Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z there’s a chance, albeit what seems a very small chance of some pleasant late October weather during the last third...in the meantime, this week will gradually improve from the NW with most of the u k becoming much drier and brighter for thurs / fri & into the weekend with some chilly nights and a risk of mist / fog. ? 

[tinybill]

just looking  at that  and what  coming in fantasy world  its could  get a tad wet

[Zak M]

Yes, yes, and yes!! 

This is from the 12z ECM @192. It even has the 10c isotherm present in the south too.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Zak M said:

Yes, yes, and yes!! 

This is from the 12z ECM @192. It even has the 10c isotherm present in the south too.

not bad Zak, certainly flirting with an Indian summer, low needs to be further west than that for areas away from S/SE to be decent

[stodge]

 

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Yes, yes, and yes!! 

This is from the 12z ECM @192. It even has the 10c isotherm present in the south too.

And the price for that infusion of sub-tropical air:

Edited October 12, 2020 by stodge

[mb018538]

Got to love the UK weather. From a quiet, blocked and dead Atlantic set up to a 970mb deep low and storm force winds 4 days later. Dunno how we do it, I really don’t.

[Frosty.]

The ECM has been hinting at a long draw southerly in recent days and here it is again on the 12z..a bit of westward adjustment and it would mean an unseasonably warm few days...looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean..on the face of it there’s no sign of anything too wintry!

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

The ECM has been hinting at a long draw southerly in recent days and here it is again on the 12z..a bit of westward adjustment and it would mean an unseasonably warm few days...looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean..on the face of it there’s no sign of anything too wintry!

 

Well this is problematic...

What are we chasing in FI? 

Will it be Indian summer or early cold? 

What are the odds of something far more average? 

To be honest I'd be happy with either but some last warmth probably edges it. 

[mb018538]

Model data tonight still isn’t massively warm anyway - nothing higher than 17c showing early next week in any output. Average highs in London for October are 15.5c anyway, so I’m not going to get too excited about 16/17c!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Model data tonight still isn’t massively warm anyway - nothing higher than 17c showing early next week in any output. Average highs in London for October are 15.5c anyway, so I’m not going to get too excited about 16/17c!

Aye, but if the setup was further West, it would make 20 degrees, FI so not certain yet where low will be

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Model data tonight still isn’t massively warm anyway - nothing higher than 17c showing early next week in any output. Average highs in London for October are 15.5c anyway, so I’m not going to get too excited about 16/17c!

Not quite ECM with large area of >20C in Eastern England but at the same times there’s 100mph gusts in western U.K. so choose carefully Indian summer lovers  

[damianslaw]

Notable changes in the medium term outlook from the models today; a shift to a much more unsettled pattern than has been shown in recent days, thanks to a developing shortwave feature to our SW, unusually so, becoming a rapidly deepening area of low pressure locked in place due to heights to our north and north west. End result a possible period of very wet windy and mild conditions. Perhaps the models are overreacting and instead we end up with heights to the north exerting greater influence, note they are set to build and expand Thursday, with forcing from arctic heights - this is the key player at the moment and could easily have enough force to resist such developments having all the say.

It continues to be an interesting spell of weather synoptic wise, opposite to the usual west-east zonal movement. A trough dropping through the UK on current trajectory becoming a low pressure is highly unusual any time of the year, but particularly so in mid October.

 

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not quite ECM with large area of >20C in Eastern England but at the same times there’s 100mph gusts in western U.K. so choose carefully Indian summer lovers  

My bad - for some reason I didn’t even look at Wednesday! 20-21c ticks the box!

[Dancerwithwings]

Like you said mb018538, “dunno how we do it”  we haven’t yet!!! methinks the Jet stream will be a lot further south by then, with any LP trying to show them self’s will be down there with it and the UK being on the cold side of the Jet.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Like you said mb018538, “dunno how we do it”  we haven’t yet!!! methinks the Jet stream will be a lot further south by then, with any LP trying to show them self’s will be down there with it and the UK being on the cold side of the Jet.

blaady hope not, don't fancy 8 degrees and rain, would much rather the chance at 20 degrees and dry

Edited October 12, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Frosty.]

On the plus side, it’s nice to see Northern Europe getting some early cold weather, it’s not all about the u k!!!...tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean (as per the op) shows a warm up from the south, for the south..at least for a time!...I can’t see any sign of an early wintry snap for the u k...not what the majority want to read but I’m just giving my honest opinion!

 

[Liam J]

This evenings ECM showing some very severe weather mid next week, a long way off atm but there is a shift towards a more unsettled theme as mentioned above. 
 

If this is anywhere near the mark then there would be considerable disruption with high impacts from winds gusting 90-100mph. 
 

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just a quick one-

Just spotted this in GFS FI...negatively tilted Atlantic troughing. This is a VERY good sign to look out for as we approach November as it's a solid sign that the general pattern is predisposed to blocking at a higher latitude going forward...

The propensity for Atlantic systems to dive to our west or at worst in the vicinity of the meridian is a positive as we look forwards to winter proper ..... whilst we see plenty of obvious blocking in the nwp, we also see plenty of the more subtle type which steers the jet further south 

[Zak M]

Indian summer still on the cards for southern UK from the 00z ECM @168.

[mb018538]

Morning folks,

Not much change on this mornings output. Deep low to the SW still expected to form, and send much milder conditions our way into next week. Wednesday still looks like the 'peak' of the warmer weather - 00z also showing around 20c like last evening. Interestingly - a large number of areas stay quite dry well into Thursday as the heavy rain stays out west.

[Frosty.]

Upgrade alert..day 10 Ecm 0z op is warmer than last nights 12z...I kid you not!!!!

[Tim Bland]

Loving the idea of a last blast of warmth before the snow chase starts.  GEM is the pick of the bunch for me this morning. It would send us into November with an awesome northern hemisphere profile with extensive blocking.  Look at all that cold flooding to our east (ready for us to tap into) and relative warmth over the US which will dampen the jet stream!

[carinthian]

Morning. The key to any change for the start of next week will how the low forecast to develop along the Polar Front between Greenland and Iceland interacts with the uniformly modelled  Low pressure system to the SW of Britain. The alignment and progress of any Atlantic trough into the British Isles has yet really to be determined. The UK met Office seem to be heading with caution with forecast speed of advancement of fronts into Southern Britain. So a bit of caution as we look at the models past 144t this morning.

[sheikhy]

Hmmm interesting gfs 06z!!instead of the warm southerly winds between 144 and 192 hours we now got cold easterly winds!!this mornings ecm backed ever so slightly west at 168 hours as well compared to the 12z!!changes happened quite early on on the 06z at around 96 hours with that shortwave around iceland!are we about to see a big change in the forecast?12z very important!!i personally think the gfs will go back to showing what it was on the 00z!!

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning. The key to any change for the start of next week will how the low forecast to develop along the Polar Front between Greenland and Iceland interacts with the uniformly modelled  Low pressure system to the SW of Britain. The alignment and progress of any Atlantic trough into the British Isles has yet really to be determined. The UK met Office seem to be heading with caution with forecast speed of advancement of fronts into Southern Britain. So a bit of caution as we look at the models past 144t this morning.

gfs 06z back up your thoughts as well as the ukmos!!