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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
32 minutes ago, booferking said:

Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..

The SCUERO high will destroy all hope of survival ! 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Not a bad ECM run too. Within the next two weeks, if we do get some of the magical white stuff, surely driving to see it would be considered essential? For some of us anyway! 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes, hope so. I will believe it when I see it. 21c in parts of Eastern Austria yesterday. 

 C

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A few cherry picked GEFS members from earlier, much to be positive from the models and unusually backed up by the longer range METO

D71EDD06-D380-4CFB-AA31-844851969F64.png

6F3ED826-3FF5-4BF0-ADFA-4CC2F1D96D78.png

11B8D3B2-3974-4E11-8C47-3138DB18F19B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The ECM Mean is looking pretty good at 168 and 192, not bad at all

image.thumb.png.3ea23d9beda971f418d761c26dc8d9b5.pngimage.thumb.png.fb79385d38d3e8c38062bcbbc0108654.png  

Just hoping one of these episodes can get some proper HLB, but not a bad starting point (considering we're 4 weeks shy of winter!).

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Look at that, for a GFS T+384 chart!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I do hope this passes the somewhat vague preferences of the Phantom Post Deleter!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
On 02/11/2020 at 16:58, carinthian said:

I would not say no chance but would agree not likely with DP of 3-4C. Of course in the time span of only 2 to 3 hours  , especially with temporary movement of cold air as associated with the disturbance across Southern Britain early tomorrow, heavy precipitation can lower the DP close to 0c for a short time as per chart below.

C

GFSOPUK12_12_10.png

Some snow cover reported and generally restricted to the highest parts of The Brecon Beacons earlier this morning .

C

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Good to see some interesting  charts appearing albeit at the extended range currently. Certainly better than the dross of winter 2019/20.

Meto update going for cold later in November and early December is always a good positive sign as well.

People this morning were commenting about others getting excited at outlier Boom charts at 384 on the gfs especially when the 00z freezer charts gave way to balmy southerlies on the 06z all I would say in that regard is that every cold and snowy spell we've ever had in the christmas pudding will have been an outlier boom chart at 384 at some point. 

We await developments as November progresses with interest.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

I wasn't sure of the evolution looking at last night's 12Z models but as a wise man once said, "tomorrow's just another day" so let's see where we are tonight:

image.thumb.png.ad0c9e558b417358136bb6eb2403adc8.pngimage.thumb.png.c026ec44f95e5faca220774a0b43f788.pngimage.thumb.png.64a63f1e35824699f29c973353a07726.png

Similarities but also subtle differences between the ECM, GEM and GFS OP at T+240.

Both ECM and GEM build the HP over Southern Scandinavia but the GEM HP orientation draws a warmer SSE'ly feed with the ECM threatening more of an advection of frigid air. GFS OP has the core of the HP further to the NE - it's a proper HLB and the potential for advection is obvious but it looks too far to the east for coldies.

Looking at the PV profile  - ECM has an elongated lobe suggesting a transfer of energy to Siberia which would help hold the Scandinavian HP in situ. GEM has plenty of colder air over Siberia with the vortex core edging further into Canada. GFS OP keeps a strong PV in its usual place but a lobe has detached into the Atlantic.

GFS keeps the Atlantic most active and the profile doesn't look the best for cold to this observer with too much energy. ECM looks the most promising with the Atlantic quiet and a possible energy transfer across the Pole.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ecm spread 850’s shows the possible extent of the easterly at day 10 

80E04372-FD1A-4B27-AC71-E660F1174606.thumb.jpeg.5e3fa0a0820a0e0066daaffbde8cbd0d.jpeg
 

and adding the upper heights 

A) likely centre of upper ridge

B) the possible low height incursion  (matching with the 850 spread 

c) where the Atlantic may attempt to split some flow se

C1392B11-6546-4CC6-A827-6B468CC87536.thumb.jpeg.5bc7a814f88c591ee66e4e49cd07c778.jpeg

 

what should be noted is that the ext eps mean output trends that possible scandi ridge sinking - the shape of any surface ridge becomes significant re surface conditions across nw Europe 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
23 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Some snow cover reported and generally restricted to the highest parts of The Brecon Beacons earlier this morning .

C

Yes can vouch for that. Some very small quantities above around 550m.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Fairly similar progression on this run... 

(big picture that is, without getting wrapped up in too much detail at this range) 

gfsnh-0-216 (3).png

gfsnh-0-222 (1).png

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Think it’s fair to say that the Eastern UK/European/Scandinavian High is definitely not sinking on this run (288 hours)

69F7B33D-7568-4317-9A13-2A4B2174753C.thumb.png.1ff411cb72c329f654e945776f629240.png
 

It’s typical as well that the UK would be one of the only places to be under the milder wedge of 850 hPa temperatures (276 hours):

81BC10DE-BBF3-407B-A516-69E818006717.thumb.png.969d0d1247bcc67c3ece02577c563453.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Removing empty space at bottom
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The cold never manages to reach the UK but this would put the SPV under some serious pressure! 

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.5279f3fad853e20380700a54117d7309.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Which led to this a week later. 

Screenshot_20201103-230012.png

Thanks for this, it's a much better way of describing the kind of evolution to expect as I describe for cold, a southerly switched to a northerly, many many a time such switcharound happen. Key ingredient is jet split and energy going underneath heights this is the trigger. Not saying this will happen, but this is what can happen when this happens.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL


Day 10 full of potential again on the GFS, beyond then is anyone’s guess but it’s looking very promising for heights to build to our NE. 

image.thumb.png.7aa6ecf27ccc6eb311ebc3012653e587.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
7 hours ago, Griff said:

Fairly similar progression on this run... 

(big picture that is, without getting wrapped up in too much detail at this range) 

gfsnh-0-216 (3).png

gfsnh-0-222 (1).png

gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.88e4e5d4eb065f33acd2d28b2dc84ef7.png

Similarities and differences, a bit like opinion polls, suggestive of something but far from guaranteed a winner  

As @Ali1977 just said, potential yes, guarantees, no... 

Edited by Griff
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