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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Anyone got any precipitation charts from ecm for the weekend?!!looks seriously wet across much of the uk!!

    rain.thumb.jpg.78c88fb3c89e681a8d8ab64df20a77ff.jpg

    Pretty bad across Wales and the SW especially.

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    Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

    ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    WOW the GEFS 0z mean has really perked up towards mid month..could it be that the more settled / anticyclonic signal is gaining strength?🧐..according to this evidence..it is!!!!😜☀️:shok:

    4B0346BD-B554-4FAF-917A-1DE411956A87.thumb.png.dd06d806ad2a11a228a31f9e79acb6f9.png06F853C8-478B-47F5-B421-DBB151063D06.thumb.png.10b284ef79e732a23ccaaf2fdd6f5163.png023BC4E4-9508-42B0-811A-AC1775FEBDA2.thumb.png.8664fe65e846fd82b9c4135f5d31f2c9.png67454D4A-51E9-49EA-8DC3-75601C91B8B8.thumb.png.4f026c6c1ae783d6f449c335ddde132c.png

    image.thumb.png.bb79fe566ae50c3bd3e3cb55c7268b2e.png

    Can someone explain the differences of these two for me? They are both the GEFS 00z for today....but that ensemble doesn't match those pressure charts at all. The pressure charts show a mean pressure of around 1027mb in London for the 13/14th, yet the ensemble is around 1020mb for the same time? I might be missing a very simple reason!

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    39 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro is a chart of beauty..

    spacer.png

    If it was January it would be for me.😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro is a chart of beauty..

    spacer.png

    Far too early in the year to realise it's full potential.  Shame really, let's just hope the strange behaviour of the atmosphere continues into winter...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

    Looks pretty bad into the midlands as well😫

    Indeed  a wet and wild few days over the weekend   Arperge   brings over 100mm of rain over a 48 hour period over the midlands   and parts of Wales and the South    welcome to Autumn 

    image.thumb.png.5131d0aa42af57a74a4463fe28693bd9.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    WOW the GEFS 0z mean has really perked up towards mid month..could it be that the more settled / anticyclonic signal is gaining strength?🧐..according to this evidence..it is!!!!😜☀️:shok:

    4B0346BD-B554-4FAF-917A-1DE411956A87.thumb.png.dd06d806ad2a11a228a31f9e79acb6f9.png06F853C8-478B-47F5-B421-DBB151063D06.thumb.png.10b284ef79e732a23ccaaf2fdd6f5163.png023BC4E4-9508-42B0-811A-AC1775FEBDA2.thumb.png.8664fe65e846fd82b9c4135f5d31f2c9.png67454D4A-51E9-49EA-8DC3-75601C91B8B8.thumb.png.4f026c6c1ae783d6f449c335ddde132c.png

    The GEFS 6z mean has flipped to unsettled during mid month compared to the anticyclonic 0z mean but that doesn’t preclude our weather settling down to some degree as these 6z members show!!!😉:shok:

    B2229718-E8E8-4D3F-889C-F9ECE34538EA.thumb.png.1087307ab01843d9a28bbb118de80a2b.png8589780C-D104-470C-8014-436F2CFE2D28.thumb.png.99fe52af88b7e565fe2a069a97d0d1f7.png68C10759-88A4-4DFC-AC3B-589CC8220F62.thumb.png.9fed8a68077e85607abf462669995d42.png9235D438-E1FD-4528-A41C-92F2B41CB01D.thumb.png.6a93ab11a5c22c3377e6c3d9c7bf4dd8.png397C6AE5-F5F7-4405-8460-48808CA1B4A2.thumb.png.78094b11a8cc9645205876d31f507a46.pngC4CCE0F3-6700-4746-B5D5-B7E90E64B782.thumb.png.6d9cb459f809e4779eb9860a218f2970.png

     

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Big Greenland high again on the ECM . I really hope we’re still be seeing these come Nov/Dec. 🙏🏻

    0CA3C9D5-2EA6-4B22-BF5F-E17185FF3815.png

    4D224377-6353-4B97-8722-CFD00E5893AE.png
     

    Edit - beat me to it @booferking 🙂

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The coldie lurking in me would have been curious about days 12 / 13 etc..etc..on the ECM 12z op if it went out that far!!!!?😁😜:shok:🥶

    71A54D01-7C40-42C1-861C-3726448A4DC6.thumb.png.eeebf7f179b9689b8814c9a040d4bacb.png9DB5829F-500A-4701-AC8C-53A3C9BCDA62.thumb.png.67c06ceb2aa7c565cc6690e54bb4acf0.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Very impressive ecm day 10:

    83D193EC-317B-4248-970A-18682B1AC802.thumb.png.1cb64a526e0f5a1c4c04baee0db47b78.png

    Wont amount to anything this early in the season, but that’d be absolutely epic in January!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Whilst this is the warm up period for winter ( or rather the cool down ) the ECM is good day 10 eye candy - I wonder when the last GH was in October !

    Anyway ECM mean clearly trends towards the operations 00z V 12z shows a more cut off high-

    C49AB093-418D-4007-9480-C42D3E54FE46.thumb.jpeg.f1d47f4963b5ad05fafc39bde3bc41f5.jpeg54198242-6126-4A9A-BB24-8CEA116EBBFC.thumb.jpeg.d83c2c978269b9b8402619a6131317a7.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    Whilst this is the warm up period for winter ( or rather the cool down ) the ECM is good day 10 eye candy - I wonder when the last GH was in October !

    Anyway ECM mean clearly trends towards the operations 00z V 12z shows a more cut off high-

    C49AB093-418D-4007-9480-C42D3E54FE46.thumb.jpeg.f1d47f4963b5ad05fafc39bde3bc41f5.jpeg54198242-6126-4A9A-BB24-8CEA116EBBFC.thumb.jpeg.d83c2c978269b9b8402619a6131317a7.jpeg

    Interesting but I’m not sure that this is where the blocking needs best to be to impede vortex strengthening in mid Autumn though, Steve.  If we are putting our money on our best shot being a front loaded winter because of La Niña?  If we are?  What do you think?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    14 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.f5893791dfa225103259c488eafa8998.pngimage.thumb.png.036bf8f6332774cdef8449f7ab36e862.png

    Day 10 ECM this morning - If only it were January....

    A major snow fest - long lasting, load on load. Alas it's early October copious rainfall only  but probably snow on high ground eventually.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ^ Thanks for the reply @Steve Murrinteresting, let’s see how it goes, I do have some hopes for this winter, but not everything is in alignment.  Is it ever?  

    Meanwhile the ‘kicked out of the pub’ run has this:

    anim_dne7.gif

    This really isn’t that bad for the south at least, beyond early next week.  Over-hyped as usual. 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    Very impressive ecm day 10:

    83D193EC-317B-4248-970A-18682B1AC802.thumb.png.1cb64a526e0f5a1c4c04baee0db47b78.png

    Wont amount to anything this early in the season, but that’d be absolutely epic in January!

    These charts make me nervous at this time of year in that come December/January they will be nowhere to be seen!

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    think people should watch  out could get a bit wild they soon

    Screenshot_2020-10-02 Rain Alarm.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The unsettled theme is locked in for a while yet - but perhaps some signs of things starting to move:

    Mega Ural block at the moment is keeping low pressure trapped over the UK:

    image.thumb.png.30cfeff8b92d3c0aa1caf08b737d9c20.png

    Fast forward to day 9, and low pressure has finally broken through from the UK, and flattened and pushed this block further east:

    :image.thumb.png.567f4ec25bc10276282471782f9843b9.png

    Should finally dry out and quieten down a bit when this happens! GFS ensembles also showing pressure rising from current lows. Will a rise in AAM towards mid month save the day?

    image.thumb.png.c8995327a790e73a5a09901d5938cc16.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2b18424707061e473325d20b7d3c95.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    On 01/10/2020 at 07:20, CreweCold said:

    The behaviour of that LP system Fri-Sun is actually extremely interesting. Not often you see development like that from that direction at this time of year. Run the rainfall sequence through.

    Could be some high rainfall totals by the end of it.

    I've been thinking the same thing - I don't think in all my years of model watching that I've ever seen a LP system behave like this. The overnight GFS shows it moving across into the channel, down into France, then up over the UK, out into the North Atlantic, and then back down again, basically hanging around for a week - really unusual and interesting!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
  • Location: Bramley, NE Hampshire
    1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

    I've been thinking the same thing - I don't think in all my years of model watching that I've ever seen a LP system behave like this. The overnight GFS shows it moving across into the channel, down into France, then up over the UK, out into the North Atlantic, and then back down again, basically hanging around for a week - really unusual and interesting!

    The second unusual low pressure track we've seen this year. I think the other one was in June? It developed over the UK while tracking down from the north-west and ended up down near Portugal, before heading back our way to bring some of us (not me 😪) thundery period! It was the initial track of the low from Northwest Scotland, down to the central south, then off into France/Biscay, which seemed really unusual on that one.

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