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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Good evening! 😀 1st ever post! 1st of many I hope. Love this forum.   ECM: Tonight Matthew, I’m going to be... The GFS from yesterday!     A real tease, shame the OP only

Fitting macro scale ENSO patterns, (or any other macro scale drivers) to idealistic synoptic patterns is inevitably set to lead to departure in reality from such expectations.   The macro scale wind-f

ECM indicating a return to some settled weather end of next week however a few showers & the flow becoming Northerly so the potential for some frost developing- Nice & seasonal.

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Evening, the most noticeable  feature from the mean chart below is the dominance of  positive heights over the NH as we go in to the first week of October,especially over NW Russia with extension into the high Arctic. Looks like  trough domination aligning into NW Europe with a rather prolonged unsettled period for the British Isles with a colder than average sourced air mass.

c

gensnh-0-5-240.png

Edited by carinthian
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59 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And there we have all the 31 members now😉

graphe3_1000_311_142___.thumb.png.e48093b17d923794eeac9f7296be53f4.png

More fun cherry picking to come!

But the bit that catches my eye is the spikes on the rainfall between D7 and D12 - regular rainfall likely in that period, backed up by ECM tonight.

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Evening, the most noticeable  feature from the mean chart below is the dominance of  positive heights over the NH as we go in to the first week of October,especially over NW Russia with extension into the high Arctic. Looks like  trough domination aligning into NW Europe with a rather prolonged unsettled period for the British Isles with a colder than average sourced air mass.

c

gensnh-0-5-240.png

Yes, no real change in the overall pattern with the heights actually moving NW into the Arctic so we see the trough being squeezed fractionally to the SW - not a great help for the British Isles to be honest.

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A quick look at the start of October, only 7 days away now, and these three models all agree that we should expect an unsettled spell with low pressure dominating although they’re not completely in agreement about the depth and position of the main feature......

                               500s                                                          850s

ECM     D6E1BD39-DB25-4F95-91D8-0E202BC849F3.thumb.gif.76d19426fca86c5a6a1272fa8886e2dc.gif  6A1E717B-61C1-4857-BDBA-92C70A155D17.thumb.gif.f14ffa8559071f1bc04b562031a1297e.gif

GFS     B8152DBB-6551-42FB-AD24-C3AAF2C3630B.thumb.png.0553f0cc492047d3e1eac00add722d44.png  F2B90D7F-FF83-4520-88BA-8F0067C3D8AF.thumb.png.2283d2c49354a3be5ae15adbd74b5d0e.png

GEM   54A1E6D1-27A5-4585-A3CE-CDA40B41046B.thumb.png.8bd7a08370790065e1205d6c5050145d.png  3A2161E4-E48F-4204-8907-6219C44BFDA2.thumb.png.2bb38904eef3adda3f40c7778c322aac.png

This could still go either way - the low pressure system could weaken, or intensify (especially if the GFS gets its way!).  Will we have to endure some severe Autumn storms this year?  Too early to tell but I’m keeping a weather eye out.  👁

Edited by Sky Full
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31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

🤞🌞

F9371A0D-451D-4D6B-9284-BB502D244763.png


image.thumb.png.8d2c5cde25651104614b93ecc95ee0e8.png

Unlikely (at the moment it's a big outlier!), the first week of October isn't looking great. Hopeful for improvements into mid month!

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I think it’s fair to say that settled / anticyclonic charts are becoming harder to find (at the moment) but it’s much easier to at least find some warm, perhaps very warm SE’ly winds during early October...however, with strong heights to the east, North Atlantic lows tend to become stuck over and around the u k with nowhere else to go and are then reinforced by further lows so I would say that apart from an increasingly fine but cool weekend as a ridge builds in from the west, next week gradually becomes more unsettled again...but early October could see above average temperatures, especially across the s / se.

154395B0-8F8A-491E-803B-49F6140AD436.thumb.png.baa6d4754d9fec02175c4a38e1efd3f0.png6EF5CBA9-ED0B-46EE-AF99-6B5183A0D930.thumb.png.90bc01e0f0e05e8b538ac0fbbf894363.png7B84779D-36A2-44C6-BE9A-22257EFFB56C.thumb.png.fad01fafcc2904be730496ba0300c0a7.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Afternoon all 🙂

The quieter period in the hurricane season isn't going to do us any favours in the near term. We rely on the infusion of energy from these ex-tropical features to shake the pattern and to (ideally) build the Azores HP over the British Isles.

GFS FI charts (and outliers) notwithstanding, the pattern of strong heights over Eurasia wouldn't be a problem in and of itself but the orientation of the block toward Scandinavia and the Arctic forces the LP trough SE over NW Europe and the British Isles and keeps the Azores HP as an irrelevance to the far SW.

ECM1-240.GIF?24-12

The 06Z GFS OP offers a possible way out as the LP withdraws NW and re=aligns positively allowing the Azores HP to build back again toward Europe. That's the logical evolution - the other option is to have the trough move cleanly through NW Europe and allow the pattern to re-set behind though I note again the tendency for heights to build NW across Scandinavia and to our north which would re-align the pattern but keep us far from settled with the jet moving across or just to the south of the British Isles.

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What an amazing chart in contrasts. Negative phase in the extreme coming up- bulls eye -The British Isles. Probably means lots of rain and depressed temps for much of NW Europe.

C

EioZ2MqWkAANj2H.jpg

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A big change compared with what we've seen recently with a much more unsettled pattern for all, looks like its likely to stay until atleast the mid to latter part of the following week so for the next 12-14 days. The weekend looks mostly dry for most though. 🙂

Eastern parts of England especially East anglia looking to see very strong winds later tonight and tomorrow northerly winds gusting upto around 60-65mph along the coast particulary the east anglian coast.. 50-60mph possible for inland parts of east anglia for a time and 40-45mph for the rest of Eastern England. 

Aswell as this heavy rain probably develops across east anglia and Eastern areas later tonight likely lingering for most of the day tomorrow more than 20mm likely but a risk of upto 50-70mm accumulating in places. 

377674437_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_30(2).thumb.jpg.632183a3655ff9dc6bfc833dae172552.jpg

1333131213_EUROPE_PRMSL_30(1).thumb.jpg.42ed5dbd1432ebd102a9b9163f2c9151.jpg

That occlusion close to or over Eastern parts slowly moving away for saturday and not looking too bad for many for the weekend, perhaps a little wet weather for a short time for the far southwest from a disturbance other than that mostly dry but outbreaks of rain may move west back into Eastern England at times. Northerly winds slowly easing. 

Next week is unsettled especially from midweek, the jetstream becomes very strong later next week but takes a dive north to south with areas of low pressure possibly getting slow moving and cut off from the steering flow. 

EUROPE_JETSTREAM_156.thumb.jpg.82bde6faeab8cf4d716b2358717770f8.jpg

Its southern parts that will probably see the wettest and windiest weather later in the week. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_150.thumb.jpg.4fbb0403bdd730da7140fa95bafb8c69.jpg

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

What an amazing chart in contrasts. Negative phase in the extreme coming up- bulls eye -The British Isles. Probably means lots of rain and depressed temps for much of NW Europe.

C

EioZ2MqWkAANj2H.jpg

The blocking over the Urals might have interesting effects strat wise if it can persist..

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12 minutes ago, tinybill said:

long way  off    could  get interesting!!

gens-16-1-168.png

There's a number of small disturbances running around the mother low towards the end of the ECM run. One such depression results in 112mph gusts in the North Sea, which demonstrates the potential for explosive cyclogenesis.

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Very interesting Euro tonight tries to retrogress the upper high over western Russia. Although the immediate impact is to park the trough over the U.K. its the type of long term solution that can end up settling closer to us or go all the way to Greenland.

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Sorry but I don’t find wet & windy weather interesting which is the longer term trend from the ECM 12z etc..etc.....but I do find this interesting..deep FI range cfs!😁:cold:😉 ❄️ 

AA80F9A0-FE2B-4EB8-8533-FB4B83C2F9DB.thumb.png.11ddb00915e891bdf95f4032965fb5dd.png3B5C4298-1617-4462-A763-C1BC8B69CCA2.thumb.png.df1269f139d6b2b6cccc7df5d49e78ec.png653082FF-14FE-4393-950F-D1F041728055.thumb.png.2d935a9ef6dcbd446a71ff87430521af.png84FAA7EE-B61E-4BFF-952E-80BD610173BA.thumb.png.004c1665980cac402c439cd25a91d865.png


 

Nice one Jon.

Charts like that gave me near a metre of snow in March 2013. 

I would settle for 50cm on the night of the 24th December. 

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