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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

    Could it get a little chilly at night under those charts?  Even some frost?  Hoping to see a newspaper use the headline "0C tober....."

    For sure mid month could be technically on the cooler side although more settled for a time (at the very least!) before trending more unsettled again according to the GEFS 6z mean..so, some overnight slight ground frosts could occur during the mid Oct period but I’m not seeing anything to severe at this stage!!!😜🧐:shok:

    01E7143F-AFC3-4E56-BB10-77678D79D82D.thumb.png.051739001ce2489a0365453a6414158f.png3FB08BFD-50D7-4492-8DDF-FF00A8F7F05B.thumb.png.1b64555977ac5f49eaba2cd8fc8eacdc.png2D232B48-843D-4850-A709-A8425175DB74.thumb.png.31afac3161e9446a8cc3f3d6c09601dd.pngEF1D4768-C44C-4539-AB37-9E7BDA2F3C2A.thumb.png.6e1d569c38c10bf341d17703923b144f.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Although the GEFS 6z mean eventually swings to more unsettled again, that doesn’t make it necessarily so!...there is a much bigger picture (other models etc..etc) and in any case there are still some settled 6z members longer term, even some pleasantly warm ones!..if there was any wintry looking Synoptics showing for this period it would be a complete waste of time with winter still six weeks away..from mid Oct..patience cold grasshoppers!!!!!!!!😜😉

    3AE7A6F6-CB24-4945-A574-2822C09AB006.thumb.png.193bc1b1467be3bf978b19b98b43c75c.pngE0AC0161-5EDB-423C-B3A7-2B896EF875DD.thumb.png.ac2e0feedd48db1761516a1bf7891e74.png9213FE46-23CE-4527-8099-B22D5176304D.thumb.png.94db5ac85dfaa2e3ac0b5cc3f8e74aad.pngD7E2E1DF-657C-4F01-BFC0-4B292956557F.thumb.png.1e2ce32a2cbc32e156306eb99a3cd412.png98F596B1-D658-4104-A022-1B37C431BBBF.thumb.png.8bf9e242711afb3874de97f6c2ad1f4d.pngE37E9DA8-ADA7-4C42-BCEF-53609D42FAD3.thumb.png.0f0939ab1464c7f82c802cf23cc6fc41.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Very cold early week after next week but possibly sone warmth coming from the west

    ecmt850.216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    October Fog Index has got off to a dire start lol. Hopefully the weather can settle down soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 hours ago, Xanderp009 said:

    A very cold on thursday

    render-gorax-green-004-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-DSuK3x.png

    ? ukmaxtemp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Yep, chilly for the far(ish) North and West according to that chart for Thursday. But further South, looking fairly warm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Never going to happen  well extremely small chance but ECM 12z gave a good dumping to uplands of southern Scotland next Thursday. If we maintain jet stream to our south the more possibilities will arise for higher ground of north further into autumn.

    8F7197F1-8050-441C-84E0-79CA479BE46A.thumb.png.56510e302060d9afa23ca33a4c170bfe.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    After that though both GFS and EC shows decent weather! bring it on

    ECM1-192.GIF?03-0ECM1-216.GIF?03-0gfs-0-180.png?12gfs-0-204.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    Spread increases as we descend into Autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere.  I wouldn't rule out the chance of some Autumn warmth later this month with a couple of members exceeding 10°C at the 850hPa level.  Contrastingly, there are a number of models going for a rather cool middle part of October.  I think we can say with relative confidence that the washout we are currently enduring will at least calm down a little into the middle of the month.

    gefsens850Cardiff0 (7).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

    Spread increases as we descend into Autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere.  I wouldn't rule out the chance of some Autumn warmth later this month with a couple of members exceeding 10°C at the 850hPa level.  Contrastingly, there are a number of models going for a rather cool middle part of October.  I think we can say with relative confidence that the washout we are currently enduring will at least calm down a little into the middle of the month.

    gefsens850Cardiff0 (7).png

    Understandable to see increased spread out and beyond, it doesn’t help we have 10 more members too! I think what is quite clear the first half of October will be cool but good signs of settling down mid month thereafter we don’t really have a clue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    952342F1-4BBF-4C9C-A0F0-5D64DC94AC17.thumb.png.30e3da20966c337bf2cd4ebb53ab8d63.png74F37B3C-9596-4947-A8B1-06EFBEDAB92A.thumb.png.9d96ea841af98dc4df1ea61b3cb3e3dd.png
     

    Better conditions still in the forecast from the back end of next weekend onwards. Next week looking mainly unsettled with further showers or longer spells of rain in places.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!🧐😜:shok:

    A67DF545-90C1-4EC8-9A3A-6EC3F3B590F1.jpeg.4e9dbfece39d7113c2cd72dcebd57add.jpeg88989EB7-33B2-4F02-B7FC-F7E9D3D9B1F5.thumb.gif.7d01e00e3ac5aef562bce2cffe38ab07.gifA5ADA3C9-F395-4670-9EDD-3D62B9508C07.thumb.gif.6eba1f34b34ea076e8b99e2eb2e5786f.gif819CD6C7-832F-4EC6-B4D8-AC508F6C34F8.thumb.gif.0f825ebcc3d982ec28db9d8f7132fb0d.gif568A67AB-4346-4754-9243-52E5C9852CEF.thumb.gif.16ebbd8d79d0c3f1e0cc79e13280bace.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!🧐😜:shok:

    A67DF545-90C1-4EC8-9A3A-6EC3F3B590F1.jpeg.4e9dbfece39d7113c2cd72dcebd57add.jpeg88989EB7-33B2-4F02-B7FC-F7E9D3D9B1F5.thumb.gif.7d01e00e3ac5aef562bce2cffe38ab07.gifA5ADA3C9-F395-4670-9EDD-3D62B9508C07.thumb.gif.6eba1f34b34ea076e8b99e2eb2e5786f.gif819CD6C7-832F-4EC6-B4D8-AC508F6C34F8.thumb.gif.0f825ebcc3d982ec28db9d8f7132fb0d.gif568A67AB-4346-4754-9243-52E5C9852CEF.thumb.gif.16ebbd8d79d0c3f1e0cc79e13280bace.gif

    Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

    Well Ed, I mean General Cluster, I mean Pete!...you can’t beat a bit of bully..I mean high pressure!..and that’s what the Gfs 6z op shows beyond this unsettled filth!!!!!..should be some October fog index..given the time of year and all!!!!!😁😜🧐

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    E02D2398-8EC1-47C7-AFCE-85FB6FB651CC.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
    1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

    Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!

    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

    I like the cut of your jibs, chaps.  Please keep up this ‘good news’ theme as I am in desperate need of cheering up.  The UKMO rainfall accumulation chart for the next six days says almost everyone is going to get a soaking.....

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020100100_119_18_157.thumb.png.2a6c3d08546449b4e24f3cf26348e67b.png

    Oops.  Too late.  I think we’re already drenched.

    Edited by Sky Full
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    I like the cut of your jibs, chaps.

    • Arrr, Jim lad...thank you😉..I like the cut of the Gfs 6z jibs to..until near the end at least!:whistling:😁:shok:😜
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    2ED0FA14-813D-453C-A512-89BFCD11DA35.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
    • Arrr, Jim lad...thank you😉..I like the cut of the Gfs 6z jibs to..until near the end at least!:whistling:😁:shok:😜
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    But not everyone can read maps, Frosty, Karl, Jon! image.thumb.png.1dc8c856518112a7d6d4d5b12a2083d3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!😜🔥

     

    CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

    AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!😜🔥

     

    CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

    AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

    You may wake up to a Horses head next to you for posting that one!😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!😜🔥

     

    CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

    AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

    Nah, some October warmth is fine by me. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Amazing warmth pushing right up north over the US eastern seaboard by mid October. It penetrates high up into the arctic. Would this be a good omen/increase the chances of a possible strat November Canadian warming? 

    Screenshot_20201004-153704.png

    Screenshot_20201004-153728.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    14 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

    Depends on ones definition of cold, if you’re stood on top of a Scottish mountain I imagine it would feel cold!😁:whistling::shok:😜..that’s me done for the day..🤪!

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    Edited by Jon Snow
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    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
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