Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    To get the candy out of the way first, the GFS0z had a stonker of a northerly late in FI.

    spacer.png

    The Euro out to day 10 largely maintains the pattern of recent days in that blocking to our north and north east sees an easterly for the UK (cool and cloudy and possibly wet in the south) with greater undercutting leading to low pressure becoming trapped underneath. 

    spacer.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!😜🤪

    03A8A027-2BAC-4B0F-9C15-1A024194AE12.jpeg.1a55b777821dc4d7c00f8303e1ec4953.jpeg2FDDBC6B-9CCF-4505-A4C6-85B484BBDA52.thumb.png.fdb1363c945f26b7a859dd8713aa441d.pngBE956447-D883-4719-BEDC-F15DFB8E09BD.thumb.png.b22cc6bda77c4c61c93d02a79233de07.png

     

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

    Friday 9 October

     

    Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

    Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

    Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

    Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

    These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

    Friday 9 October

     

    Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

    Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

    Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

    Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

    These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     

    Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
    Well, thats what im reading from it...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    To my untrained eye, the settled signal for next week, which at one time looked quite strong, has become more and more diluted to the point where it’s not really looking settled at all..and I’m using the GEFS / ECM means plus the operational output so far today!!!!!😁:shok:😜🧐

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Does this model supposedly run into November/December?

    Yes runs early part of November interesting.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!😜🤪

    03A8A027-2BAC-4B0F-9C15-1A024194AE12.jpeg.1a55b777821dc4d7c00f8303e1ec4953.jpeg2FDDBC6B-9CCF-4505-A4C6-85B484BBDA52.thumb.png.fdb1363c945f26b7a859dd8713aa441d.pngBE956447-D883-4719-BEDC-F15DFB8E09BD.thumb.png.b22cc6bda77c4c61c93d02a79233de07.png

     

    An Indian summer for the south after all?! 😜

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
    Well, thats what im reading from it...

    I think we best agree not to totally agree there m. If you look at the days previous to last evening then NOAA is rather different in one or two ways. They may be important but as it has only shown the current prediction once I prefer to wait like I suggested. You may turn out correct with your forecast but it is great to see someone using them in a positive way. Cheers mate.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    4 hours ago, abbie123 said:

    No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

    2E1FB039-08E3-4588-91F8-4EAAF34F4CEE.png

    A24787BF-9FA7-4E64-8EC8-B94B1176F6BA.png

    20D1CADF-8817-4641-BF62-AB6B15A24E44.png

    Last week of October looking mild and wet? Hope not!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    A wildly different ECM tonight..

    image.thumb.png.dc57d5ec83b211862d1e98683d338c82.png

    Deep low over the UK by next Sunday. Not seen this in any other output yet!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.2831564a2cc2b4a1091b6666abf8b212.pngimage.thumb.png.8322641a08b6a5030da6ed6062bbaf5b.png

    Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

    ecm500.072.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    image.thumb.png.2831564a2cc2b4a1091b6666abf8b212.pngimage.thumb.png.8322641a08b6a5030da6ed6062bbaf5b.png

    Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

    ecm500.072.png

    I’m not sure where you are plucking 20c from....but that chart certainly isn’t even close! UK maxes are around 9-14c for Monday on tonight’s ecm. The only way you’d see 20c plus this time of year is a straight southerly draw.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The ECM 12z operational certainly isn’t all bad, away from the SE there’s a marked improvement during the second half of the working week thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure bringing largely fine conditions, pleasant in the sunshine but where skies are clear overnight, it would turn cold with slight frosts and given the time of year, some mist / fog could be an issue...but then it turns very unsettled for all.
    2392FB04-4312-47E6-9801-39AEBFA3C3F6.thumb.png.edc75ba8ef6fee856b07bd728806728d.png99689289-B78E-46D5-9139-07E4EB063618.thumb.png.c6e934701ef4b831113da5f35d697b61.pngF2029A96-C055-4859-BF52-05CE10AFB391.thumb.png.07057b5a21dd5282a59702a9c60ee90e.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

    C

    850temp_20201009_00_240 (1).jpg

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

    C

    850temp_20201009_00_240 (1).jpg

    Always good to see the advance of the arctic front and the depth of cold behind it.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    7D752431-C2A6-497A-BD84-EFD493A0B01A.thumb.jpeg.6e10aa9958c2d710a4a7f1eb462a43e7.jpeg

    As expected - ECM op had a meltdown after day 8 tonight and should be ignored!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Good morning.

    This is the GEM.

    32884169-E49E-4F6B-AD21-56BA9C5A8807.thumb.jpeg.cdd3a4ca7ef467e2bfac72b792e0efe5.jpeg50C61200-B8AF-4010-871A-AC177A92DA98.thumb.jpeg.dfefdf413c3745a29a2380e678b76a15.jpeg

     

    In terms of being extraordinary its on a par   ( but better ) with 2010 & Jan 12 1987, not necessarily for UK cold but for that record breaking intense high just west of Greenland - Note the anomaly.

    I wrote about these 'super' intense high pressures 3-4 years ago.

    You will never find a chart like this in the archives as its record breaking. 600 DM high pressure over that region. Never been done.

    2010 was 588 maybe 592.

    1B8ED0CD-368F-4EEB-83EB-9D79E810AEF6.thumb.png.640c58caf02a9264c8a71a7350fc3730.png

    Lets see if it unfolds like that...

    You’re such a tease Steve..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    39 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

    You’re such a tease Steve..

    Lol - I'm not in control of the models 🙂

    Lets see what the ECM brings - UKMO very chilly out to 144.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM > Black hole. Will check AO values prob -4 / -5

    CCBD8DEC-3B91-467D-8816-A2AE9BF02D47.thumb.jpeg.062f73c16abc5cccb0f1d18e9049044e.jpeg

    I'd just seen the GEM posted on twitter 😉

    I was thinking about taking it straight to the strat & pv thread (where things often seem a bit abstract and distant from the daily models), but very glad to see this commented on here. 

    I'm assuming this means a very disrupted early pv, hence the -NAO

    Should I be checking the historic winter archive? Was January 1987 of interest? 

    Cheers. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    15 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    I think we best agree not to totally agree there m. If you look at the days previous to last evening then NOAA is rather different in one or two ways. They may be important but as it has only shown the current prediction once I prefer to wait like I suggested. You may turn out correct with your forecast but it is great to see someone using them in a positive way. Cheers mate.

    imho they are struggling to handle the expected build of pressure to our north next week, an irregular pattern which they all struggle to understand as opposed to a regular atlantic driven long wave pattern.

    Low confidence for the current 8-14 day chart, and the 6-10 dayer has increased the low pressure anomaly to our south. So imho its looking more showery today then previously for the southern half of the UK.

    IMHO the latest ECM (00z) follows pretty much what id expect the NOAA 's are suggesting.... sorry not got time to post charts.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...