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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
50 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a big change on this morning's ECM op. Another warm end to October? 

Screenshot_20201018-103221.png

Hopefully a warm end to what has been a cool, dull and boring month in my view.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Wow! Absolutely stunning 00z ECM, with a few mild/warm days coming up this week before a brief return to cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions, and then a HP cell builds to our east over parts of Benelux and N Europe and stays there for the rest of the run. It even has the 12c isotherm in the south and east, so could 20c be reached if this was to come off? 

As a result of that blocking over W and N Europe, parts of SE Europe could go into the freezer for the first time this Autumn, that's if this run comes off at least. ❄️

1362640653_ECM1-240(2).thumb.gif.a1fba6f5cfe40fbc86db0f5e69b71cc9.gif   1149930522_ECM0-240(1).thumb.gif.aefc31bc623a1f8345b6c3ab0d21998c.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

And the 06z GFS isn’t having any of what the ECM is throwing out at the same timeframe, the air is cold enough to have snowfall over large parts of Scotland 

gfs-0-240_nvm1.png

gfs-3-252_ciy0.png

gfs-2-288_bmz9.pnggfs-16-288_ols6.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Every time at the end of a dissapointing cold season I say to myself no more looking at the stupid meteociel charts come autumn and no more taking any cold hyping serious until its 48hr within range.Time and time again I fail on this promise and seek any positive news from any cold ramping I can find as charts in autumn give some hope re.blocking.As soon as November nears Europe loads itself with familiar pattern of past late autumns or winters. This change from T0h to T228h is quite frankly despicable and no past Nina analogs had this diabolical setup come November its almost like throw all teleconnections out of the window and just go with recent raging +NAO climo

gensnh-31-1-6.png

gensnh-31-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Earthshine said:

Quite a range in surface pressure - over a 60 hPa difference!

18_10_2020.png

Better we take the op as gospel then?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Every time at the end of a dissapointing cold season I say to myself no more looking at the stupid meteociel charts come autumn and no more taking any cold hyping serious until its 48hr within range.Time and time again I fail on this promise and seek any positive news from any cold ramping I can find as charts in autumn give some hope re.blocking.As soon as November nears Europe loads itself with familiar pattern of past late autumns or winters. This change from T0h to T228h is quite frankly despicable and no past Nina analogs had this diabolical setup come November its almost like throw all teleconnections out of the window and just go with recent raging +NAO climo

gensnh-31-1-6.png

 

Hi there,I share your frustration. 8 days with complete snow cover here in the vlllage, which is a fairly unusual occurance for October. All the models now show a speedy warm up across much of Euroland with big thickness values right over the Alps by Thursday. So our snow will disappear quickly. This morning shows GFS and ECM disagree with the prognosis out to day 10 but the general trend towards the months end is for milder conditions to dominate across Southern Britain and the heart of Euroland with the exception of parts of Scandinavia ( snow has fallen this morning in Stockholm ).  Our team of experts over here are not convinced of a full on run zonal flow into The British as the week ends. Whilst much of Europe warms up , the prospects of a cold block to the NE has not gone completely out of the equation nor has the behaviour of the forecast West Atlantic storms. Think there could be some sudden swings in the models in the next couple of days.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm, when the models flip and flop as they are doing this weekend and we see large differences between GFS and ECM longer range I say best not get hung up on them as it clearly indicates lots of scatter and uncertainty. Best to look at developments in the shorter term, how low pressure behaves etc and expect sudden short term developments making a mockery of previous longer range outputs. 

Mid-week looks uncertain even at this stage, position of low pressure and frontal activity tricky to pinpoint.

In the reliable there is a change afoot, atlantic has some oomph about it, wet and windy for many and milder than of later, all very standard as we enter latter part of October which on average is often a very disturbed time of year stormy and wet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Certainly interesting how long run model confidence has decreased since this trough interaction has occured. Still remaining below average even now that is resolved.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Certainly interesting how long run model confidence has decreased since this trough interaction has occured. Still remaining below average even now that is resolved.

No evidence for that.  Models seem to be as good or rubbish as ever:

E0EE8962-9306-4BB2-A828-267E0F00CDAD.thumb.png.78a39e12d2e71039568f6bf0e0ed3e95.png

Performance beyond the end of this chart is purely speculation at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well ec at day ten should come with a health warning be it fi of course. Pretty wild imo

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Judging by the last couple of frames of the 12z ECM, it looks like the Azores High is trying to nudge up into the NW Atlantic and towards Greenland.

If that actually happens, then we could establish a cold northerly. FI at this stage though.

ecmslp240.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No evidence for that.  Models seem to be as good or rubbish as ever:

E0EE8962-9306-4BB2-A828-267E0F00CDAD.thumb.png.78a39e12d2e71039568f6bf0e0ed3e95.png

Performance beyond the end of this chart is purely speculation at the moment.

Apologies, I was speaking of observation further out than statistically at day 5. We had consensus to day 9 for quite a while bar the odd run.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: Sub 961 depression anywhere nearby
  • Location: Reading

wow that's a central pressure of 912mb if this ever happens but at 210hrs its well into FI

GFS 210.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Morning,

Looking like a much more typical period of UK autumn weather is upon us, as the blocked -NAO pattern crumbles away. PV strengthens (as shown from today to day 10 below), and we see the all too familiar low polar/Greenland heights and +NAO/+AO pattern digging in:

image.thumb.png.5142a4ca64e193178b4ddcdbaf2125f6.pngimage.thumb.png.cd3053cdcb125f20f78fad71bc9a7628.png
image.thumb.png.a738b78dbe8e27bb536731cd83bb2d2b.pngimage.thumb.png.162178869e74a408535e664f1e67161d.png

The upcoming 7-10 days is likely to be quite mild at times with winds from a W/SW quadrant. Wettest in western areas, with temperatures on the mild side for many. Perhaps peaking at 18c tomorrow in parts of the SE.
 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

True enough mb with the anomaly charts suggesting this.

Monday 19th October

Taking a look at how the charts have changed, essentially we now have an Atlantic driven pattern on the 6-10 charts with varying degrees of ridging to our east, intensity, shape and positions.

Ec-gfs with ec showing the more mobility in these two, gfs has more of a block with ec showing little signal over Greenland at all.

Noaa has an Atlantic driven pattern and tends to be rather more like gfs with the ridge out of northern Europe/Russia back west towards Greenland; its 8-14 also keeps this idea going.

So weather wise some fairly changeable/unsettled weather in store, temperature varying around normal as weather systems bring their warm and cold fronts across the country, gales likely at times for exposed western and northern areas. Relatively short settled spells the further s and east one lives.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

True enough mb with the anomaly charts suggesting this.

Monday 19th October

Taking a look at how the charts have changed, essentially we now have an Atlantic driven pattern on the 6-10 charts with varying degrees of ridging to our east, intensity, shape and positions.

Ec-gfs with ec showing the more mobility in these two, gfs has more of a block with ec showing little signal over Greenland at all.

Noaa has an Atlantic driven pattern and tends to be rather more like gfs with the ridge out of northern Europe/Russia back west towards Greenland; its 8-14 also keeps this idea going.

So weather wise some fairly changeable/unsettled weather in store, temperature varying around normal as weather systems bring their warm and cold fronts across the country, gales likely at times for exposed western and northern areas. Relatively short settled spells the further s and east one lives.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

To me, the 8-14 day chart looks positively stormy. This chart is very similar to the ones we had in January and February and they produced "named" storms... named storms have to be a pretty strong possibility, or at least some pretty active shortwave lows.

 

814day.03.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

To me, the 8-14 day chart looks positively stormy. This chart is very similar to the ones we had in January and February and they produced "named" storms... named storms have to be a pretty strong possibility, or at least some pretty active shortwave lows.

 

814day.03.jpg

image.thumb.png.fd1ded19bbffb848cd8365eaa19160a0.png

We've also got a tropical system that looks like it's going to re-curve back towards the UK in just over a weeks time - could develop a very nasty low if it interacts with the jet.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

You will struggle to find as perfectly shaped vortex around Greenland if you go through analogs in archived meteociel charts for the same date. We are picking up where we left in February in Europe.just ridiculous

gfsnh-0-204.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.25c1bff83acde59cb200c0f918c82b0c.png

USA - Nah, it's fine, we didn't want any rain anyway....

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 hours ago, jules216 said:

You will struggle to find as perfectly shaped vortex around Greenland if you go through analogs in archived meteociel charts for the same date. We are picking up where we left in February in Europe.just ridiculous

gfsnh-0-204.png

perhaps you should comfort yourself with this thought?

Like it in October and in February!

Then it would seem by the law of averages not to persist all the way in between!

Just a thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

perhaps you should comfort yourself with this thought?

Like it in October and in February!

Then it would seem by the law of averages not to persist all the way in between!

Just a thought.

Positives are that anomalies are not that far away from Ural blocking November pattern that supposedly weakens the vortex early as discussed on twitter today

EksYyikWMAQpQCU.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm so glad I can't be arissed with analogues... if the weather doesn't get you down, the analogues most certainly will! 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Not a surprise to the see the Azores High beginning to show its face again on the latest gfs run as we head closer towards winter, and what happened to all the blocking over Greenland,

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