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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

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18 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Well those charts above are pretty much the "polar opposite" of what we have right now...

Can we achieve surely the only ever year with 90F recorded in 4 separate months? Tomorrow is the big chance. AROME going for 31C, ARPEGE 32C but in Kent rather than London, so may suffer for lack of reporting stations. If only Gravesend was still running!

My car which is the most accurate ive ever known- matches my home weather station- it showed 32c today in Gravesend! So annoying we have no official data here anymore. It felt really humid also, I also feel the town I moved from- Dartford is even hotter than Gravesend as the car thermometer often shows higher temps here as well as parts of SE London and Dartford town centre is in a valley, and set back further from the river.20200915_153914.thumb.jpg.3b19dacf1f9bda5933316a799ae2337f.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Truly excellent Tamara. Love reading your analysis.

 

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Do not adjust your sets, this is indeed snaw on the Gfs 12z op bringing a few hours of winter to parts of Scotland! 🥶😉 ❄️ 
E6A52D07-926B-40D3-B749-6545B5361134.thumb.png.d716546d387734ce21c8374a141de5da.pngA8A60921-F6EF-4D64-A1CA-D14F98683280.thumb.png.2743cd8f45437b78cfc4125722eaaefc.pngADCAF12B-3FE9-49D1-8CA5-FD71E5B4A06C.thumb.png.81d06534ce273eeead173276668a78a8.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Do not adjust your sets, this is indeed snaw on the Gfs 12z op bringing a few hours of winter to parts of Scotland! 🥶😉 ❄️ 
E6A52D07-926B-40D3-B749-6545B5361134.thumb.png.d716546d387734ce21c8374a141de5da.pngA8A60921-F6EF-4D64-A1CA-D14F98683280.thumb.png.2743cd8f45437b78cfc4125722eaaefc.pngADCAF12B-3FE9-49D1-8CA5-FD71E5B4A06C.thumb.png.81d06534ce273eeead173276668a78a8.png

And i can see why Karl😁

graphe3_1000___-4.05660377358_56.963562753_.thumb.png.e2cc6d93303fe657527a3f193c62927f.png

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And i can see why Karl😁

graphe3_1000___-4.05660377358_56.963562753_.thumb.png.e2cc6d93303fe657527a3f193c62927f.png

Aye, so can I... It's called an 'Equinoctial Kick in The Goolies'!:crazy:

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Both the op and control have quiet a blower at day ten across the NW thanks to an ex-Hurricane:help:

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.03bda6bfad60b52710e9b47e862790c0.pnggens-0-1-240.thumb.png.2f0446934e684618ca16b4e19ab31aea.png

a few other ens have it too but timings are different,one to watch.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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24 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Do not adjust your sets, this is indeed snaw on the Gfs 12z op bringing a few hours of winter to parts of Scotland! 🥶😉 ❄️ 
E6A52D07-926B-40D3-B749-6545B5361134.thumb.png.d716546d387734ce21c8374a141de5da.pngA8A60921-F6EF-4D64-A1CA-D14F98683280.thumb.png.2743cd8f45437b78cfc4125722eaaefc.pngADCAF12B-3FE9-49D1-8CA5-FD71E5B4A06C.thumb.png.81d06534ce273eeead173276668a78a8.png

Blimey. That'll do for me. Bread and milk buy bread and milk..😂😂😂

Edited by Mair Snaw
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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope GFS 12Z is wrong! my least favourite weather

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

I'm with you on that one, I can't stand polar maritime air- it really is the worst air mass. Unfortunately we are always vulnerable to it in this country. I really see no positives in that type of weather whatsoever.

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Big difference between the North Americans models this evening at 240t. You could not make this up really. Possibly both going down the wrong path. Who knows, think hurricane season starting to play silly games with the longer term outputs on display !

C

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Give me a polar maritime airmass any day over a tropical maritime one, the latter whatever the time of year brings low cloud shrouding everything drizzle or rain and a general dankness, and always mild. Polar maritime airmasses bring sunshine shower type weather, often very clear sparkling air, bracing weather. Downside in summer is cool weather, in winter, can bring a mix of rain, hail, sleet and snow, if cold enough and with troughs in the flow more organised snow. Very seasonal.

I think you are generalising a lot there- we were very much in tropical maritime air here on Sunday and it was sunny basically the whole day. Over the last couple of years I could come up with a whole list of days with polar maritime air that produced constant cloud and cold rain. It is without doubt the worst air mass in the summer months if you want warm, dry weather.

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3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think you are generalising a lot there- we were very much in tropical maritime air here on Sunday and it was sunny basically the whole day. Over the last couple of years I could come up with a whole list of days with polar maritime air that produced constant cloud and cold rain. It is without doubt the worst air mass in the summer months if you want warm, dry weather.

Should have caveated the post - I was speaking in respect to weather here in the Lake District, there is often a divide between rest of NW and Cumbria under SW airstreams, alas we were plagued all day by low cloud and drizzle on Sunday, there is nothing to shelter against under a SW airstream, Cumbria sticks out into the Irish Sea and there is a long sea track, conversely southern parts of NW are sheltered more so by a landmass inbetween (Wales). In NW airstreams the opposite occurs to an extent, we have SW Scotland to our NW, southern parts of NW have the Irish Sea.

Edited by damianslaw

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11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Should have caveated the post - I was speaking in respect to weather here in the Lake District, there is often a divide between rest of NW and Cumbria under SW airstreams, alas we were plagued all day by low cloud and drizzle on Sunday, there is nothing to shelter against under a SW airstream, Cumbria sticks out into the Irish Sea and there is a long sea track, conversely southern parts of NW are sheltered more so by a landmass inbetween (Wales). In NW airstreams the opposite occurs to an extent, we have SW Scotland to our NW, southern parts of NW have the Irish Sea.

To be even more exact, the NW was under a southwesterly while the SE was more a southeasterly, so no Tm air down there.

I generally agree, outside of summer, a Pm airstream is far superior without a doubt. In summer however the difference is just whether you want your cloud served cool or mild here in the West Country. We don’t often get the wet weather that the NW does in southwesterlies but also often miss the most of the convective weather that places further east do in northwesterlies.

Best make the most of the largely lovely weather for the rest of this week. Perhaps something a little less clement by Sunday in the south, whether in the form of rain or just much more cloud.

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24 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think you are generalising a lot there- we were very much in tropical maritime air here on Sunday and it was sunny basically the whole day. Over the last couple of years I could come up with a whole list of days with polar maritime air that produced constant cloud and cold rain. It is without doubt the worst air mass in the summer months if you want warm, dry weather.

Worst airmass here all months of the year, often very wet through the Cheshire Gap, just horrid feeling weather

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Euro tonight is somewhat unsettled by day 7 and cooler however as ever low confidence with tropical systems in the frey.

spacer.png

Edited by summer blizzard
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Looking at the Gfs 0z op the rinse and repeat warm ups continue, there’s even a plume at the end of Sept / start of Oct...quite astonishing if this verifies..speaking of warm ups, the s / se becomes very warm (locally hot) again next mon / tues...so, although it’s autumn now, the summer-like spells MAY keep on coming!?😁😜☀️🔥

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Morning all,

I mentioned yesterday that overall global patterns still look promising for the UK (they still do for now), but that tropical activity was always the elephant in the room. It could be that this elephant works against us into the back end of next week - all thanks to ex major hurricane Teddy, which is set to strengthen into a major cat 3 storm by tomorrow morning:

image.thumb.png.f7f91a469546e702c5d50c242a920c46.png

This is then forecast to track up the eastern seaboard, before being scooped up by the jet stream, and potentially reinvigorating into a deep low affecting parts of the UK:

image.thumb.png.2059a23836b9e108871e295608abcf88.pngimage.thumb.png.ffc8e7bfbed020fc403594fd8eabc631.pngimage.thumb.png.6552a0cbe9f26307db183566a0f9a001.pngimage.thumb.png.ff7001ad0e96c502316d633938a4f70e.pngimage.thumb.png.ce34ea4c5c4fb3942c55b4a9d683a462.png

This is always a problem at this time of year - whereas a typhoon in the Pacific helped set up the last few days warmth, Atlantic storms could show us the other side of the coin.

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500 mb update

Ec-gfs both show some element of troughing in the uk area, ec the most with gfs showing continuing ridging influence e of uk, ec has slight contour ridging e of n America

Noaa takes the general rounded trough over the eastern atlantic/uk area idea with an overall w’ly across n America and into this broad trough

Obviously none of them indicate any tropical storm signal, that will be shown on the synoptic outputs with one in the post from mb illustrating what can happen as any get caught up in the main jet flow.

So goodbye to our late summer the areas away from the nw have enjoyed. Fairly changeable seems the brief description with just an odd day in a temporary surface ridge. Temperatures mainly around average I would think.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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11 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

And if the CFS keeps showing them,then i will keep on posting them,....

another stonker but this time in Feb😍

cfsnh-3-2-2021.thumb.png.bc6dacee0b9eed8afd10225513c06587.png

Talking of Feb,where is @feb1991blizzard !!!🤔

Of all the charts I have seen posted recently, this one jarrs the most. Cant see this for Feb at all. But if it happens, I'll dance.......

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24 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Of all the charts I have seen posted recently, this one jarrs the most. Cant see this for Feb at all. But if it happens, I'll dance.......

Which is funny because in a normal winter, a chart like that is more likely in Feb than the other two months. Alas La Niña can turn winter back to front. The CFS January charts have really got my attention over the last few weeks. A bitterly cold heart of winter would be classic!

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Which is funny because in a normal winter, a chart like that is more likely in Feb than the other two months. Alas La Niña can turn winter back to front. The CFS January charts have really got my attention over the last few weeks. A bitterly cold heart of winter would be classic!

It certainly would. We seem to keep missing cold spells in the true heart of winter when the days are really short. Please! This year?!

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