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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

    It’s just galling that we’re getting this output now and not in Dec/Jan/Feb 😱

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    I’m not sure where you are plucking 20c from....but that chart certainly isn’t even close! UK maxes are around 9-14c for Monday on tonight’s ecm. The only way you’d see 20c plus this time of year is a straight southerly draw.

    The trouble is it's a midnight chart i don't know what the max is

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    5 minutes ago, thundasnow said:

    The trouble is it's a midnight chart i don't know what the max is

    Also i'm a newbie since april and about last week for this forum

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    23 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    It’s just galling that we’re getting this output now and not in Dec/Jan/Feb 😱

    winter is coming early and so is spring

    ecmt850.120.png

    ecmt850.240.png

    Edited by thundasnow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    The ten day ec seems a long way from the corresponding gfs. The nhp are very encouraging and hopefully continue🤞🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Saturday charts for the 500 mb anomaly set

    Ec-gfs, and only ec out so far; and ec fairly similar in most major aspects to Friday

    Noaa last evening is also fairly similar to its last chart but with less emphasis on the rather sharp trough shown se of Greenland, it now shows a large more rounded trough  which also covers the uk and extends towards Iberia.

    So perhaps a tentative stab at uk weather 6-10 ahead=no strong winds, in fact with fairly cold upper air over the country, inland overnight fog and probably frost seem likely with any clear skies. In any clearer days then daytime heating into a cold upper air will likely trigger showers inland as well as local winds off the fairly warm seas. ‘Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness’ perhaps? The 8-14 looks pretty similar as well. And no this does not tie in with the 6-15 day Met O outlook.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The GFS end and corresponding ECM suites do offer some subtle differences. The ECM more amplified and as such tending to centre low pressure towards the west of Iberia in week two whilst the GFS suite tends to have this just south of the U.K. The ECM probably offering better conditions as in a little drier and milder. The take home message stills seems to be that some form of easterly flow will dominate from the middle of next week onwards with showers and rain at times. Temperatures very much on the cool side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    2 hours ago, Griff said:

    I'd just seen the GEM posted on twitter 😉

    I was thinking about taking it straight to the strat & pv thread (where things often seem a bit abstract and distant from the daily models), but very glad to see this commented on here. 

    I'm assuming this means a very disrupted early pv, hence the -NAO

    Should I be checking the historic winter archive? Was January 1987 of interest? 

    Cheers. 

    Jan 87 was a tiny bit chilly.....long draw easterly. Lasted about a week.

    image.thumb.png.49ec5b57084529b0e0682abf63133b78.png
     

    Back on topic this chart would also be pretty cold were it January. Polar profile different but not a million miles away as an air source for a blink and you’ll miss it moment. But all this is 6 weeks too early for low ground excitement..

    image.thumb.png.9bb41cfa6f86424cba97ad0dd25eba2c.png

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Interestingly by day 8 we have a notable achievement for the coming late Autumn/winter, namely the final removal of warm upper air from western Russia/northern Europe.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    GFS...Complete turn around 00z to 06z at D7 and chilly if you ask me

    gfs-0-192_uod0.pnggfs-0-198_mzt2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    GFS...Complete turn around 00z to 06z at D7 and chilly if you ask me

    gfs-0-192_uod0.pnggfs-0-198_mzt2.png

     

    Yes an all to familiar tail of moving to the UKMO

    not quite the stella heights of the GEM but a big swing ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Looking at the Gfs 6z operational so far, this is not your typical autumn pattern chaps, I tell you, there is nothing typical about this!😜:shok:🧐

    A5F1F9CB-B6F3-4291-BD5B-77DF1661A44C.thumb.png.a1faf427103e922d89058526e18fd20d.png

    You do realise we live in the uk right nothings normal ever

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

     

    Yes an all to familiar tail of moving to the UKMO

    not quite the stella heights of the GEM but a big swing ..

    Interesting model watching this week, GFS 06Z after next weekend is a little more than just chilly 🥶 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good God! Cold rain, more cold rain and even more cold rain... If only it were mid-December!?

    A5F1F9CB-B6F3-4291-BD5B-77DF1661A44C.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Hey guys I’ve just about reached my tipping point..do I want warm rain or do I want cold rain?..hmmmmmm..what a dilemma..I think I’m looking for cold rain now!...the sun is getting ever lower and the days are getting ever shorter..I quite like the idea of a cold November!:whistling:😜

    A1F62478-0BA4-4340-95D6-21B6D584BD0B.jpeg.5227368ae73800eaddc99c93c7fabaca.jpeg7E7A229A-9EA1-4FB7-A2D4-733AE1B573FA.thumb.png.da6c7757381292502b9627a59705f99c.png

     

    There might be some of that cold rain turning to snow if the control is to be believed🥶🤪🧐

    gensnh-0-1-288.thumb.png.b43121c5d18a844f5f8016bd5abf03e8.pnggensnh-0-0-288.thumb.png.f841f5d6ca20349797a3897edb52eb7e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I see the Winter countdown is beginning to gain momentum! Lovely jubiley.. I think Blue gave an update to the EC46 the other day and he's spot on. In the shorter term we have some better conditions for a time next week... Towards next weekend things go downhill with Low pressure taking control, spells of wet weather and pretty chilly at times also. There is perhaps a chance of some ridging at times towards months end which would bring quiter spells and frost and fog more likely. Further into November we see more unsettled conditions taking hold again, and once again it remains pretty chilly. I'm also noticing Heights in the Greenland area throughout much of this period... Now fast forward a few more weeks, and things could start to get interesting! The anomalies do point to a colder November and December, so let's not rule out a front loaded start to the season this year. 

    Whatever your doing this weekend, keep safe.. ☀️

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    I see the Winter countdown is beginning to gain momentum! Lovely jubiley.. I think Blue gave an update to the EC46 the other day and he's spot on. In the shorter term we have some better conditions for a time next week... Towards next weekend things go downhill with Low pressure taking control, spells of wet weather and pretty chilly at times also. There is perhaps a chance of some ridging at times towards months end which would bring quiter spells and frost and fog more likely. Further into November we see more unsettled conditions taking hold again, and once again it remains pretty chilly. I'm also noticing Heights in the Greenland area throughout much of this period... Now fast forward a few more weeks, and things could start to get interesting! The anomalies do point to a colder November and December, so let's not rule out a front loaded start to the season this year. 

    Whatever your doing this weekend, keep safe.. ☀️

    Aye Matt...Maybe even a hint of a 1985-esque November???

    Pleas God, make it so... I'll be good. I promise. I won't be rude to Mummy and Daddy and I'll brush my teeth... and wash behind my ears... Please God -- pretty please?🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Hey guys I’ve just about reached my tipping point..do I want warm rain or do I want cold rain?..hmmmmmm..what a dilemma..I think I’m looking for cold rain now!...the sun is getting ever lower and the days are getting ever shorter..I quite like the idea of a cold November!:whistling:😜

    A1F62478-0BA4-4340-95D6-21B6D584BD0B.jpeg.5227368ae73800eaddc99c93c7fabaca.jpeg7E7A229A-9EA1-4FB7-A2D4-733AE1B573FA.thumb.png.da6c7757381292502b9627a59705f99c.png

     

    Jon, prefer warm thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Jon, prefer warm thanks

    Me too. In summer.,but I’m sensing a disturbance in the force..the models seem to be pointing towards anti-zonal..at least for a time with the Scandi heights and all..maybe a colder late autumn / early winter could be ours?..perhaps a front loaded winter which would be better than a no loaded winter..ps..please post more Matt..missing your regular input!🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Afternoon all, a couple of 70 hour weeks at work have curtailed my posting recently but just found enough time to peep at the clusters for D10 - looks precariously close to a west based -NAO, which puts the UK on the borderline of a cold Nly/NEly (snow for northern hills possible), or a warm S/SWly and pushing close to 20C as some are saying

    http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/10/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020101000_240.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    or a warm S/SWly and pushing close to 20C as some are saying

    http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/10/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020101000_240.png

     

    Lordy Lordy..well there is certainly some warm potential in the GEFS 6z mid range (approx 10 days ahead)...but I am now actively looking for cold..honestly guv!:shok:😁🧐😜:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS more amplified through 156 especially towards the southern tip of greenland-

     

    However whats more eye watering is the location of the 500MB block to the N/ NE

    3436965B-18A7-4960-A5D3-EB89D2F01EBF.thumb.png.77d6516aa0335e32bf7893e241373d8e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    still looking for possible Indian summer, dosen't make it on this 12Z, but aligned a bit more to the west, could be near 20C, one to watch?

    h850t850eu.png

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