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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A step-change in the feel of things takes place through late September, as we descend into Autumn more fully and cross the natural divide. Through most of September there is a tug of war a pull and push between summer and autumn, by October, the release into autumn is finally kicked, any dry settled sunny weather even if temps get into the 20s has a definitively feel about it. The same step change takes place in late March.

In overall feel the most major step-change of the year takes place when the clocks go back, far more marked a change than when the clocks go forward. 

And part of that of course, is the clocks go back end October when Autumn is well in control, but with an asymmetry that baffles me, the clocks go forward end March, when most years spring has already sprung. 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

And part of that of course, is the clocks go back end October when Autumn is well in control, but with an asymmetry that baffles me, the clocks go forward end March, when most years spring has already sprung. 

Yes if the clocks went back say end of September wouldn't have quite the same immediate effect, psychologically a change from it getting dark at 6pm to the next day going dark at 4.45, is very profound.

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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A step-change in the feel of things takes place through late September, as we descend into Autumn more fully and cross the natural seasonal divide. Through most of September there is a tug of war a pull and push between summer and autumn, by October, the release into autumn is finally kicked, any dry settled sunny weather even if temps get into the 20s has a definitively different feel about it. Indeed statistically we see the most marked temp differential between two adjacent months in September and October. The same step change takes place in late March. There are therefore two step changes in the autumn season, whereas the spring season feels has perhaps just the one in late March, followed thereafter by a propelled movement through the splendour of spring, rushing headfast into summer.

In overall feel the most major step-change of the year takes place when the clocks go back, far more marked a change than when the clocks go forward. Key factor loss of daylight.

I think late August Is the first hint of autumn, with the transition between summer and proper autumn between mid August to mid September. Now moving into late Septemner, autumn is starting to become fully established.

October is fully autumn, but I feel but the time the clocks go back, it really seems like winter is taking hold, mainly due to the darkness. Even when the weather is mild late October just feels really bleak. The long dark days remain with us until late February, before things start to change towards spring again.

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GFS 18Z definitely had more than 10 pints at the pub this evening! 🍺 A very potent North-Westerly to Northerly it is showing for 27th September. Scotland, particularly during the morning, would probably be greeted with a few sleet and snow showers with the -5*C 850 hPa temperature line spilling over the country at times during that day. If this has any chance of verifying, up North, it could feel like Snowtember! (Or Sleetember!)
 

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In the closer range, it looks like the settled and fine conditions will continue over this weekend. Though Low Pressure sitting to the South of the UK could bring along the odd shower or two at times over Southern areas. 
 

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Similar on Monday, though may cloud over across the far North as pressure starts to fall towards the North and North-West of the UK.

46F99C3D-D0C1-460D-8C2A-403A04F40646.thumb.png.224c68de5428fcfe631463d6de44ab59.png

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Removing extra chart at bottom

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19 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Well, it's a good job this morning's GFS is shoving the -4'c/-5'c 850s down as far as Oxford later this month.

Extraordinary cold northerly considering how early in the season it is, and how warm the planet is atm!!

snow3.png

Sorry for the very late post but it should be noted the GFS in particular has a cold bias as it goes further into the forecast but there is signs we may see a chilly northerly flow at some point. Whether uppers go that low ill have me doubts mind. 

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