Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[sheikhy]

Yup pretty boring runs last couple of days!!seem to have gone backwards!!hey at least their wont be as much rain.....i think

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+384... all starting to look very, very, very familiar?

    

So familiar, in fact, I think I'll go back to bed!

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

All in line with what the vast majority of nwp and Meto outlook has been suggesting.

Well a number on here and the ec seasonals a couple of weeks back were pointing to an 'interesting' November with positive MSLP towards Greenland/Iceland...just a reminder

[mb018538]

22 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well a number on here and the ec seasonals a couple of weeks back were pointing to an 'interesting' November with positive MSLP towards Greenland/Iceland...just a reminder

Absolutely - a lot of people (myself included) favoured a cool or colder than normal November with a fair amount of northern blocking and cooler weather showing up in the output at the end of October. Just look at this ECM day 10 chart from the 12z on the 31st October. Loaded with cold potential, big -NAO pattern:




Now look what is actually going to transpire:



A lot of this is due to the MJO passage and tropical activity, and the models not sequencing the movement of the ridges/troughs accurately towards the end of the month. We've just ended up in a pattern that would have been beautiful in the middle of summer. but is very uneventful in early to mid November.

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Absolutely - a lot of people (myself included) favoured a cool or colder than normal November with a fair amount of northern blocking and cooler weather showing up in the output at the end of October. Just look at this ECM day 10 chart from the 12z on the 31st October. Loaded with cold potential, big -NAO pattern:




Now look what is actually going to transpire:



A lot of this is due to the MJO passage and tropical activity, and the models not sequencing the movement of the ridges/troughs accurately towards the end of the month. We've just ended up in a pattern that would have been beautiful in the middle of summer. but is very uneventful in early to mid November.

And, even more is down to good old wishful thinking?

[feb1991blizzard]

Not looking good now i am afraid.

[Methuselah]

Well, apart from the immortal words of Satchmo, words fail me... my oh my, what a steaming pile of crap. GFS 06Z at T+384!

    

[Chesil View]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well a number on here and the ec seasonals a couple of weeks back were pointing to an 'interesting' November with positive MSLP towards Greenland/Iceland...just a reminder

I think most of those were suggesting later in November.

[Frosty.]

For anyone hoping for a pleasant / anticyclonic late autumn ( second half / last third of November )?..this, from the GEFS 6z...is for you!!  

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Jon Snow

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, apart from the immortal words of Satchmo, words fail me... my oh my, what a steaming pile of crap. GFS 06Z at T+384!

    

Best get used to it. If the OFI is anything to go by, no cold scenario will actually materialize this winter. Strangely my nuts predicted a cold winter, but the OFI says no, do i trust my nuts or the OFI. By nuts I mean the hazelnut tree btw lol

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Best get used to it. If the OFI is anything to go by, no cold scenario will actually materialize this winter. Strangely my nuts predicted a cold winter, but the OFI says no, do i trust my nuts or the OFI. By nuts I mean the hazelnut tree btw lol

As in... 'Nuts, whole hazelnuts; Cadbury's take 'em and they cover them in chocolate'? Maybe not!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

As in... 'Nuts, whole hazelnuts; Cadbury's take 'em and they cover them in chocolate'? Maybe not!

Yes exactly hazel nuts, I noticed that the later the hazel nuts are ready the colder the winter. Last few winters they are done by August, this year it was September, so maybe ......... But the October Fog Index was zero lol

[Methuselah]

36 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yes exactly hazel nuts, I noticed that the later the hazel nuts are ready the colder the winter. Last few winters they are done by August, this year it was September, so maybe ......... But the October Fog Index was zero lol

Well, I noticed oodles of berries, on a holly tree, yesterday... And we all know what that means, don't we... weeks and weeks of neverending mild mush?!

[Tim Bland]

You know the models are bad when there’s a page of posts about berries, nuts and various indexes rather than any models I saw a flock of sea gulls the other day if that helps

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

You know the models are bad when there’s a page of posts about berries, nuts and various indexes rather than any models I saw a flock of sea gulls the other day if that helps

Grief don't start on about seagulls!

 

[SMU]

Nothing of remote interest from the models now. The weather consigned to the rubbish bin to at least the 16th. oh well. The wait continues...

[northwestsnow]

Yep..agreed Steve...

The hopes of blocking establishing to our North has all but evaporated over the last 48 hours...

Euro High and +NAO for the next few weeks looks favourite...

[LRD]

Heatwave...!!!!!

No hyperbole here but I wonder if date records for warmth could go. Fog could be an issue I guess

[mb018538]

If anything, some of the model runs are having a go at reinforcing the southerly flow rather than breaking it down into anything. If cold is your thing, I’d come back in a fortnight. 

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nothing of remote interest from the models now. The weather consigned to the rubbish bin to at least the 16th. oh well. The wait continues...

Frankly, I don’t mind waiting until winter, it’s still autumn for another 3.5 weeks and in any case..it saves on heating bills and helps the daffodils!!!!! ...these charts from the Gfs 12z op..let’s just say, thank god it’s still only November and not eating into winter!

Edited November 5, 2020 by Jon Snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

Heatwave...!!!!!

No hyperbole here but I wonder if date records for warmth could go. Fog could be an issue I guess

doubt that warmth records? fog aye, but will likely stay below 10 degrees max, I'd have thought

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

doubt that warmth records? fog aye, but will likely stay below 10 degrees max, I'd have thought

Impossible to say from that chart.  Depends how warm the airmass is under the region of high pressure.  

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Impossible to say from that chart.  Depends how warm the airmass is under the region of high pressure.  

Yep, agreed

All hypothetical at that range anyway. But the trend is clear. We're heading for a warm month (up to around the 15th at least) I'd suggest

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

You know the models are bad when there’s a page of posts about berries, nuts and various indexes rather than any models I saw a flock of sea gulls the other day if that helps

Flock of sea gulls....how so atm...WISHING...great hit

[Penrith Snow]

 Christ, glad I decided to spend lockdown in Spain instead of returning to the UK, those charts from all models are horrendous! They literally couldn't be worse, at least here in Spain under the Azores ridge temperatures will remain above average with plenty of autumn sunshine.

To think I considered coming back with promise of early snowfalls  

I will end on a positive note however, November 1978 had very similar synoptics with long fetch south westerlies right up to the 21st when a marked cold front introduced a cold northwesterly, the rest as they say is history.  

Andy