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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Models continue to show a warming trend as we enter middle of the month, thanks to high pressure ridging in from the SW and the atlantic trough elongating on a N-S axis, resulting in a warm southerly flow. What happens next fairly uncertain, tropical storm activity reason why and how it interacts with the jetstream.  Will we maintain a southerly flow, or see heights transfer to the NE.. where will the trough end up?

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21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS parallel joining in the fun for next week,  looks exceptional for mid September here T168 on the 12z:

27261176-6478-4AD6-AB37-BF11BCE2B98C.thumb.png.9b2cda55791aa714d4504eecfeefe5da.png

+18C uppers into south there!  

A rarity indeed, found these few instances of the same:

archives-2016-9-14-0-1.png archives-2006-9-21-12-1.png

A whole week later in 2006 - just shows what can be achieved with a little oomph from the Atlantic so late in the year. 

archives-2000-9-11-12-1.png

Came so close in 2000 too. We all know what followed...

Some exceptional charts for September next week for sure. 

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image.thumb.png.c4b2be32f7e6806285d677fb9ae4717b.pngimage.thumb.png.54bb5e1ea49feb16af1eddf3ec1f6e21.png
image.thumb.png.adf0fd7939b024396edfe582ef673117.pngimage.thumb.png.99dd499bc9b8ba5b68eef522c1f8d542.png

Monday/Tuesday looking very warm or hot on the UKMO this morning - and increasingly unstable on Tuesday with low pressure moving in from the SW. A classic storm recipe.


A lot depends on what actually happens with this low. Take GEM for example:

image.thumb.png.530692bdc13eb196a020104563e9a49d.pngimage.thumb.png.3a24fe44e765ef8c66cfa4a9539c8a59.pngimage.thumb.png.42e0e6dde0748efba79adce7208e3f75.png

The low is further away at 144, and at 168/192 it actually ends up being pushed south as high pressure builds around instead. GFS and ICON are somewhere in the middle.

GFS ensembles highlighting this problem period with a lot of ensemble noise around day 7 onwards. Needs resolving. We also have the curveball of multiple tropical systems/ex hurricanes that will come from the Atlantic in the next fortnight:

image.thumb.png.c585800a0d7393490e955f6f5ea40bb3.pngimage.thumb.png.0f100a1e073989a2c868680b1726b1b5.pngimage.thumb.png.b55d6b4aaf055d6c594fc8eb29b1e511.png 

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Not a very good ecm compared to the heatwave charts last few days but still warm and dry!!hardly any rain forecasted for a lot of places till the end of the month nearly on the gfs ensembles!!hopefully october is dry too!!

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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Not a very good ecm compared to the heatwave charts last few days but still warm and dry!!hardly any rain forecasted for a lot of places till the end of the month nearly on the gfs ensembles!!hopefully october is dry too!!

Yes @sheikhy, ECM is quite different this morning! Only really Monday as a very warm day, the heat very quickly swept aside Tuesday leaving only the far eastern counties (Norfolk/Suffolk/Essex/Kent) very warm. High pressure makes a quick return at day 9 though:

image.thumb.png.571baca4fdc663716b1c3b5ef96cff74.png

A very dry run in the E/SE corner with 0-1mm of rain over the next 10 days.
 

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10 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Now that's a turn for the books,the NWP'S sniffed out this warm/hot spell a few days ago and now the cpc has come on board,

these for you @johnholmes@mushymanrob😍

610day_03.thumb.gif.e9d9d834d69d504319f381bbf1dadf46.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.8bd3104e2230373a03bec16d2eb1d2d5.gif

#Here comes the sun#

bring it on!!!😉

They suggest positive heights to our east but we still retain a moderate southwesterly upper flow. We would get some transient ridges, some warmth, but no lengthy high pressure over the uk. Its still mobile.

The GFS and ECM still cannot agree beyond next Tuesday..

Edited by mushymanrob
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Clusters this morning:

Very warm or hot Monday:

image.thumb.png.43a9fc3fd5b3790db6149d685f4de90b.png




Tuesday more debatable - some heat may hold on in the SE corner, but could get shunted away early. The Op and control are in the progressive group:

image.thumb.png.40971893d2e203c424b156138f3733d4.png




Then a question of what happens to the low down to our SW:

image.thumb.png.8438dcef95971eb11b10e7d75ca18cbe.png


Not much use posting clusters beyond here, as the evolution of the low will have a knock on effect in the days following. 

Edited by mb018538
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Looks like the UKMO is going for the cut-off low scenario and this should help keep the warmth for a little bit longer

2131870413_UW144-21(1).thumb.gif.179603d3ae69089df4fad5f0fe2f0740.gif

@144

Edited by Zak M
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42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks very GEM 00z

Talking about the GEM,here is the 12z and i have got to say this looks Fabby! Dabby! Dozey!!!:clapping::drinks:☀️🌡️🔥

anim_slf4.thumb.gif.686f3d1fbac4137154e0b68ec4c8d919.gifanim_dvr6.thumb.gif.cab58a6efd6b2fda1f9c70649601443e.gif

meanwhile ,the GFS has it's laces tangled and stumbled out of the blocks,come on gfs get your act together

893098255_runfail-nonstarter.thumb.gif.96e1a1e776821bb06b69df33a0efd7c3.gif

GFS trickling out now....very slowly.

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Edited by Allseasons-si
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53 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Has anyone seen the latest from CFSv2 monthly height anomalies from Oct-May:shok:

cfsnh-3-10-2020.thumb.png.4ca03c50a1b4250a887c3727a723550a.pngcfsnh-3-11-2020.thumb.png.5d6a5a5a1c15fe4f187856500207b3ed.pngcfsnh-3-12-2020.thumb.png.7b87525b64b0b9ed017aa5ddfa34c057.pngcfsnh-3-1-2021.thumb.png.5feb16666092f6635833e85cc92520e5.pngcfsnh-3-2-2021.thumb.png.61ced6b629e5bd09eee20e53fed72b79.pngcfsnh-3-3-2021.thumb.png.3c08734c933d628b4728977f97cc85d2.pngcfsnh-3-4-2021.thumb.png.92175e566e52d22dc9db270efd260367.pngcfsnh-3-5-2021.thumb.png.3a9c418004b52670f0c86d4963348e59.png

In layman's terms, how well do these verify or is it just for fun (pointing me towards tabular data or graphs at this point might make my head explode, one of those weeks here)?

Ta. 

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6 minutes ago, Griff said:

In layman's terms, how well do these verify or is it just for fun (pointing me towards tabular data or graphs at this point might make my head explode, one of those weeks here)?

Ta. 

They aren’t great. If anyone really thinks we’re going to see a strong high over or close to the UK for that amount of time then they need their head testing 😂

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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Has anyone seen the latest from CFSv2 monthly height anomalies from Oct-May:shok:

cfsnh-3-10-2020.thumb.png.4ca03c50a1b4250a887c3727a723550a.pngcfsnh-3-11-2020.thumb.png.5d6a5a5a1c15fe4f187856500207b3ed.pngcfsnh-3-12-2020.thumb.png.7b87525b64b0b9ed017aa5ddfa34c057.pngcfsnh-3-1-2021.thumb.png.5feb16666092f6635833e85cc92520e5.pngcfsnh-3-2-2021.thumb.png.61ced6b629e5bd09eee20e53fed72b79.pngcfsnh-3-3-2021.thumb.png.3c08734c933d628b4728977f97cc85d2.pngcfsnh-3-4-2021.thumb.png.92175e566e52d22dc9db270efd260367.pngcfsnh-3-5-2021.thumb.png.3a9c418004b52670f0c86d4963348e59.png

If that comes off,we'd all certainly be self isolating for months😅😂😄😁

A cold spring mind😁

Edited by joggs
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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

They aren’t great. If anyone really thinks we’re going to see a strong high over or close to the UK for that amount of time then they need their head testing 😂

I'm so full of cold and lemsip max (blackcurrant, I'm no fool) I'd believe anything... 😂 

Interesting though, seems to tally with certain social media based revelations I've got a whiff over the last week regarding possible correlation with potentially hyperactive hurricane season... 

And yes, I realise this is confirmation bias... 😂 

 

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is very progressive again tonight, much like the 00z op was. Heat swept away quicker through Tuesday, with only Norfolk and Suffolk staying hot.

No cut off low?

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gem-0-240.thumb.png.ab298deccb86af19a0014feda7bb3638.png   gem-2-240.thumb.png.53224d4bb5d27753d5ea38c35ec5d8d7.png

Just looking back through the 12z GEM and it looks like it's showing 3 tropical storms in the W Atlantic at once. Never seen that before.

Edited by Zak M
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