Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, carinthian said:

UKMO chart for Wednesday next week show similarities'  to the GFS and ECM runs out to 144h. Positioning of the high centre near to the British Isles and the  continental low will be crucial to the type of weather for the UK next week. Fine margins between quiet pleasant or cold and breezy conditions. The UKMO chart below would indicate a trough development in the continental flow that would make for some rather colder unsettled conditions across SE England for a day or so.  Longer term, models, seem to show a low formation to the SW of the British Isles that may evenually produce a pattern change but this is far from conclusive looking at the various mean 500mb forecast longer term charts.

C

UW144-21.gif

Morning all, just a follow up to the above post sent yesterday, looks like the general overall picture firming up on a couple of days next week of rather cold, showery and probably breezy conditions especially the SE of England  , Wash to Southampton. Longer term models this morning seem to be holding the blocking conditions with no great sign of zonal flow.

C

overview_20201009_00_120.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

To get the candy out of the way first, the GFS0z had a stonker of a northerly late in FI.

spacer.png

The Euro out to day 10 largely maintains the pattern of recent days in that blocking to our north and north east sees an easterly for the UK (cool and cloudy and possibly wet in the south) with greater undercutting leading to low pressure becoming trapped underneath. 

spacer.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!😜🤪

03A8A027-2BAC-4B0F-9C15-1A024194AE12.jpeg.1a55b777821dc4d7c00f8303e1ec4953.jpeg2FDDBC6B-9CCF-4505-A4C6-85B484BBDA52.thumb.png.fdb1363c945f26b7a859dd8713aa441d.pngBE956447-D883-4719-BEDC-F15DFB8E09BD.thumb.png.b22cc6bda77c4c61c93d02a79233de07.png

 

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

Friday 9 October

 

Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

Friday 9 October

 

Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
Well, thats what im reading from it...

Link to post
Share on other sites

To my untrained eye, the settled signal for next week, which at one time looked quite strong, has become more and more diluted to the point where it’s not really looking settled at all..and I’m using the GEFS / ECM means plus the operational output so far today!!!!!😁:shok:😜🧐

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!😜🤪

03A8A027-2BAC-4B0F-9C15-1A024194AE12.jpeg.1a55b777821dc4d7c00f8303e1ec4953.jpeg2FDDBC6B-9CCF-4505-A4C6-85B484BBDA52.thumb.png.fdb1363c945f26b7a859dd8713aa441d.pngBE956447-D883-4719-BEDC-F15DFB8E09BD.thumb.png.b22cc6bda77c4c61c93d02a79233de07.png

 

An Indian summer for the south after all?! 😜

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
Well, thats what im reading from it...

I think we best agree not to totally agree there m. If you look at the days previous to last evening then NOAA is rather different in one or two ways. They may be important but as it has only shown the current prediction once I prefer to wait like I suggested. You may turn out correct with your forecast but it is great to see someone using them in a positive way. Cheers mate.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, abbie123 said:

No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

2E1FB039-08E3-4588-91F8-4EAAF34F4CEE.png

A24787BF-9FA7-4E64-8EC8-B94B1176F6BA.png

20D1CADF-8817-4641-BF62-AB6B15A24E44.png

Last week of October looking mild and wet? Hope not!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.2831564a2cc2b4a1091b6666abf8b212.pngimage.thumb.png.8322641a08b6a5030da6ed6062bbaf5b.png

Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

ecm500.072.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

image.thumb.png.2831564a2cc2b4a1091b6666abf8b212.pngimage.thumb.png.8322641a08b6a5030da6ed6062bbaf5b.png

Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

ecm500.072.png

I’m not sure where you are plucking 20c from....but that chart certainly isn’t even close! UK maxes are around 9-14c for Monday on tonight’s ecm. The only way you’d see 20c plus this time of year is a straight southerly draw.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM 12z operational certainly isn’t all bad, away from the SE there’s a marked improvement during the second half of the working week thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure bringing largely fine conditions, pleasant in the sunshine but where skies are clear overnight, it would turn cold with slight frosts and given the time of year, some mist / fog could be an issue...but then it turns very unsettled for all.
2392FB04-4312-47E6-9801-39AEBFA3C3F6.thumb.png.edc75ba8ef6fee856b07bd728806728d.png99689289-B78E-46D5-9139-07E4EB063618.thumb.png.c6e934701ef4b831113da5f35d697b61.pngF2029A96-C055-4859-BF52-05CE10AFB391.thumb.png.07057b5a21dd5282a59702a9c60ee90e.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

C

850temp_20201009_00_240 (1).jpg

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

C

850temp_20201009_00_240 (1).jpg

Always good to see the advance of the arctic front and the depth of cold behind it.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good morning.

This is the GEM.

32884169-E49E-4F6B-AD21-56BA9C5A8807.thumb.jpeg.cdd3a4ca7ef467e2bfac72b792e0efe5.jpeg50C61200-B8AF-4010-871A-AC177A92DA98.thumb.jpeg.dfefdf413c3745a29a2380e678b76a15.jpeg

 

In terms of being extraordinary its on a par   ( but better ) with 2010 & Jan 12 1987, not necessarily for UK cold but for that record breaking intense high just west of Greenland - Note the anomaly.

I wrote about these 'super' intense high pressures 3-4 years ago.

You will never find a chart like this in the archives as its record breaking. 600 DM high pressure over that region. Never been done.

2010 was 588 maybe 592.

1B8ED0CD-368F-4EEB-83EB-9D79E810AEF6.thumb.png.640c58caf02a9264c8a71a7350fc3730.png

Lets see if it unfolds like that...

You’re such a tease Steve..

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

You’re such a tease Steve..

Lol - I'm not in control of the models 🙂

Lets see what the ECM brings - UKMO very chilly out to 144.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM > Black hole. Will check AO values prob -4 / -5

CCBD8DEC-3B91-467D-8816-A2AE9BF02D47.thumb.jpeg.062f73c16abc5cccb0f1d18e9049044e.jpeg

I'd just seen the GEM posted on twitter 😉

I was thinking about taking it straight to the strat & pv thread (where things often seem a bit abstract and distant from the daily models), but very glad to see this commented on here. 

I'm assuming this means a very disrupted early pv, hence the -NAO

Should I be checking the historic winter archive? Was January 1987 of interest? 

Cheers. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...