f485e52e0afc3df606464d28.pngC0A98F7E-738E-4061-8D90-E2DB2957C01E.thumb.png.a13dc906e8e7adb526d5ecfb4e48cf63.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hmm maybe I’m too drunk...who really knows ?..but I’m seeing positive signs from the GEFS 6z.. omg.,1035 mb..bank,,bank..😉

    1CDA5583-AD29-4660-94F0-29F7BC3732EA.thumb.png.dc8e2c88e4b912f5e49885c3bd68928a.pngDD072E23-75BD-4078-B1B1-067893471B8E.thumb.png.5ccafed33caef8c981bf740161f46711.pngF6E8BA79-A4FF-4A23-B65D-BB6652591B78.thumb.png.bc0e8a65ee9b0d0689d65379fdd2d8b7.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Jeez Louise, all I can say is early nov looks more settled than the next week or so according to the GEFS 0z/ 6z mean..fingers crossed gang!,😉🧐..hiccup🤡😜

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Well there isn't much to discuss about the models this afternoon/evening as they look to be a standard affair with a NW>SE split with the best of the dryer sunniest weather in the SE and unsettled further NW as per the latest Met musings too

    typical autumn weather really but i hope this pattern becomes unstuck as we trickle into the winter months 

    stay safe all and try to enjoy the rest of your evening😉

    laters. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Fairly predictable early autumn fare as others have said but broad signals for a rise in pressure into November with the HP ridging through the British Isles so a period of settled conditions lasting 7-10 days looks likely in the early part of next month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Wow so quiet in here, anyone would think winter was over or something????...lol,anyway, there seems to have been a few spanner’s thrown in the works regarding a settled extended outlook but there is still some support for an anticyclonic early November according to the GEFS 12z mean / perturbations!😜

    244E8EF9-CAD3-4898-969E-C4FB9553B34D.thumb.png.b7b8ee69d72a45dcc29cc4e6090e6fbb.pngDD563BC2-C294-40FC-B6C4-550AAFA6531D.thumb.png.a44616407aba36a8f0e457380f0cd1ae.png2B369EF0-8658-4CE1-A4E4-31072311F1EC.thumb.png.caec6a6a2d472c3d6a234a2cb4b8c9da.png08680D2B-7FCC-449F-A6FF-D32C72E6AFE2.thumb.png.02a744c1748bedd1d3eb99c434a0bbd3.png0DB71200-45F4-4041-8F67-64DFB32AC6B0.thumb.png.9c5add44d7fc279f53f7f12eea689ec8.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Start of November by ECM, GEM and JMA:

    66521C74-843A-4182-96A2-D9967CA540F9.thumb.png.31c6d849a6452709a3987578f87f9f96.pngF80B3244-5BFF-43E5-B378-1278F3D1ED4E.thumb.png.0be8a5a9b53df7bea99551aecb672cbd.pngFC78EA93-C138-4EB0-9E8C-D7C8B4B1FB5F.thumb.gif.cdec72e9cebbfa1f218a5a1795ccbe60.gif

    ECM most favourable for the scandi Russian block.  But all models low heights on the other side of the NH and some semblance of higher heights over Russia. It’s just one to watch now, and how it impacts on the strat vortex, which at the moment is gathering momentum:

    243E3D3B-37BA-4226-B20F-CDE9B24A2820.thumb.png.719f00c4b6d4c49bacc3a7d5d094d374.png

    Hope the trop patterns evolve further to put more pressure on the vortex during the next month.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: I love a variety
  • Location: West Midlands
    7 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Wow so quiet in here, anyone would think winter was over or something????...lol,anyway, there seems to have been a few spanner’s thrown in the works regarding a settled extended outlook but there is still some support for an anticyclonic early November according to the GEFS 12z mean / perturbations!😜

    244E8EF9-CAD3-4898-969E-C4FB9553B34D.thumb.png.b7b8ee69d72a45dcc29cc4e6090e6fbb.pngDD563BC2-C294-40FC-B6C4-550AAFA6531D.thumb.png.a44616407aba36a8f0e457380f0cd1ae.png2B369EF0-8658-4CE1-A4E4-31072311F1EC.thumb.png.caec6a6a2d472c3d6a234a2cb4b8c9da.png08680D2B-7FCC-449F-A6FF-D32C72E6AFE2.thumb.png.02a744c1748bedd1d3eb99c434a0bbd3.png0DB71200-45F4-4041-8F67-64DFB32AC6B0.thumb.png.9c5add44d7fc279f53f7f12eea689ec8.png

    Roll on the cold and crisp sunny days, which hopefully aren't too far away.
     

    Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

    Below are the 144hr for Gem, gfs, ecm, icon, ukmo. Cant see how we can get from these to a settled spell for beginning Nov. Atlantic too active and no blocking that could help.

     

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    ICOOPEU00_144_1.png

    GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

    GEMOPEU00_144_1.png

    ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

    Here"s the 192hr charts (apart ftom Icon which is 180hr). There is effort to build in hp in some, but form horse would be less settled than more settled IMO. (at least in Ireland where I'm based).

    GEMOPEU00_192_1-1.png

    ECMOPEU00_192_1-1.png

    ICOOPEU00_180_1-1.png

    GFSOPEU00_192_1-1.png

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