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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Spoke to soon its joined gfs at 168 hours!!!colder!!!!

Certainly is pretty cold mate , for October anyway. 🥶

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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Credit must be given to GFS.. the ECM has followed lead with colder air from north moving south on Wednesday. The warm southerlies have all but evaporated. ECM 12z like GFS not looking as unsettled next week either, but quite chilly I’d happily take that. 

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has a nice atlantic block with undercutting at 240, Day 10 ~25th October being the date where the clocks go back & the size of the upper air cold pool over the NH is such that cold can arrive from the east as well as the North... Still just outside the window really but cold inching closer...

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Days 9&10 are very chilly or even cold at the surface. Below freezing at night in some places and perhaps mid-high single digits during the day I'd imagine.

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Have to say the ECM evolution from T+216 to T+240 stretches credibility for me a wee bit.

12Z GFS OP and Control restore a much more traditional autumn pattern in far FI - the first cold plunge down the east coast of North America fires up a very deep LP and the jet and off we jolly well go...

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I wondered why it was so quiet on here, of course, England are losing at football!😁..anyway, tonight’s ECM 12z ens mean indicates an increasingly unsettled (cyclonic)  spell next week with temperatures close to average..and further ahead looks zonal (Atlantic driven) with temperatures recovering, especially further south.😜

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I wondered why it was so quiet on here, of course, England are losing at football!😁..anyway, tonight’s ECM 12z ens mean indicates an increasingly unsettled (cyclonic)  spell next week with temperatures close to average..and further ahead looks zonal (Atlantic driven) with temperatures recovering, especially further south.😜

Not sure I totally agree with your interpretation pressure is low, however, there’s little W-E momentum in Atlantic definitely wetter in NW and more showery. It wouldn’t surprise us in SE would get off quite lightly with that. 

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Gfs oz takes quite a swing in direction early on this morning? Pressure pretty low early on and high to the south east stronger. Strange and complex set up atm altho rather interesting 👍👍👍

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11 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Credit must be given to GFS.. the ECM has followed lead with colder air from north moving south on Wednesday. The warm southerlies have all but evaporated. ECM 12z like GFS not looking as unsettled next week either, but quite chilly I’d happily take that. 

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Look at this chart for the end of October! very cold and stormy 

 

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2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Look at this chart for the end of October! very cold and stormy 

 

image.thumb.png.37efc6574d9063d707389423234d91ee.png

image.thumb.png.b79dccd110c8f88c2b1ac0eed673b0fc.pngimage.thumb.png.eb8d065ea94551a6af35f581bdb61ed0.pngimage.thumb.png.b0c6fbd89a05b3880c19ad0670869ee1.pngimage.thumb.png.419e2fa00280b7db897f6fdf611265a6.png Drier and colder than normal across the UK over the next 4 days.  High pressure to NW of UK.  Turning unsettled over the period October 19th to 26th 2020. Source:ECMWF 12 October update. 

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1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.b79dccd110c8f88c2b1ac0eed673b0fc.pngimage.thumb.png.eb8d065ea94551a6af35f581bdb61ed0.pngimage.thumb.png.b0c6fbd89a05b3880c19ad0670869ee1.pngimage.thumb.png.419e2fa00280b7db897f6fdf611265a6.png Drier and colder than normal across the UK over the next 4 days.  High pressure to NW of UK.  Turning unsettled over the period October 19th to 26th 2020. Source:ECMWF 12 October update. 

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Backward step this morning if colder weather is what you like!!didnt expect it to be this drastic!!milder air and not as blocked!!gfs once again climbs down and joins ukmo and ecm!!real joke this model is!!

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47 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hi guys

I just wanted to take the time out of my day to write this post, to say that I get seriously bored and sometimes depressed in winter, mainly because of the cold and the extremely short daylight length. To cure my boredom during winter, I will post in this thread as much as I can for you guys, and will try my best to update you all on what the models are showing, come winter. 

I also apologise if I rant in some of my posts in winter, as I said it's my least favourite season and I sometimes get a bit upset when summer's gone and it leads to an almost 'snowless' winter.

To any coldies reading this, I hope this winter is for you, and I hope that it will be the winter with lots of snow on offer for you all, as the last couple of years haven't been too good for snow.

Thanks guys, and let the hunt for cold begin. ❄️

ZM

Winter can be very tedious Zak - short daylight hours, lots of darkness, and more often than not 80% of days are just cloudy, often windy and mild with rain. Temps around 6-12c. Repeat for any month between October and February.

As many on here know, i'm not the biggest winter fan either (I like the cold stuff, but as it's so rare i'm just left disappointed with rubbish weather), but just try to take things day by day and break it down into segments. I look at it now as half of autumn has already gone in the blink of an eye, and in 10 weeks we will pass the shortest day. It will fly by, and before you know it will be the other side once again. I just hope it's more interesting than the constant deluges of winter 2019/2020.
 

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3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Backward step this morning if colder weather is what you like!!didnt expect it to be this drastic!!milder air and not as blocked!!gfs once again climbs down and joins ukmo and ecm!!real joke this model is!!

Too early anyway mate. I’m not fussed about any cold until we get to the end of November. Enjoying the unusual model output though at the moment!

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8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Too early anyway mate. I’m not fussed about any cold until we get to the end of November. Enjoying the unusual model output though at the moment!

The 6z is quite an odd run - low pressure just gets stuck out to the west and rotates around, continually drawing up mild-ish air. As you say, a northerly or an easterly won't have any real bite to it at the moment anyway. It'd just be cool rather than especially cold. Give us another 4-6 weeks and we can talk!

All looking very average for the time of year. I think October will come in a little below the CET now. 

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4 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

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I'm sure new folk would be pleased if you put some comments with charts you post NA, please?

More experienced folk can do their own interpretation

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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrid 00z runs if you like me enjoy foggy frosty Autumn weather.

Euro High preventing the jet digging into the mainland.

 

I wouldn’t get too concerned at the minute I think the models will be chopping and changing quite frequently over the next few weeks with a few things going on, possible hurricane development I would say toward Florida could be most likely but as always models will struggle to pinpoint until / if it has developed also the ECM and GEM latest runs show the high pressure going well into the arctic from the Pacific side I’m not sure whether that is the most likely outcome but anyhow with phase 5 of the MJO does look like some form of blocking will be the likely scenario, with 2 possibilities of tapping into an easterly on these charts 

if the low pressure stays centred enough to our south or indeed if we do end up with the high over Scandinavia.

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrid 00z runs if you like me enjoy foggy frosty Autumn weather.

Euro High preventing the jet digging into the mainland.

 

But that has been the trend though, after this settled cool spell, the weather will turn more turbulent with a strong southerly wind and above average temperatures? Always a chance if you get enough ridging in the Atlantic as the low pulls away you might get a colder shot but that seems unlikely. 

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