Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

For years now I keep alluding to look east as much as west.Where are now these ramps about EC blocked anomalies? The path where this month is going is exactly the same as last two novembers if you look at anomalies. This Sceuro/western Russia high is ultimate killer.Doesnt offer any strat pertuberations either despite some people claiming this Euro high is good long term,no its not!

You say that but didn't we have a SSW in both of those years? We got unlucky that we didn't see European cold from them?

I personally think you're being very pessimistic this time around...unduly so. Time, as ever, will tell.

Edited November 7, 2020 by CreweCold

[jules216]

21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You say that but didn't we have a SSW in both of those years? We got unlucky that we didn't see European cold from them?

I personally think you're being very pessimistic this time around...unduly so. Time, as ever, will tell.

There is actualy a good correlation between snowless November and subsequent mild winter here in my country. This will be first La Nina without any meaningful cold snap in november.2017,2016,2011,2010,2007,1999,1998,2005,1995,1988,1983 all had cold spells yet this one is just a copy of last two which were weak El Nino/neurtal. What it tells me is that regardles of these fancy Nina analogs the european climate in winter season has establiahed a certain pattern. And of course time will tell and of course I hope my presumptions are wrong

 

[mulzy]

Still way too early thinking about Winter to be honest.  Overnight models continue the Sceuro / Euro blocking theme. A drier than average week ahead in the UK and fairly mild too - seems rather cloudy but hopefully some sun will appear tine to time.  All in all, not too bad for early/mid November.

Edited November 7, 2020 by mulzy

[Methuselah]

8 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

How are you able to tell that this particular set up could lead to freezing fog ? I have an interest in freezing fog as a weather phenomenon but can never seem to get clear answers as to why certain synoptic conditions produce freezing fog as opposed to just a clear night of very low minima. People tell me fog is produced by heat radiating into a clear sky at night, but if that were the case, fog would occur every clear night in winter! Which it doesn't. I know this is probably the wrong thread to ask but seeing as though you mentioned something specific in this chart that would lead specifically to freezing fog rather than just a freezing cold clear night - what is it exactly? 

Thanks 

Just the slack pressure gradient over England and Wales, mate... But, at Day 16, almost nothing ever verifies anyway. I was being sarcastic!

Anywho, back to here-and-now: my heating has broken!

    

But never fear, the Goofus is here...at T+249:

    

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by General Cluster

[mb018538]

ECM 00z day 10 - southerly reload number 757494735251749 of November 2020

[Djdazzle]

Far too early to write winter off, but I’m expecting nothing majorly cold - simply because that’s by far the more likely option. Any wintry spells should be seen as a bonus.

At least we are experiencing some cold, crisp, misty mornings.

[Earthshine]

Charts looking very warm for the time of year.

Edited November 7, 2020 by Earthshine

[sheikhy]

Mild and dry for the next 2 weeks it is then!!at least its dry so i take that for now!!ecm mean has us in a southerly flow all the way till the end!!

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Mild and dry for the next 2 weeks it is then!!at least its dry so i take that for now!!ecm mean has us in a southerly flow all the way till the end!!

Not completely dry, below average is more accurate? There are spells of showers and bands of light rain expected, mainly in western districts.

Meanwhile, the anomaly charts have been pretty much spot on again, a light south/southwesterly, some action in the form of shallow trough bringing showery rain , and the outlook remains pretty much the same for the next two weeks. High pressure close to our southeast, a slack upper southwesterly over most of the country, stronger in the northwest.  More mild, quiet, mainly dry, misty, murky, benign , conditions with a few brighter spells.

 

[Atmogenic]

I don't get the complaining really, yes it's not going to snow but it's also not going to be miserable and wet which is good. For me I'm fine with this high pressure to stay as it makes beautiful days and not have to worry about whenever I need to bring an umbrella or not. 

[ianmm94]

21 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slightly better gfs 6z at the 132 hr mark. Slack easterly and better aligned. Probably nothing major but it's there 

easterly? I think you're reading the chart wrong

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, ianmm94 said:

easterly? I think you're reading the chart wrong

Sorry slack ssw winds

Edited November 7, 2020 by swfc

[Methuselah]

14 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Phew.....I'm glad we're not clutching at straws!

Too late for that, methinks! 

Aaarrrgh!      

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Too late for that, methinks! 

Aaarrrgh!      

Yes the 6z is pretty disgusting in fi

[Premiere Neige]

10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Too late for that, methinks! 

Aaarrrgh!      

Let's not give up just yet. The met office are still banging the drum for a change to colder weather as we go into December....

[bluearmy]

Whilst the outlook looks pretty benign wrt to any onset of wintry conditions, there are some possible routes to cold beginning to show themselves in week 2 hemispherically 

[Frosty.]

Just to be clear, I am a coldie..no really, I am!..but there’s nothing cold on the horizon, but, that’s ok cos it’s still autumn!...anyway, enough waffle already!..the Ecm 0z ensemble mean suggests we are heading towards a NW / SE split longer term...I’m not concerned at this point, I will only become concerned if we are still stuck in this pattern in December but I don’t think we will be..chin up coldies, the upcoming winter can’t be worse than the last one..surely?!!!!

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Let's not give up just yet. The met office are still banging the drum for a change to colder weather as we go into December....

Oh, I never give up, PN... I can still recall the 21st-22nd November, 1978, when much colder NW'erlies blew away months of mildness:

    

Never say never!?

Edited November 7, 2020 by General Cluster

[Day 10]

10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Oh, I never give up, PN... I can still recall the 21st-22nd November, 1978, when much colder NW'erlies blew away months of mildness:

    

Never say never!?

Exactly, what a flip!

La la land and subject to a million options, but sign of a change??? And look at the date still only November 23rd, Winter not even in view yet.

[Tim Bland]

Indeed. Some straws to clutch in FI perhaps? That cold air is spilling a long way south so north western areas especially with elevation would be seeing wintry precipitation not long after. Also signs of warmer air over the western states which could slow the jet and create a ridge. Remember it’s still early November...

[SMU]

More ensembles trending colder into post day 10 as the continent cools quickly to the east.

Debilt T2ms also indicative of this trend..

[Zak M]

Could there be signs of cold weather to come in the second half of November, if the GFS p9 was to be believed? I wouldn't rule out a couple of cold shots in a few weeks time...

   

It also has a black hole located in Scandi.

Edited November 7, 2020 by Zak M

[Catacol]

7 hours ago, jules216 said:

This Sceuro/western Russia high is ultimate killer.Doesnt offer any strat pertuberations either despite some people claiming this Euro high is good long term,no its not!

 

No. Not the case. Wave 2 perturbation setup here

 

Full article here. 

Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices | Journal of Climate | American Meteorological Society

JOURNALS.AMETSOC.ORG

People may not like the look of the pattern, but bigger picture thinking is required. There is no point promising cold weather in the U.K. because it goes against climatological norms and is notoriously difficult to predict (huge ocean to the west, continental land mass to the east....stuck in the middle  blah blah) but we need to know the dice roll we are looking for (1 winter in 5 I’ve come to accept) and look for signs of the dice loading in favour. Doesn’t mean it will roll as desired, but increases the chances.

The current tropospheric forecast and pattern is a decent match for that Sceuro high / Aleutian low combo for vortex stress. ECM for next Saturday - near perfect.

..and this basic shape looks to be a November default. The longer it lasts the greater the chances of helping the pattern further down the line. Who wants perfect synoptics in early to mid Nov compared to mid Dec? Cold hunters would take mid Dec anytime. And a pattern that might produce tropospheric feedbacks from a tropospheric led attack on the vortex can be one of the best. See Feb/Mar 2018.

Let this November output roll. It isn’t bad unless cold tomorrow is what you want. The bigger concern is evolving shape of Niña and a slight sense that it is turning more central than east based, statistically not what we ideally want. Punters seem to be generally settling on a “mixed” Niña profile....and the sample size is very small for this kind of setup. Add on vastly reduced ice in the arctic and I’d suggest there is no matching sample and so we are in virgin territory. Who knows where it will lead....

...but for now: the current hemispheric pattern is not “bad” at all. The Niña base state should be looking to reassert by end of month and then we see where we go. Opportunities for high lat blocking in December are definitely there. I’m tempted to suggest the December dice are loaded 4 out of 6 in favour of a blocked pattern that might draw in air from a cold source. That’s not a promise....but it is grounds for optimism. And if the vortex gets more stress from tropospheric led waves then maybe we can get one of those 50% probability split vortex SSWs later in the season.  

 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Catacol

[Frosty.]

Oh my, I feel faint..there is a chance of snaw in late November according to the GEFS 6z!  

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Jon Snow

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

No. Not the case. Wave 2 perturbation setup here

 

Full article here. 

Tropospheric Precursors of Anomalous Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortices | Journal of Climate | American Meteorological Society

JOURNALS.AMETSOC.ORG

People may not like the look of the pattern, but bigger picture thinking is required. There is no point promising cold weather in the U.K. because it goes against climatological norms and is notoriously difficult to predict (huge ocean to the west, continental land mass to the east....stuck in the middle  blah blah) but we need to know the dice roll we are looking for (1 winter in 5 I’ve come to accept) and look for signs of the dice loading in favour. Doesn’t mean it will roll as desired, but increases the chances.

The current tropospheric forecast and pattern is a decent match for that Sceuro high / Aleutian low combo for vortex stress. ECM for next Saturday - near perfect.

..and this basic shape looks to be a November default. The longer it lasts the greater the chances of helping the pattern further down the line. Who wants perfect synoptics in early to mid Nov compared to mid Dec? Cold hunters would take mid Dec anytime. And a pattern that might produce tropospheric feedbacks from a tropospheric led attack on the vortex can be one of the best. See Feb/Mar 2018.

Let this November output roll. It isn’t bad unless cold tomorrow is what you want. The bigger concern is evolving shape of Niña and a slight sense that it is turning more central than east based, statistically not what we ideally want. Punters seem to be generally settling on a “mixed” Niña profile....and the sample size is very small for this kind of setup. Add on vastly reduced ice in the arctic and I’d suggest there is no matching sample and so we are in virgin territory. Who knows where it will lead....

...but for now: the current hemispheric pattern is not “bad” at all. The Niña base state should be looking to reassert by end of month and then we see where we go. Opportunities for high lat blocking in December are definitely there. I’m tempted to suggest the December dice are loaded 4 out of 6 in favour of a blocked pattern that might draw in air from a cold source. That’s not a promise....but it is grounds for optimism. And if the vortex gets more stress from tropospheric led waves then maybe we can get one of those 50% probability split vortex SSWs later in the season.  

 

 

 

 I am going to adopt positive attitude going forward and there is at least this gfs extended which trended cold for my location