Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Frosty.]

I admit this is a bit out of date but I just love different shades of blue when it comes to T850’s (uppers)!....perhaps the early part of winter will be interesting from a cold perspective if the cfs is on to something rather than just on something?

[Tim Bland]

Hi there...where are you off to next

[Methuselah]

I can hardly contain my excitement!

   

[KTtom]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi there...where are you off to next

Europe!!

[Methuselah]

And with the GFS 12Z at T+384, I think I'll pop to B&M and buy me a small fan-heater... Hopefully, I'll run into Miss Tiggywinkle while I'm at it. And maybe get the gen on the upcoming winter!

    

Edited November 7, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

Another set of dull as dishwater 12z runs so far. Come back tomorrow and see if anything has changed.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi there...where are you off to next

P 25 says the UK

and P 10 has that phantom easterly

plus there is some interesting 12z ens in there too.

 

[mb018538]

Ensembles staying well above average still. A few stray colder runs, but nothing more than that at the moment.

[Frosty.]

A coldie in the u k needs a sense of humour, after all we are not lucky enough to be in Canada or Finland for example..actually, the GEFS 12z doesn’t turn out too be a complete mild fest as these charts would suggest!?...I will keep looking for some major cold (don’t laugh!)...it’s still autumn for another 3 weeks and a bit!

[Tim Bland]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ensembles staying well above average still. A few stray colder runs, but nothing more than that at the moment.

Snow row up to an awesome ... 1

[Don]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

A coldie in the u k needs a sense of humour, after all we are not lucky enough to be in Canada or Finland for example..actually, the GEFS 12z doesn’t turn out too be a complete mild fest as these charts would suggest!?...I will keep looking for some major cold (don’t laugh!)...it’s still autumn for another 3 weeks and a bit!

A coldie in the UK needs to emigrate lol!   Grim charts if you want cold but at least it's still autumn as you pointed out

[Froze were the Days]

This month (looking at the latest 12z and others) looks very reminiscent of December 2015 with the jet dipping south eastwards in the Atlantic only to buckle northwards to our west leaving us in constantly in mild/warm air...as long as we stay dry.

Edited November 7, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[swfc]

Gfs pretty consistent today even in fi. 18 z continues this, rank but consistently so

[Kentspur]

35dayer from GEFS suite is promising for more seasonal temps down the line but a lot can change before now and early December

[IDO]

Today's D10 charts on the ECM and GFS very similar in synoptic:

This a repeating pattern from earlier this month that never quite married up to what we got:

Nov 1 chart from ECM for Nov 5 and Nov 11:

Current chart for Nov 11:

So this morning's charts although promising a last hurrah for Summer are relying on the algorithms working out that cut-off upper-low again? I will be interested to see how the models handle it on this occasion. If there is a ghost in the machine, where even at 5-day it can be wrong, then noteworthy for our sanity going forward.

FWIW this morning's 0z from the GFS went on to...

   

 

[NewEra21]

The only crumb of comfort this morning is that the GFS op 850s wise was very much on the milder side of the esembles later on.

Edited November 8, 2020 by NewEra21

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+384... I'll accept it.

    

Edited November 8, 2020 by Mapantz
Political references

[swfc]

Looking or trying to be positive can this upcoming winter be any worse than last year. I'd suspect not so. Looking very stagnent at the moment but hope springs eternel. So il now go and store my industrial box of straws in advance for the coming  days

[mushymanrob]

On 03/11/2020 at 11:53, LRD said:

A quick question over those charts. Everytime I look at them those green contour lines seem, to me anyway, showing the exact same thing whether in summer or winter. Probably the mind playing tricks but what will it take for them to show a NE'ly

[b]What I don't understand about them is that they show a high anomaly which, in that chart you've posted, would suggest a Southerly or Se'ly rather than a SW'ly and that contradicts the green contour lines which are in a seemingly permanent SW'ly[/b]

Honest question - I'm not trying to dismiss that model just trying to understand them more

I think i can explain this a bit better now.

These two fax charts for today and tuesday demonstrate the BIB.

The green contour lines then showed a gentle southwesterly, and this is borne out on the current fax charts which illustrates the Northeastward progression of the messy shallow lows and attendant fronts off Biscay.

We dont get much of a Southerly or Southeasterly because whilst high pressure is centred to our East/northeast, it also ridges southward so theres little continental element, or not strong.

These charts IMHO are completely in line with what the NOAA charts were predicting.

Edit...oh you dont do a BIB now?

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by mushymanrob

[swfc]

Subtle changes on the gfs 6z.pressure to the north west much slacker and weaker at 144 hour mark

Edited November 8, 2020 by swfc

[swfc]

Not quite sure what's happening on the 6z in fi?? The jet sends a low and a nw wind to the canaries and Greece gets an easterly very odd charts 

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not quite sure what's happening on the 6z in fi?? The jet sends a low and a nw wind to the canaries and Greece gets an easterly very odd charts 

Truth be told there still isn’t anything to whet the appetite in any of the output yet. There’s still a chance it turns colder in the last week of November, but equally we still have ensemble members showing the mild weather continuing. It’ll probably take a few more days to sort out, early to mid next week looks complicated with a possible split flow developing.

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, swfc said:

and Greece gets an easterly very odd charts 

Not really surprising that Greece gets an icy cold easterly while the u k stays mild..par for the course really!

[Methuselah]

Holy stonk! If this carries on for much longer, I'll start watching reruns of Coronation Street!

    

I always did have a 'thing' for Ena Sharples!

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

Subtle changes on the gfs 6z.pressure to the north west much slacker and weaker at 144 hour mark

Aye... extremely subtle: mostly dry and mild to dry and mostly mild!