Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone got any precipitation charts from ecm for the weekend?!!looks seriously wet across much of the uk!!

rain.thumb.jpg.78c88fb3c89e681a8d8ab64df20a77ff.jpg

Pretty bad across Wales and the SW especially.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

Posted Images

25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

WOW the GEFS 0z mean has really perked up towards mid month..could it be that the more settled / anticyclonic signal is gaining strength?🧐..according to this evidence..it is!!!!😜☀️:shok:

4B0346BD-B554-4FAF-917A-1DE411956A87.thumb.png.dd06d806ad2a11a228a31f9e79acb6f9.png06F853C8-478B-47F5-B421-DBB151063D06.thumb.png.10b284ef79e732a23ccaaf2fdd6f5163.png023BC4E4-9508-42B0-811A-AC1775FEBDA2.thumb.png.8664fe65e846fd82b9c4135f5d31f2c9.png67454D4A-51E9-49EA-8DC3-75601C91B8B8.thumb.png.4f026c6c1ae783d6f449c335ddde132c.png

image.thumb.png.bb79fe566ae50c3bd3e3cb55c7268b2e.png

Can someone explain the differences of these two for me? They are both the GEFS 00z for today....but that ensemble doesn't match those pressure charts at all. The pressure charts show a mean pressure of around 1027mb in London for the 13/14th, yet the ensemble is around 1020mb for the same time? I might be missing a very simple reason!

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro is a chart of beauty..

spacer.png

If it was January it would be for me.😁

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro is a chart of beauty..

spacer.png

Far too early in the year to realise it's full potential.  Shame really, let's just hope the strange behaviour of the atmosphere continues into winter...

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Looks pretty bad into the midlands as well😫

Indeed  a wet and wild few days over the weekend   Arperge   brings over 100mm of rain over a 48 hour period over the midlands   and parts of Wales and the South    welcome to Autumn 

image.thumb.png.5131d0aa42af57a74a4463fe28693bd9.png

Edited by weirpig
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

WOW the GEFS 0z mean has really perked up towards mid month..could it be that the more settled / anticyclonic signal is gaining strength?🧐..according to this evidence..it is!!!!😜☀️:shok:

4B0346BD-B554-4FAF-917A-1DE411956A87.thumb.png.dd06d806ad2a11a228a31f9e79acb6f9.png06F853C8-478B-47F5-B421-DBB151063D06.thumb.png.10b284ef79e732a23ccaaf2fdd6f5163.png023BC4E4-9508-42B0-811A-AC1775FEBDA2.thumb.png.8664fe65e846fd82b9c4135f5d31f2c9.png67454D4A-51E9-49EA-8DC3-75601C91B8B8.thumb.png.4f026c6c1ae783d6f449c335ddde132c.png

The GEFS 6z mean has flipped to unsettled during mid month compared to the anticyclonic 0z mean but that doesn’t preclude our weather settling down to some degree as these 6z members show!!!😉:shok:

B2229718-E8E8-4D3F-889C-F9ECE34538EA.thumb.png.1087307ab01843d9a28bbb118de80a2b.png8589780C-D104-470C-8014-436F2CFE2D28.thumb.png.99fe52af88b7e565fe2a069a97d0d1f7.png68C10759-88A4-4DFC-AC3B-589CC8220F62.thumb.png.9fed8a68077e85607abf462669995d42.png9235D438-E1FD-4528-A41C-92F2B41CB01D.thumb.png.6a93ab11a5c22c3377e6c3d9c7bf4dd8.png397C6AE5-F5F7-4405-8460-48808CA1B4A2.thumb.png.78094b11a8cc9645205876d31f507a46.pngC4CCE0F3-6700-4746-B5D5-B7E90E64B782.thumb.png.6d9cb459f809e4779eb9860a218f2970.png

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldie lurking in me would have been curious about days 12 / 13 etc..etc..on the ECM 12z op if it went out that far!!!!?😁😜:shok:🥶

71A54D01-7C40-42C1-861C-3726448A4DC6.thumb.png.eeebf7f179b9689b8814c9a040d4bacb.png9DB5829F-500A-4701-AC8C-53A3C9BCDA62.thumb.png.67c06ceb2aa7c565cc6690e54bb4acf0.png

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst this is the warm up period for winter ( or rather the cool down ) the ECM is good day 10 eye candy - I wonder when the last GH was in October !

Anyway ECM mean clearly trends towards the operations 00z V 12z shows a more cut off high-

C49AB093-418D-4007-9480-C42D3E54FE46.thumb.jpeg.f1d47f4963b5ad05fafc39bde3bc41f5.jpeg54198242-6126-4A9A-BB24-8CEA116EBBFC.thumb.jpeg.d83c2c978269b9b8402619a6131317a7.jpeg

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Whilst this is the warm up period for winter ( or rather the cool down ) the ECM is good day 10 eye candy - I wonder when the last GH was in October !

Anyway ECM mean clearly trends towards the operations 00z V 12z shows a more cut off high-

C49AB093-418D-4007-9480-C42D3E54FE46.thumb.jpeg.f1d47f4963b5ad05fafc39bde3bc41f5.jpeg54198242-6126-4A9A-BB24-8CEA116EBBFC.thumb.jpeg.d83c2c978269b9b8402619a6131317a7.jpeg

Interesting but I’m not sure that this is where the blocking needs best to be to impede vortex strengthening in mid Autumn though, Steve.  If we are putting our money on our best shot being a front loaded winter because of La Niña?  If we are?  What do you think?

Edited by Mike Poole
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.f5893791dfa225103259c488eafa8998.pngimage.thumb.png.036bf8f6332774cdef8449f7ab36e862.png

Day 10 ECM this morning - If only it were January....

A major snow fest - long lasting, load on load. Alas it's early October copious rainfall only  but probably snow on high ground eventually.

Link to post
Share on other sites

^ Thanks for the reply @Steve Murrinteresting, let’s see how it goes, I do have some hopes for this winter, but not everything is in alignment.  Is it ever?  

Meanwhile the ‘kicked out of the pub’ run has this:

anim_dne7.gif

This really isn’t that bad for the south at least, beyond early next week.  Over-hyped as usual. 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Very impressive ecm day 10:

83D193EC-317B-4248-970A-18682B1AC802.thumb.png.1cb64a526e0f5a1c4c04baee0db47b78.png

Wont amount to anything this early in the season, but that’d be absolutely epic in January!

These charts make me nervous at this time of year in that come December/January they will be nowhere to be seen!

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The unsettled theme is locked in for a while yet - but perhaps some signs of things starting to move:

Mega Ural block at the moment is keeping low pressure trapped over the UK:

image.thumb.png.30cfeff8b92d3c0aa1caf08b737d9c20.png

Fast forward to day 9, and low pressure has finally broken through from the UK, and flattened and pushed this block further east:

:image.thumb.png.567f4ec25bc10276282471782f9843b9.png

Should finally dry out and quieten down a bit when this happens! GFS ensembles also showing pressure rising from current lows. Will a rise in AAM towards mid month save the day?

image.thumb.png.c8995327a790e73a5a09901d5938cc16.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2b18424707061e473325d20b7d3c95.png 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/10/2020 at 07:20, CreweCold said:

The behaviour of that LP system Fri-Sun is actually extremely interesting. Not often you see development like that from that direction at this time of year. Run the rainfall sequence through.

Could be some high rainfall totals by the end of it.

I've been thinking the same thing - I don't think in all my years of model watching that I've ever seen a LP system behave like this. The overnight GFS shows it moving across into the channel, down into France, then up over the UK, out into the North Atlantic, and then back down again, basically hanging around for a week - really unusual and interesting!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

I've been thinking the same thing - I don't think in all my years of model watching that I've ever seen a LP system behave like this. The overnight GFS shows it moving across into the channel, down into France, then up over the UK, out into the North Atlantic, and then back down again, basically hanging around for a week - really unusual and interesting!

The second unusual low pressure track we've seen this year. I think the other one was in June? It developed over the UK while tracking down from the north-west and ended up down near Portugal, before heading back our way to bring some of us (not me 😪) thundery period! It was the initial track of the low from Northwest Scotland, down to the central south, then off into France/Biscay, which seemed really unusual on that one.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...