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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    11 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    JFF...

    i have found a couple of stonkers from the gefs ens to whet the appetite 🥶😜 

    pert...18,23

    gensnh-18-1-300.thumb.png.bac132cc94100eca4c67177f53b5b3dd.pnggensnh-18-0-300.thumb.png.065066f56f575d2fc0c5d7283a82c964.png

    gensnh-23-1-300.thumb.png.76255ec3dd5c0107e04179c41b3f54b3.pnggensnh-23-0-300.thumb.png.d7a3a459e8f0f2f063145ff002d28f35.png

    huge cherry picking i know but whilst they are showing them then i will post them😉

    the latest from CFSv2 keeps on showing these northern blocking scenario's too...

    three days ago compared to the latest for Nov.

    cfsnh-3-11-2020.thumb.png.ec6c33bd86bb99ff4110cc415e3c49f6.png1848258891_cfsnh-3-11-2020(1).thumb.png.61ffd80c1356ecebf02156d53a58798d.png

    good continuity and consistency from CFS.  

     

    I'm blue daboodee daboudie

    Sorry for such a long qoute

    Edited by Xanderp009
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Cold and biting down south warmth up north i knew 2020 was wierd but

    image.png

    ecmwind.240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Things starting to look very messy beyond the weekend into next week - a whole variety of outcomes on offer now.

    Let's have a look at day 10...

    ECM has a Scandi high/Euro low:

    image.thumb.png.51a7b7d577733ee2d091e18a5f5260a5.png


    GEM has a Greenland high and a Euro high:

    image.thumb.png.734ac0b2e140c43a5bb7202c26b75a28.png


    GFS somewhere between the two:

    image.thumb.png.8fe14723407ff00e0c9f8af90e70bf33.png

    Overall though - the more settled signal isn't as strong as it was a few days ago. Still very uncertain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    The Overview chart for day 10 from the Latest ECM High Res run firming up on a Euro Low to form next week with a strong Scandinavian high. Southern Britain in prime position for its first colder flow of the season from the East. A bit of snow forecast for the Eastern Alps according to this picture. More of an update on this development on the Austrian thread. The shorter term model from UKMO seems also seems to be heading for a cyclonic flow to form across the British Isles assisted by the European Low.

    C

    overview_20201006_00_240.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I agree..well I can’t disagree that the settled signal next week has become more diluted compared to yesterday but that doesn’t preclude high pressure building in strongly or even some mid October warmth!!!!!🙂😉

    8D650D74-D33C-4503-90A1-F3305039088C.thumb.png.8977e2bbce90e972dd7f85fb4aa4c66a.png3FBEAF34-EC47-4DD8-829C-3217B604A661.thumb.png.66f34593f4b54a04f3c8041a63744a0e.pngE4C4D432-BCDD-40BB-A1E1-3D734A29DDFF.thumb.png.e4f9cf90f5346efa5a497dd1f07ea276.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The difference between the GFS and Euro output seems to depend on whether a secondary low develops around day 6. The GFS (and it looks like like the UKMO is) develop this as a coherent feature which essentially allows the current pattern to continue until the low starts backing west. On the Euro this feature never properly develops and so with less support, pressure builds above the Euro low. 

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 6z mean does improve for a time next week beyond the current unsettled spell with high pressure / strong ridging but then things go downhill again during mid month and beyond...BUT...there are still some better settled options on the table which could still mean a more sustained settled period which would tie in with Exeter’s thoughts..well, recent thoughts.. 💭 anyway!!!!!☀️🙂😉:shok:

    14E30AAD-E8CA-488D-A2C0-E1516FE70CE6.thumb.png.b7cb9f7269cc8881be1c9cb5146fe71c.png93C42828-ECAC-400C-8E08-6C47088C8105.thumb.png.cfac5298a020b50f85b153b6b9e3aa39.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    UKMO isn’t bad tonight. Icon utterly horrendous, and gfs somewhere in between. Still lots of model volatility.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Just happy to see the dreaded NW'ly flow cut off, at last

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20201006/12/21/h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    4F214769-D5F1-49F7-8DE0-606255821ECD.thumb.png.266d73de2b442589347422c72b429532.png

    ECM setting up a strong flow off the North Sea....no thanks! 🤒 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    4F214769-D5F1-49F7-8DE0-606255821ECD.thumb.png.266d73de2b442589347422c72b429532.png

    ECM setting up a strong flow off the North Sea....no thanks! 🤒 

    better than from the NW, and Scottish snow dump on this, FI low res but most wintry chart I've seen since March

    image.thumb.png.c2e568c673c8f86d1a2faf79a5d1159f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    4F214769-D5F1-49F7-8DE0-606255821ECD.thumb.png.266d73de2b442589347422c72b429532.png

    ECM setting up a strong flow off the North Sea....no thanks! 🤒 

    I'd rather get a kick in the goolies!:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    I'd rather get a kick in the goolies!:oldlaugh:

    Hello General ,

     

    never seen you here before but brilliant name, had me chuckling at that one ! 😅 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Despite the GEFS 12z mean indicating unsettled weather returning with a vengeance from next midweek...there are some anticyclonic members too..hopefully we will get one of these!!!😜☀️..certainly better than a kick in the goolies!🧐:shok:

    44D688FC-3430-47F0-901A-F908C99FA9AD.jpeg.a7ed4d10bfaf723af41931b9c8910839.jpeg927A0444-C068-4BCC-BDC3-64300EB314F9.thumb.png.6b103975ed4610b0b3c2bfe829c6685b.pngDE59CF4B-C57F-4EB8-97F3-520BF056E3DA.thumb.png.96b99729c1932a21e016164fd517f51a.png4A9ECD2E-A8BF-4E40-92B6-2FEA5700043B.thumb.png.54f064d23cb25b07478e6f30e26c32d4.png969DB383-36F3-404B-8F1E-52B2BB07A4B7.thumb.png.4e2baacc956ea38ad50fe52fb63670f5.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GFS Ensembles definitely trending the wrong way - mean below 1020mb now. Might be a case of just getting lucky and avoiding the fronts and rain rather than bona fide high pressure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    GFS Ensembles definitely trending the wrong way - mean below 1020mb now. Might be a case of just getting lucky and avoiding the fronts and rain rather than bona fide high pressure.

    or at least have them timed for the night, settled weather does tend to downgrade

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM 12z mean T192:

    7549FE82-C5DA-4BA2-ADD4-996D49AA2928.thumb.gif.5fd22805dd4b8b35e4dff157e273cc6a.gif

    Still saying settled, obviously not warm given the wind direction, T240:

    8B398D57-DE7A-4BB2-A904-CAF52CFF8154.thumb.gif.773d10868212a6c44b51329fc6f5842f.gif

    This is a non-signal from a mean output, anything is possible!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.786572da101fc8c5df4a411d8053df27.png

    Some warmth next weel a big drop in temperature to down south as well some showers and rain perhaps

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Models continuing to look fairly changeable again today. GFS pressure ensemble has now fallen down to between 1015-1010mb in the mid to longer range. This mornings ECM is also showing this, with a fleeting attempt to build high pressure early next week collapsing away at day 9/10. That darned Eastern European block looks like holding firm.

    image.thumb.png.0dd325f73c04184dc3e8ed5d010b84b6.pngimage.thumb.png.fb836ef72365b9083a28f9011a9cc93e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.5598bf6492e0f702f5ff5fa338ee9eb6.pngimage.thumb.png.e4395440094883abc03861d0affd3d16.png

    AO and NAO also predicted to fall through the floor. Could put some early stress on our PV friend!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro is messy so probably won't come off but it essentially strengthens the european low significantly and by 9 the Atlantic is heading through again.

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Good morning Tamara and one and all. I hope you've been staying safe through this godawful virus. And, Tamara, re. your move: wow. SW Europe is a large area so are you able to be a little more specific? How wonderful.

    I'm making a brief foray onto the forum ahead of winter when I'm mostly on here. I wanted to state ahead of time that I think the GFS has gone down the plughole with its medium and longterm charts. I have long championed the GFS as the Gold Standard. Well, not any more. I've been monitoring the GFS for weeks and I don't know what has happened to it but it is utter junk. Complete rubbish. It spews out chart after chart totally at variance with previous runs and which usually bears absolutely no relation to what actually unfolds.

    Anything past T144 you're better off putting on a blindfold and pinning a tail on the donkey than using the GFS.

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