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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Depends on ones definition of cold, if you’re stood on top of a Scottish mountain I imagine it would feel cold!😁:whistling::shok:

15EDF8FE-BC8E-46C8-A6A7-994E9C8CDCB9.thumb.png.c750ae8b4abb052e21f0fc4f6bb1d1ef.png129EE2FB-EB80-4E94-85B6-24C46F184060.thumb.png.8c2c2c073797d09df74108489cd0d214.png

you know what i mean like less than 5oc

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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Amazing warmth pushing right up north over the US eastern seaboard by mid October. It penetrates high up into the arctic. Would this be a good omen/increase the chances of a possible strat November Canadian warming? 

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Just saying 😀

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The change to something more settled has taken a little bit of a backward step over the last day. Pesky features getting tangled in, as well as a couple of intense frontal waves crossing the UK at the end of the week. ECM this morning has one on Thursday and Friday, which combine to give another 2-4 inches of rain over a big chunk of England and Wales. Flooding inevitable.


rain.thumb.jpg.2d3620fed477cbf7a2646e606c1813d6.jpg

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Some of the output is starting to look quite ropey again even through the weekend and the beginning of next week:

CA470803-74CD-4CDA-AF2E-7D9C071C95AE.thumb.png.8aa03cc42aa39912cfeb7cca80ba4154.png
 

Icon goes fully unsettled again, but is on its own at the moment:

3D006B40-3E30-45A0-96E9-5A118CE5C857.thumb.png.93d6229e6069eabeb3f191ec58129512.png

 

The eastward progression of the ridges and troughs appears to have been overblown for the last few days, and low pressure isn’t clearing away as quickly as forecast. 

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Some of the output is starting to look quite ropey again even through the weekend and the beginning of next week:

CA470803-74CD-4CDA-AF2E-7D9C071C95AE.thumb.png.8aa03cc42aa39912cfeb7cca80ba4154.png
 

Icon goes fully unsettled again, but is on its own at the moment:

3D006B40-3E30-45A0-96E9-5A118CE5C857.thumb.png.93d6229e6069eabeb3f191ec58129512.png

 

The eastward progression of the ridges and troughs appears to have been overblown for the last few days, and low pressure isn’t clearing away as quickly as forecast. 

Aye but thankfully for this Thursday been a trend for an improvement, was due a write off, Sunday next week though, my guess wet, as above GFS chart

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20201005/12/72/ukprec.png

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GEM is also dreadful tonight - low pressure getting stuck and sticking around right out until day 10. Hopefully this isn’t a new trend and ECM is ok!

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5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 12z mean improves quite a lot during the course of next week in terms of high pressure bringing increasing amounts of fine weather..much better than this week for sure!😜

yay, although i like rain i hate cold so

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11 hours ago, mb018538 said:

The change to something more settled has taken a little bit of a backward step over the last day. Pesky features getting tangled in, as well as a couple of intense frontal waves crossing the UK at the end of the week. ECM this morning has one on Thursday and Friday, which combine to give another 2-4 inches of rain over a big chunk of England and Wales. Flooding inevitable.


rain.thumb.jpg.2d3620fed477cbf7a2646e606c1813d6.jpg

The story of this year really, apart from that spell between March and early June. It has just been so hard to get high pressure to establish itself. We also almost always seem to have cool air dragged down with the weather systems which just makes it more unpleasant.

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Early indications of a more settled spell by the middle of the month but with the trough over Europe, HP doesn't set up in a place to bring warmth. Whether it's to the North or North-West, it looks as though the SE will be plagued by a chilly breeze and it could be a traditional autumn HP of fine sunny days and foggy, frosty nights.

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After the weekend deluge a drying out process of sorts this week, further bouts of showery rain will give way to a drier colder feed by the end of the week, showery in a polar maritime airstream turning arctic maritime for a short time, before high pressure ridges in providing the recipe for frost and fog.

Longer term - perhaps a more settled outlook, whether heights can build through the UK and to our east to allow a more warmer airstream from the south remains to be seen, or we will see longwave trough to the NW come back and bring a further northerly airstream.

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