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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

    Depends on ones definition of cold, if you’re stood on top of a Scottish mountain I imagine it would feel cold!😁:whistling::shok:

    15EDF8FE-BC8E-46C8-A6A7-994E9C8CDCB9.thumb.png.c750ae8b4abb052e21f0fc4f6bb1d1ef.png129EE2FB-EB80-4E94-85B6-24C46F184060.thumb.png.8c2c2c073797d09df74108489cd0d214.png

    you know what i mean like less than 5oc

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS12z remains fairly cool into FI with pressure drawing in a cool and dry air mass (it then retrogresses in FI).

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    Amazing warmth pushing right up north over the US eastern seaboard by mid October. It penetrates high up into the arctic. Would this be a good omen/increase the chances of a possible strat November Canadian warming? 

    Screenshot_20201004-153704.png

    Screenshot_20201004-153728.png

    Just saying 😀

    Screenshot_20201004-180546.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    image.thumb.png.90fe41959925fcd0d38ee1c72a4a4fb7.png

    Morning all up with the lark(and nearly being late) looks like saturday has some cold in store for us along with a biting wind

    ecmt850.144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The change to something more settled has taken a little bit of a backward step over the last day. Pesky features getting tangled in, as well as a couple of intense frontal waves crossing the UK at the end of the week. ECM this morning has one on Thursday and Friday, which combine to give another 2-4 inches of rain over a big chunk of England and Wales. Flooding inevitable.


    rain.thumb.jpg.2d3620fed477cbf7a2646e606c1813d6.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Some of the output is starting to look quite ropey again even through the weekend and the beginning of next week:

    CA470803-74CD-4CDA-AF2E-7D9C071C95AE.thumb.png.8aa03cc42aa39912cfeb7cca80ba4154.png
     

    Icon goes fully unsettled again, but is on its own at the moment:

    3D006B40-3E30-45A0-96E9-5A118CE5C857.thumb.png.93d6229e6069eabeb3f191ec58129512.png

     

    The eastward progression of the ridges and troughs appears to have been overblown for the last few days, and low pressure isn’t clearing away as quickly as forecast. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Some of the output is starting to look quite ropey again even through the weekend and the beginning of next week:

    CA470803-74CD-4CDA-AF2E-7D9C071C95AE.thumb.png.8aa03cc42aa39912cfeb7cca80ba4154.png
     

    Icon goes fully unsettled again, but is on its own at the moment:

    3D006B40-3E30-45A0-96E9-5A118CE5C857.thumb.png.93d6229e6069eabeb3f191ec58129512.png

     

    The eastward progression of the ridges and troughs appears to have been overblown for the last few days, and low pressure isn’t clearing away as quickly as forecast. 

    Aye but thankfully for this Thursday been a trend for an improvement, was due a write off, Sunday next week though, my guess wet, as above GFS chart

    https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20201005/12/72/ukprec.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    bbc though still going for the deluge, yesterdays fax though not so

    https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif?0image.thumb.png.787bfe143e9fead0dd7f931c46c50dd9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GEM is also dreadful tonight - low pressure getting stuck and sticking around right out until day 10. Hopefully this isn’t a new trend and ECM is ok!

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The GEFS 12z mean improves quite a lot during the course of next week in terms of high pressure bringing increasing amounts of fine weather..much better than this week for sure!😜

    yay, although i like rain i hate cold so

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    11 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    The change to something more settled has taken a little bit of a backward step over the last day. Pesky features getting tangled in, as well as a couple of intense frontal waves crossing the UK at the end of the week. ECM this morning has one on Thursday and Friday, which combine to give another 2-4 inches of rain over a big chunk of England and Wales. Flooding inevitable.


    rain.thumb.jpg.2d3620fed477cbf7a2646e606c1813d6.jpg

    The story of this year really, apart from that spell between March and early June. It has just been so hard to get high pressure to establish itself. We also almost always seem to have cool air dragged down with the weather systems which just makes it more unpleasant.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Early indications of a more settled spell by the middle of the month but with the trough over Europe, HP doesn't set up in a place to bring warmth. Whether it's to the North or North-West, it looks as though the SE will be plagued by a chilly breeze and it could be a traditional autumn HP of fine sunny days and foggy, frosty nights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    After the weekend deluge a drying out process of sorts this week, further bouts of showery rain will give way to a drier colder feed by the end of the week, showery in a polar maritime airstream turning arctic maritime for a short time, before high pressure ridges in providing the recipe for frost and fog.

    Longer term - perhaps a more settled outlook, whether heights can build through the UK and to our east to allow a more warmer airstream from the south remains to be seen, or we will see longwave trough to the NW come back and bring a further northerly airstream.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Stonking FI -AO.

    image.thumb.png.738666721372fd3307f32c741d459c14.png

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