Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s a bit on the edge - we’re quite close to the high and low boundaries. A shift either way could mean continued very mild, or pretty cold with easterly winds setting in. I’d say the milder outcome is favoured at the moment, but certainly one to watch!

Always need a bit of luck for things to fall in the right place but...............

 

If there is away to turn off email notifications could someone PM me please? Don’t respond in this thread as it will be annoying for others. TIA

Edited November 4, 2020 by That ECM

[Anthony Burden]

Met office 144 shows the high pressure to our north east very close to having some 

influence on are weather,just right position needed not impossible to draw colder 

Temperatures to our shores.

[Frosty.]

I’ve just placed an order for P20 / GEFS 12z from Amazon..should arrive on the 19th all being well!!!!  ...same day as my PS5

 

[damianslaw]

Enough influence from the high to the NE to prevent a long fetch SW airstream at least, more of a southerly then SE airflow, were this Dec-March when continent was colder, todays latest runs would be suggesting a much colder outlook. Alas no cold pooling to our SE just yet..

[mb018538]

ECM is a bad run, high pressure pushed away allowing a return of the Atlantic, and a continuation of the mild conditions.

[SLEETY]

lots of uk cold and Europe cold spells spells have developed from the situation that the models are showing with warm Southerlies developing into weekend and beyond,initally.Check the archives too see how much colder weather arrived from the East later.

Edited November 4, 2020 by SLEETY

[Zak M]

If only it was July!

[stodge]

Evening all

The tenor of above posts doesn't really need me to put up the T+240 NH profiles but I will anyway:

That's ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from 12Z

Hopes of the PV decamping to Siberia have now been put on the back burner and it's very much the same old story. The strong storm moving across the Pole causes the HP to sink south and kills off any prospect of advection of colder air from the east and the Atlantic takes over. GEM offers a hint of ridging to the north of the British Isles and ECM's block might be more resilient beyond T+240 than seems the case but it's not a great prospect of fans of cold conditions moving into mid month and beyond.

[Methuselah]

It'ssss Monty Py... Oh, sorry it's not, it's a godawful North Atlantic profile!

[Premiere Neige]

10 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

The tenor of above posts doesn't really need me to put up the T+240 NH profiles but I will anyway:

That's ECM, GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control from 12Z

Hopes of the PV decamping to Siberia have now been put on the back burner and it's very much the same old story. The strong storm moving across the Pole causes the HP to sink south and kills off any prospect of advection of colder air from the east and the Atlantic takes over. GEM offers a hint of ridging to the north of the British Isles and ECM's block might be more resilient beyond T+240 than seems the case but it's not a great prospect of fans of cold conditions moving into mid month and beyond.

It'll never happen....it's day 10!

[Methuselah]

Well here it is. A sign. That must be a wooly mammoth, over Eastern Europe:

    

Oh, and BTW... remember to squint!

[bluearmy]

Still looking at a trend in the extended eps for the northern arm across n scandi preventing the upper ridge to our east gaining enough latitude to allow any deep cold to head to nw Europe 

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

It'ssss Monty Py... Oh, sorry it's not, it's a godawful North Atlantic profile!

And now for something completely different!...even though it’s only the cfs 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[bluearmy]

13 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Longer term ECM clusters are all going for a Scandi blocking high of sorts:



Always in with a sniff with a Scandi high around!
 

Implausible that there is one cluster given the eps mean output for those timeframes ..... clearly a lot of spread 

[damianslaw]

Yes strong signal for a robust blocking feature to our NE. Subtle shifts in its dynamics will determine how things pan out, the jet is not expected to power up anytime soon, so every chance energy transfer can go under and flip the pattern, but may be a slow protracted affair, given the rather static picture.

[northwestsnow]

Not keen on the trends over the last 24 hours to be honest.

The block is going to give way leaing the UK in a mild and potentially wet pattern.

On these rubbish times its not too much to ask for a 3 month freeze starting later in November is it?

[Gowon]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still looking at a trend in the extended eps for the northern arm across n scandi preventing the upper ridge to our east gaining enough latitude to allow any deep cold to head to nw Europe 

This island is damned.

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

This island is damned.

It’s not the end of the winter if a cold spell fails in the autumn! 

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not the end of the winter if a cold spell fails in the autumn! 

I'm just getting jitery already, Blue

Once that vortex strengthens, it's really hard to break it down.

[tight isobar]

@rapid analysis.. the equations to running previous momentum/top hemispheric sequence.. is a world away @ currently!!. Tropical forcing is in stage -@ guess.. and the usual bounce of massive advection @ seaboard /Pacific ridgjng . is as weak as a long time..   the blocking formats even via now- modelling, is notable without notion of any forming vortex at its mother lobe(usual) @NW upper hemisphere  limpit comfort zone...also NO notable early season Eurasia blocking scenarios.. yet with pokes @ the pole with minuscule/yet notable warming-in pockets @illustrated.. 500 s/ contoures. Get this running .. and all with repeat modeles north eastern punching via warm- air advection... then surely this is the best point .. just via those minor telecons... we’ve had .. for what seems a lifetime?!. @ position positive... if by gains and global says/streams- and atmospheric conditions .. we are as - now looking into the best shot @ a north western/ maritime cold blast front... then bk of winter....2020/2021... let’s see where we go ... aye?!

[Chesil View]

Apart from the odd outlier run Pretty much all of nwp has suggested (as per the meto outlook) that the middle two weeks of Nov would be most likely be dry and mild.

I certainly wouldn't be looking for any significant change in that before the last week of November at the earliest. (Again as per the Meto extended forecast)

[mb018538]

Another set of very, very mild runs on the 00z suite - with no signs of any block developing and setting up an easterly.

GFS goes well above average from tomorrow, and stays there for the next 2 weeks:




ECM is also mild throughout:



Temperatures are predicted to hit 14-16c from Saturday for a good week or so at least, with night time minima holding up in high single figures. Compare that to the average maxima (10-11c) and minima (4c) for the time of year, and you can see why November has a good chance of being seriously above average.

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another set of very, very mild runs on the 00z suite - with no signs of any block developing and setting up an easterly.

GFS goes well above average from tomorrow, and stays there for the next 2 weeks:




ECM is also mild throughout:



Temperatures are predicted to hit 14-16c from Saturday for a good week or so at least, with night time minima holding up in high single figures. Compare that to the average maxima (10-11c) and minima (4c) for the time of year, and you can see why November has a good chance of being seriously above average.

All in line with what the vast majority of nwp and Meto outlook has been suggesting.

[Weather vane]

Building Scandi high route to cold weather not playing ball, as charts show it slowing shifting East. Could be replaced by another one building from north central Europe. Lets hope...

[mb018538]

Here's the ECM clusters for the 00z - for day 10-15 we have 66.6% chance of a more blocked scenario holding out, while the smaller cluster of 33.3% is flatter and more westerly based.