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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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9 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Sorry but I don’t find wet & windy weather interesting which is the longer term trend from the ECM 12z etc..etc.....but I do find this interesting..deep FI range cfs!😁:cold:😉 ❄️ 

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Oooh, Jon.  You are a naughty boy!  But I agree that our prospects in the immediate future are far from exciting.  The start of October looks cloudy, cool and very wet  at times if the GFS gets its way with slack low pressure meandering around over the UK for eight days.....

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GFS 00Z op pretty much a warm outlier in terms of 850s thankfully, although the control does follow it closely. Bring on the autumn weather I say, we've had our fair share of warmth and dry weather this September.

xddxSzY.png

Edited by NewEra21
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11 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Sorry but I don’t find wet & windy weather interesting which is the longer term trend from the ECM 12z etc..etc.....but I do find this interesting..deep FI range cfs!😁:cold:😉 ❄️ 

AA80F9A0-FE2B-4EB8-8533-FB4B83C2F9DB.thumb.png.11ddb00915e891bdf95f4032965fb5dd.png3B5C4298-1617-4462-A763-C1BC8B69CCA2.thumb.png.df1269f139d6b2b6cccc7df5d49e78ec.png653082FF-14FE-4393-950F-D1F041728055.thumb.png.2d935a9ef6dcbd446a71ff87430521af.png84FAA7EE-B61E-4BFF-952E-80BD610173BA.thumb.png.004c1665980cac402c439cd25a91d865.png


 

What an utterly vile outlook we have in store, Jon? So, if cold rain is what you're after, this one's for you! God, I hate autumn!:oldsad:

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21 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It would be more interesting had it been a December chart though 😁

Even if it was end of october i would have got kinda excited lol!!you just know come 1 month from now vortex will probably be raging away around greenland/iceland!

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As per last night both the Euro and GFS interestingly back the retrogression signal in some form. 

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Euro essentially throws the ridge from western Russia over to a Canadian ridge which merges.

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Doesn't seem to any warmth in sight at the moment.  However, October can still deliver warm days and models can change at relatively short notice, so for those wanting some Autumn warmth all hope is not lost!

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, hope springs eternal? Light winds, lowish pressure, plenty of moisture... Could the October Fog Index (which is as useful as any other index posted on here @lassie23) get off to a flyer!?:yahoo::oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It's up there with the OPI for accuracy lol October Pie Index

Edited by lassie23
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5 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well, hope springs eternal? Light winds, lowish pressure, plenty of moisture... Could the October Fog Index (which is as useful as any other index posted on here @lassie23) get off to a flyer!?:yahoo::oldlaugh:

  

I thought the theory of the October Fog leading to a cold winter was related to a big high pressure cell over the uk which ‘could’ migrate north or north east to provide blocking conditions for early winter?

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4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Doesn't seem to any warmth in sight at the moment.  However, October can still deliver warm days and models can change at relatively short notice, so for those wanting some Autumn warmth all hope is not lost!

Indeed, pleasantly warm days are possible until at least the middle of October. 20C+ is possible right up until the end of the month, particularly further south. I wouldn't rule out any more warmth just yet.

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For those of us still hoping for something that vaguely feels like summer during early October, there are a few warm charts on the GEFS 12z...BUT...the form horse 🐴 is for a generally very unsettled, autumnal rather cool / sometimes windy outlook although as we know, nothing is set in stone once we hit low res and even if we are looking 👀  at an unsettled outlook, which apparently we are, there is a signal for something more benign from around mid month from Exeter with fine days and foggy nights with a risk of overnight frosts.
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Edited by Jon Snow
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17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Christ are the models adding insult to injury tonight, ECM 12z T168, T240:

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Wellcome to the 6 months of hell!

No salvation from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean...the highs and lows associated with model watching..this is a low..lol😁😉

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1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Loving these proper autumn charts personally!

Fair enough, mate!  Personally I hate Autumn, particularly if it goes on for 6 months and we don’t get a winter, as has been the case in far too many recent years...hope different this year, too early to even guess...we will see...

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Fair enough, mate!  Personally I hate Autumn, particularly if it goes on for 6 months and we don’t get a winter, as has been the case in far too many recent years...hope different this year, too early to even guess...we will see...

I understand how you feel, except for me I hate the summer. So these kind of charts just look great to me after what felt like a never ending spring/summer. 

But I can agree with you on the winter aspect, really hoping we can break the rut of the last few years and finally see something that at least resembles winter.

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