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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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A very unusual track for next weekend's slow, passing through the south of the UK into the northern France, then spiralling up over the low countries, back into the UK, down through it again before eventually clearing east. Ergo... as has been pointed out, a lot of rain. I think rain may be more notable than wind if the low is parked over the UK. 

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Morning!

No real change today. Looking for all the world that we will see our first named storm of the season sometime around next weekend.

The main models diverge on when the peak intensity of any winds from the low would be, as shown below. Could be any time from Friday to Monday!


image.thumb.png.a838058865afce5bd52e6ca06c48fa76.pngimage.thumb.png.ede30d1d92120cfdd4de75e5276b23a8.pngimage.thumb.png.f4cc29655546f2be078b97d22bb5402a.pngimage.thumb.png.ce7baf7cf6bf732892887fdc1ca95106.png

The prospects into the following week aren't much better, with low pressure hanging around like an unwanted guest. Models showing 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days across large areas of the UK. Wet and windy the order of the day. Any improvement not likely until sometime around mid month at the earliest.

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On 24/09/2020 at 17:05, mushymanrob said:

NOAA 500mb charts have been consistent for several days now, so its looking very much like an unsettled wet start to October is fairly certain...

 

610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

 

8 hours ago, mb018538 said:




image.thumb.png.a838058865afce5bd52e6ca06c48fa76.pngimage.thumb.png.ede30d1d92120cfdd4de75e5276b23a8.pngimage.thumb.png.f4cc29655546f2be078b97d22bb5402a.pngimage.thumb.png.ce7baf7cf6bf732892887fdc1ca95106.png

The prospects into the following week aren't much better, with low pressure hanging around like an unwanted guest. Models showing 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days across large areas of the UK. Wet and windy the order of the day. Any improvement not likely until sometime around mid month at the earliest.

Yup.... yet again the ops are following what the NOAA charts have long been suggesting..

That block to our northeast isnt going anywhere fast, so i for one completely agree that the first half of October is looking unsettled and wet, possibly very wet..

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A major change from ECMWF ahead of the winter.

 

Can anyone summarise exactly what will become freely available ?  Can’t believe that the data which currently costs in excess of 100k per annum will suddenly become gratis !

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In amongst all the unsettled carnage on the latest model output there are a few anticyclones swimming against the tide in the GEFS 6z but to be honest, those of us who prefer calm autumn conditions will have to roll with the punches as it looks 👀 like a generally very unsettled spell is about to descend upon us for some considerable time although that doesn’t preclude the occasional more settled interlude.
25D6DF4C-AB9F-4187-B9A5-67A931C2DF02.thumb.png.5faef7e04782274d10c3adf691a88f5c.png291C796B-9831-40FB-9766-43EAE01C6283.thumb.png.fcd6d7be2654b6ef75854fb9c0f64c37.png

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can anyone summarise exactly what will become freely available ?  Can’t believe that the data which currently costs in excess of 100k per annum will suddenly become gratis !

It seems so.   

Quote

Early October will see the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) take a major step towards making hundreds of its forecast maps free and available to all. The changes are part of wider moves across Europe to make public sector data free and open, to encourage innovation and to support a thriving, data-based digital economy.

Charts will cover the whole world, all types of weather situations including extreme events, and, very importantly, will also include probability-based information, providing guidance on forecast confidence.

Up till now, full access to these forecast charts was restricted to the national meteorological and hydrological services of ECMWF’s Member and Co-operating States, World Meteorological Organisation members and commercial customers. Access was subject to a range of bespoke licences and often incurred charges.

https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

 

Yup.... yet again the ops are following what the NOAA charts have long been suggesting..

That block to our northeast isnt going anywhere fast, so i for one completely agree that the first half of October is looking unsettled and wet, possibly very wet..

Also very windy at times

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I count about 4 posts on the models today, reaching new depths of inactivity in here at moment. No surprise because it's a repeat of recent days viewing, unsettled for all, very wet for some, possibly very windy for some, first storm of the season and cool as well. 

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On 25/09/2020 at 16:30, Tim Bland said:

I thought the theory of the October Fog leading to a cold winter was related to a big high pressure cell over the uk which ‘could’ migrate north or north east to provide blocking conditions for early winter?

Yes high pressure is needed for fog, OFI looks like it is going to get off to a shocker

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4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yes high pressure is needed for fog, OFI looks like it is going to get off to a shocker

Not only... I've had as many fog days from slack low pressure and neither high/low pressure setups. Some examples that have delivered fog here in recent years:

gfs-2019101500-0-6.png archives-2018-10-20-0-0.png archives-2017-10-18-0-0.png archives-2016-10-31-0-0.png archives-2014-10-29-12-0.png archives-2013-10-15-0-0.png

No sign of either in the models though, so we may have to wait a while. Seems to be mid October before lingering fog becomes a thing. 

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12 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Yeah I read that .....still none the wiser .....

"Charts will cover the whole world, all types of weather situations including extreme events, and, very importantly, will also include probability-based information, providing guidance on forecast confidence" 

The move to open data appears to be at odds to other open data access where the access was to the data not the interpretation of the data. 

I wonder if this will pressurise the Met Office to follow suit 

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There’s no doubt that the low pressure heading our way could intensify but unusually, for this run at least, the GFS intensifies the storm over France on Saturday while the others suggest it will be over the UK on Monday.  Not much to say except at least it won’t be too cold.....   GEM had us right in the bullseye.  💨💦

                                            500s                                                        850s 

+96 h       3rd October

ECM        D223822F-E666-4264-BA4B-759777AF06CE.thumb.gif.13f8a73cf72383955f942d10658cadf7.gif   D654628A-A3A4-45D5-A515-AC360B8438F5.thumb.gif.985864ea982260f6ff444b595fefed13.gif

UKMO     AF010ABC-71B2-42EC-9963-DBCE06F9A2AD.thumb.gif.c236ec7118c74f6b59c04c5deeb4da02.gif   82A4451A-EB9C-45C1-8925-177FDF80F34E.thumb.gif.329a982ffc49d38e8e95e7fba2790637.gif

GFS        970BC01F-1F18-459C-9DD7-6FCC0ECDB96A.thumb.png.5229ec082b8c5179ebb4014afe93fa00.png    BA48C270-4E36-4C2C-A0E6-0CDB6325A905.thumb.png.a22cc01f4d502023bfab2ce2d78cf770.png

GEM       27C61689-35A3-4A30-AAE4-DF128F31879E.thumb.png.de3ae28efd834dfcae2fe68193a6467f.png   FC8CFF9F-8C06-4023-A87B-941722DAAB48.thumb.png.15909717fdf669c6e2f4566f95c42c39.png

+144 h.     5th October 

ECM       45E12808-A926-4B28-BD84-E8A30A6D90CD.thumb.gif.e452fbd69f4a04e17b737ec75d4095af.gif   54E15C54-BB7E-47C5-9247-4D7B1E22F738.thumb.gif.254fa2f23f77cab8e4167c6354c5d4cf.gif

UKMO    935A6680-4E59-4B5C-A4B1-4EC3BD6CF79B.thumb.gif.613f56a4d6942c1487c6b598384b3b2c.gif   154AFD27-5F18-492F-B0F0-7C137184006C.thumb.gif.b8c5afa022d7296ecd3910ed9684fc12.gif

GFS       9D48AE1C-1856-446B-B490-E23A90C9BFB3.thumb.png.1c0d3c4a6f8af4c40977898749c93908.png   DC428A6B-2881-451C-A3D3-D8090DDFC0E5.thumb.png.cd8176c2cb831b3d56d3b917fbac0a37.png

GEM       8A75D63B-26C6-493A-8CB0-6233A25A2848.thumb.png.5978ccecff035d9b7b7090b0ef4b8926.png   C679A3C8-E9BD-488F-B530-E9F87F9D24DC.thumb.png.ecf56a6670e4a5d49010015a9e83dd0c.png

 

Edited by Sky Full
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Yep, I think I mentioned something along the same lines in this thread back in April/May time, and got an earful.

Rain is never far away in this Country, and that's certainly the case over the next 2 weeks.

I shall enjoy the last dry day today,with a lovely long walk with the dog. 

Edited by SteveB
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30 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not half, 10117838637574653653 is a heck of a lot of rain.

Someone really has to sort the minimum spacing out on those charts 😂

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Well sure is a stormy wet period coming up.  Not sure I see the 5 consecutive named Atlantic storms, that was in some of the papers today, in this evenings output.  ECM take:

anim_spl0.gif

Looks to stabilise after two depressions?  Rainfall over the 10 days, GFS take, very wet for some:

81EB1BE8-C399-487F-A5CB-55E762F2453D.thumb.gif.5b69e017e76298f23a8b1f072c188e80.gif

Edited by Mike Poole
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