Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Duane S.]

Classic retrogression route played out by the GFS 00z this morning, lovely looking FI. WAA punches NE and combines with meandering Arctic heights. Robust Scandi/Russian high formed, vortex drawn over the top and pressure drops in EU, northern heights eventually sink southwards but with lower heights over Europe and the vortex out of the way, propensity would then be to be drawn NW and open the door to some decent cold. Ah, we can but hope.

It’s at a time of year when this sort of thing is more likely. What often looks like a raging vortex is usually not, it’s a growing but often susceptible vortex. Less inclined to be rooted around Greenland and be a party pooper. 

I actually think we’ve been unlucky not to have got a decent cold spell through late November over the past few years. The ingredients look to be there again this year, just need those pesky dice to roll in our favour as well.

[SMU]

Ice day !

[Polar Maritime]

Good lord..

Edited November 3, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

As lovely as the GFS op run is this morning...it's a ridiculous outlier as you'd expect, and the mean goes well above average in the next 2 days and stays there throughout.



All of the models are actually way, way above average as we go into next week with a flow of southerlies:



Temperatures quite widely into the mid teens by day, and holding up by night too.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Gfs oz way in fi is a cracker. 

It's the way you tell 'em, swfc... Some wintry stuff at last!

[Ice Day]

57 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ice day !

Yes Steve? Oh, I see.

Anyway, beautiful looking GFS this morning, let's see how many of the GEFS are seeing something similar?

 

Edit. Not many 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Ice Day

[DavidS]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As lovely as the GFS op run is this morning...it's a ridiculous outlier as you'd expect, and the mean goes well above average in the next 2 days and stays there throughout.



All of the models are actually way, way above average as we go into next week with a flow of southerlies:



Temperatures quite widely into the mid teens by day, and holding up by night too.

Absolutely the southerlies are there. But is it not the southerly and the northward transportation of warm air that allows for the later easterly on the GFS in FI?

[Sky Full]

I’m a little late to the party this morning but there is every reason to celebrate the GFS showing a lovely easterly bringing cold air from across Northern Europe from the 11th to the 19th November.  I can only add the animations to show how this is developed by the GFS.....

   
 

We would be extremely lucky (and excited!) if these patterns continue to be seen into the +72hour range but for me it seems to be a pattern which is becoming repetitive in the charts and perhaps more and more likely to occur at some point during late November or December.  The later the better, really....

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Hope you are all well.

First of all...what can we say about October!? Very wet and sunshine was in short supply for many of us.

Mean temperature, Rainfall amount and Sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 Anomaly.

 

Beautiful GFS in the latter stages as posted above but as @mb018538 mentioned...sadly a huge outlier. 

With regards to November there has been a quick switch to a mild outlook on the ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies:

Weekly breakdown below:

09/11 to 15/11 (Anyone for a spot of sunbathing? )

 

16/11 to 22/11 

 

23/11 to 29/11

 

So cooling off in the final week of November and then...

30/11 to 06/12

 

07/12 to 13/12: 

 

Still on course for a cold start to December which is great to see - if anything wintry arrives before then...that would be great also! 
 

As ever take the above charts with a very large pinch of salt - subject to change of course! (As seen by the previous update!)

Current weather...lovely few days ahead for many of us with plenty of sunshine and air/ground frosts about.

I shall see you all again when we are snowed in during the first fortnight of December!  

All the best to you all!

Edited November 3, 2020 by Mr Frost

[That ECM]

Gfs grabs the headlines and is nice viewing. The ecm is not without interest either. 

[sheikhy]

16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

Hope you are all well.

First of all...what can we say about October!? Very wet and sunshine was in short supply for many of us.

Mean temperature, Rainfall amount and Sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 Anomaly.

 

Beautiful GFS in the latter stages as posted above but as @mb018538 mentioned...sadly a huge outlier. 

With regards to November there has been a quick switch to a mild outlook on the ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies:

Weekly breakdown below:

09/11 to 15/11 (Anyone for a spot of sunbathing? )

 

16/11 to 22/11 

 

23/11 to 29/11

 

So cooling off in the final week of November and then...

30/11 to 06/12

 

07/12 to 13/12: 

 

Still on course for a cold start to December which is great to see - if anything wintry arrives before then...that would be great also! 
 

As ever take the above charts with a very large pinch of salt - subject to change of course! (As seen by the previous update!)

Current weather...lovely few days ahead of course for many of us with plenty of sunshine and air/ground frosts about.

I shall see you all again when we are snowed in during the first fortnight of December!  

Take care and all the best to you all.

But as you said its switched to mild last minute so probably expect a switch to milder for december come closer to the time!!

[Tim Bland]

Wowzers -12c uppers over a warm North Sea = snow machine !!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That looks my Xmas week chart for winter 2020/21

 

BFTP

[mb018538]

ECM clusters this morning:

192-240 hours - Unusually, we only have one cluster for all three steps! This signals very good agreement. Mild with southerlies a certainty.





264-360 hours - Cluster 1 looks most promising. Cluster 2/3 milder with a W/SW flow dominating.

[Weather vane]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I might just print this one out and stick it up on the wall, it's so beautiful. Shane it's deep FI territory.

[northwestsnow]

There seems to be a trend to push any block a little too far east now on EC in particular...

We certainly don't want Lows stalling near the UK as we have had more than enough rain here recently !!

I could live with a Sceuro high ...

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 10

ECM

 

GEM

 

GFS

 

A fairly formidable ridge to the east of the U.K. is likely to develop into week 2. How this transpires later on is another question. A cold easterly is certainly possible, however patterns like this in November have occurred before with little reward later on. I guess at least there is some interest around mid-month and beyond.

[booferking]

Good signal this morning from EC mean for scandi ridge to build.

[Ali1977]

4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Ice day !

An Ice day 18 Nov would be exceptional down south, when did that last happen I wonder!!! 
 

Nice to be back tracking these FI charts, hopefully some come into fruition this winter.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

6z illustrates why a poorly aligned block to the east can manifest into a very wet pattern...

[northwestsnow]

^^

That said there is a big Arctic high on 6z and a deep cold pool way to the NE...

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z illustrates why a poorly aligned block to the east can manifest into a very wet pattern...

This is the problem is everything shifts east slightly like the 6z, we just get stuck in a run of SW winds. We need that high to build back and not just slip away.

[LRD]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM clusters this morning:

192-240 hours - Unusually, we only have one cluster for all three steps! This signals very good agreement. Mild with southerlies a certainty.





264-360 hours - Cluster 1 looks most promising. Cluster 2/3 milder with a W/SW flow dominating.

Even cluster 2 would offer longer term hope as there are high pressure anomalies punching into the Arctic. Cluster 3 is dreadful for cold. Looks like everything is flattening. It's a minority, of course, but still too many members backing that for my liking

[Froze were the Days]

Good old GFS FI charts...what else would we do without them? we need some crumb of comfort to get us through the winter months.

[LRD]

Ah the folly of chasing GFS FI charts

The 0Z run gave us something like Jan 1987

The 6Z run gives us something like Jan 1989

From winter cold affluence to winter cold effluence in 6 hours!

Ah well, it's only November