Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[mb018538]

No changes in the short to mid term this morning.

Still looking well above average out to the middle of November on all models. GFS ensembles have a slight cooling trend towards week 3, with a few colder runs appearing.


 

[mb018538]

Longer term ECM clusters are all going for a Scandi blocking high of sorts:



Always in with a sniff with a Scandi high around!
 

[Frosty.]

Just had a look at the overnight models (Gfs / Ecm 0z) and with winds from the SSW/S/SSE/SE it becomes generally mild / very mild with little or no frost, some fine spells but equally some rain at times, especially further west...great news for the daffodils!

Edited November 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Aha, the jolly GFS at T+384:

    

I'll be happy should the PV still be raggedy, come mid-December. Then I'll start to get excited. Not now, though!

[Tim Bland]

It’s not often you see a 1055mb High over Greenland late November.  December could be interesting! 

[Paul_1978]

14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

mid November signals a point in the year where continental cold pools can sustain themselves, even when the cold source has been cut off. Should lower the DPs nicely across the continent and bring down ground temps.

Excellent point - we've had some good easterly setups in recent years.... where Europe has been warm .

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z at T+144... two potentially nice HP areas, that'll need to stay put, until December...? Split vortex?

    

Bugger! I was just about to reply to @Don's post... but The Phantom's up-and-about already!

Edited November 4, 2020 by General Cluster

[Froze were the Days]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Looks like my 6.7C guess for November could be a bust already!  Time for a turnaround mind.  Anyway, I would rather have a mild November followed by a cold December rather than the other way!

Tell me about it...In my mind we were either going to have the continuation of near the 1961-90 CET series or it was going to be mild ala July (coolish) into August (much warmer). Fooled by shortish to mid-term modelling I'm afraid and no signs for the 1st half of this month of positive MSLP anomalies towards Iceland/Greenland as forecast by ec seasonals.

[jules216]

15 hours ago, booferking said:

Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..

It was nice to see this for few outlier runs,but its back to reality today even for central Europe, I keep saying about the need of a trigger low otherwise this will end up more of a Sceuro high with cold out of reach. GFS 6Z is quite pathetic

[Tim Bland]

Spot the difference (00z Vs 06z ) ....

[sheikhy]

Taken a slight step backwards this morning!!hopefully 12zs can be a bit more blocky!!as usual

[Chesil View]

So basically the play out as yesterday with 0z being more blocky and the 06z being more progressive.

If anything interesting is to happen you really want it after midmonth anyway which ties in with the 15-30 day extended forecast .

[booferking]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

It was nice to see this for few outlier runs,but its back to reality today even for central Europe, I keep saying about the need of a trigger low otherwise this will end up more of a Sceuro high with cold out of reach. GFS 6Z is quite pathetic

Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

[damianslaw]

I said the other day there is always one GFS run per day that sends Atlantic in overdrive, it's normal practice. Trouble with GFS too many runs, too much margin for error and inconsistency, the difference between 0z and 6z run couldn't be more different, case in point. 

[LRD]

16 minutes ago, booferking said:

Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

That Met Office chart is a corker with heights looking good right over the pole. However, I remember the Dec 2012 Scandi High/E'ly-that-never-was debacle and will remain conscious of that

Although it is encouraging that the Met Office are seeing cold late Nov/early Dec too I guess

This is completely unscientific and I don't know if I'm imagining it but it seems to me that Greenland Highs are better forecast by all models than Scandi Highs. Whether that is true or not I don't know but that's my perception. All it takes is a slight underestimation of the strength of the northern jet by the computers and, once corrected, Scandi Highs are then modelled to either quickly collapse or not become a reality at all. As I say, I could be completely making that up

Edited November 4, 2020 by LRD

[Bradley in Kent]

15 minutes ago, LRD said:

That Met Office chart is a corker with heights looking good right over the pole. However, I remember the Dec 2012 Scandi High/E'ly-that-never-was debacle and will remain conscious of that

Although it is encouraging that the Met Office are seeing cold late Nov/early Dec too I guess

This is completely unscientific and I don't know if I'm imagining it but it seems to me that Greenland Highs are better forecast by all models than Scandi Highs. Whether that is true or not I don't know but that's my perception. All it takes is a slight underestimation of the strength of the northern jet by the computers and, once corrected, Scandi Highs are then modelled to either quickly collapse or not become a reality at all. As I say, I could be completely making that up

I thought that too. Perhaps it's the fact that Greenland is a more stable area and generally isn't on the receiving end of the Atlantic Jet - probably easier for models to grasp since there are less variables / influencers. 

 

I remember in January 2016 after that record breaking December models predicting a Scandi high with some what would have been welcome cold weather. Then at the last moment a hurricane decided to make an appearance and ousted the high right into Russia. And that was it for the rest of that winter

[Frosty.]

For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! ️  

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! ️  

 

If only Steven Spielberg were in charge of the GFS!

[DavidS]

15 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

For sure there are some close encounters with significant cold within the GEFS 6z...even some snaw!..and the mean does support something colder from the east around the mid month period! ️  

 

I’m loving 26.

[jules216]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Fair enough but it was the ecm i quoted you not the gfs and the trend is for a more blocky outlook heading to mid month and the possibility of the high to shift west metoffice onboard and the gfs 6z worst verification of the lot.

By the way that's a decent 144hr ukmo best of this morning runs.

I know there is still a small chance this particular episode can still come across to me in Slovakia as some ensembles suggest.I hate those sinking heighs though so much.At least there will be frost under that high

[Methuselah]

And here's the MetO's take on just how the models are shaping up... Gloomy, aye -- but at least it'll be mild!

 

[mb018538]

Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
 

If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

[swfc]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
 

If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

Yes it seems we're heading to "ranksville" today after things looked OK previous couple of days. Not great signs from the met ete. PV looks likely to blow up also via zonal wind increase ao - nao. Early days tho suck it and see time

[That ECM]

32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty unremarkable set of 12z runs so far - mild, mild and milder sums it up. A long stretch of southerly based winds. Where was this pattern in July?!
 

If the second half of the month doesn’t cool down significantly, this is going up end up in the all time November list. From Saturday onwards we’ve got a fair run of 10c+ CET days coming up. Anything above 8.7c is a top 10 month.

T264 mean. Looks ok to me. Whether a run is “good” or “bad”  it’s just one run.

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T264 mean. Looks ok to me. Whether a run is “good” or “bad”  it’s just one run.

It’s a bit on the edge - we’re quite close to the high and low boundaries. A shift either way could mean continued very mild, or pretty cold with easterly winds setting in. I’d say the milder outcome is favoured at the moment, but certainly one to watch!