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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting to note Met Office going for cold end of November, so we may eventually get there..

Yep just read the update and is a nice read towards the end of November and start of December. Let’s hope it holds firm and maybe some of these brilliant runs from the gfs will come of and the BFTE hits are shores .  

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9FC71FE9-BF76-474F-A355-6F98C38FE92A.png

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
18 minutes ago, swfc said:

Riding from South West stops the march of cold air

Was a big tease in the end wasn’t it but obviously won’t pan out like that. Get the block in place and we are in the game at least.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

Was a big tease in the end wasn’t it but obviously won’t pan out like that. Get the block in place and we are in the game at least.

Exactly and its only November. Be positive you never know we might get a break

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Exactly and its only November. Be positive you never know we might get a break

Would be amazing to have such a deep cold pool coming over the relatively warm North Sea. I will never forget the Thunder Snow of 2010 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

There does seem to be *some* support for a potential colder period of weather later this month. The GFS 12z of course develops quite a Scandi block and advects cold air westwards across Europe, this not without support amongst the ECM clusters.

20201103173320-1c1221be697ca0f1b4901342bf3358c3bbb4a746.thumb.png.4b90789a74b7f46c60a70bdc8840be86.png

Whether this translates to an early UK cold spell or not however remains to be seen. But certainly support for a Scandi block later this month.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
31 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

There does seem to be *some* support for a potential colder period of weather later this month. The GFS 12z of course develops quite a Scandi block and advects cold air westwards across Europe, this not without support amongst the ECM clusters.

20201103173320-1c1221be697ca0f1b4901342bf3358c3bbb4a746.thumb.png.4b90789a74b7f46c60a70bdc8840be86.png

Whether this translates to an early UK cold spell or not however remains to be seen. But certainly support for a Scandi block later this month.

 

Reading other thinking, based on the La Nina background , and  lagged effect of recent tropical activity, then the route to a colder evolution if it comes off will come courtesy of the current ridge to the east swapping places with the current trough sat to our west, a classic switcharound, warm air advection through mid atlantic inflating heights to our east, cold air advection on its eastern flanks, energy then splits - jet goes underneath the heights and allows retrogression to take place, and instead we end up with a colder flow from the north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just to show how fair / unbiased I am...here’s a few charts from the longer term GEFS 12z...both offer something different!...take your pick!

0772BBD5-2C0B-4582-B76E-147612A44278.thumb.jpeg.2dda719a8360c3584abcf7a24abac883.jpeg7115C887-8EA6-4CF8-9956-214F823213C4.thumb.jpeg.2135aed2366cc86ca4a5b810fca71585.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

We are seeing some nice output at the moment and not just staring down the barrel at dros.

5F25A048-8FC2-4CBB-86A1-0777A561B982.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reading other thinking, based on the La Nina background , and  lagged effect of recent tropical activity, then the route to a colder evolution if it comes off will come courtesy of the current ridge to the east swapping places with the current trough sat to our west, a classic switcharound, warm air advection through mid atlantic inflating heights to our east, cold air advection on its eastern flanks, energy then splits - jet goes underneath the heights and allows retrogression to take place, and instead we end up with a colder flow from the north. 

Yes - I think so. And the Sceuro high is a definite friend here, helping perturb the vortex from below and assisted by forecasts of north pacific low pressure systems running close to the Rocky Mts....

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Well the ECM looks as tho it could go on to deliver the long awaited easterly. Nice runs this evening

1116990D-A0F0-4A13-8B81-8BB51BE788AD.png

C90DFB07-1005-4363-9413-C253BF0E70F1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

Yes NWS 

Ecm now smelling the western train but will it deliver that eastern promise

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.68d1f7ebcd91d514cea1bf92c9f74a8b.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.4c84dfcf211de99147f358836e847df9.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.f61f9aa1f3b021c39f62f089260903f0.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A pretty impressive anticyclone of 1045 Mb across Eastern Scandanavia on EC det this evening..

Certainly an early taste of Winter for Eastern Poland ,Baltics,Belarus Ukraine etc...

Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes NWS 

Ecm now smelling the western train but will it deliver that eastern promise

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.68d1f7ebcd91d514cea1bf92c9f74a8b.gifECH0-240.thumb.gif.4c84dfcf211de99147f358836e847df9.gifECH101-240.thumb.gif.f61f9aa1f3b021c39f62f089260903f0.gif

 

The low pressure development to our SW  this weekend, certainly an indicator that energy in the jet is wanting to split, indicative of its weakened nature.. its perhaps no surprise longer term we see a more east-west orientation of heights to our NE then north-south, as energy is forced underneath.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Massive scandi high incoming!!more seasonal weather over the next 2 weeks!!

And beyond!!!...hopefully!

but...

we are not there yet so lets see what happens over the next few days

and not forgetting that failed easterly at just 72hrs out!!!

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
20 minutes ago, booferking said:

Dont forget to give a special mention to Slovakia @jules216 -8 850s days 9 & 10..

And @carinthian☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The low pressure development to our SW  this weekend, certainly an indicator that energy in the jet is wanting to split, indicative of its weakened nature.. its perhaps no surprise longer term we see a more east-west orientation of heights to our NE then north-south, as energy is forced underneath.

Yes @damianslawI think we still see troughing into Europe from both the Russian side and the Atlantic. Ideally, as you mention a split in the Atlantic energy is perhaps best indicated in the latter part of the GFS run. The ECM is looking promising but still shows too much energy over the North Arm of the Scandi High. Its a fine balance to get the right synoptics to advect cold air westwards but we need to see lower heights over Southern Europe with an undercut of the block.

C

 

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