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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 6 - The biggest off the scale black hole we have ever seen...

D068B81D-9C35-448E-8632-EEB98F278EF2.thumb.jpeg.f06cfb84ce2f57df60be1a58e38f8be0.jpeg

This is the biggest black hole I've seen...

hungriestofb.thumb.jpg.4d99fceb552d3a5c299c16b7e6c95061.jpg

Sorry, I'll leave now

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The GFS op wasn't an outlier..

graphe3_1000_298_107___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And ECM is screaming the word *POTENTIAL*  at the end of its run too.

Yes, potentially.

ECH1-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And ECM is screaming the word *POTENTIAL*  at the end of its run too.

Indeed. We got a little spoilt with that GFS pearler of a run but this from ECM is well....... Shall we say far from the usual mid November atlantic dross we usually have to suffer. 

Screenshot_20201031-190621.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

We may be heading toward lockdown but this site is heading toward meltdown. I imagine the GFS 12Z OP FI has got many salivating - it's classic retrogression and were it mid-December rather than mid-November and at T+24 rather than T+348, apart from those claiming it was a "downgrade" and could still go "mammatus verticus", I imagine the snow-chasers would be heading to the lamposts.

Anyway, this is as irrelevant as a hat-stand in a Transformers movie so instead I'll focus on the medium term and the NH profiles:

12Z ECM, GEM and GFS OP at T+240:

image.thumb.png.3aca061e9967ebbb12548ca535d327a2.pngimage.thumb.png.83599ee029ab15c8a317bc1f5f8ccb14.pngimage.thumb.png.e944257e978583cb5843d40776208c04.png

The key seems to be whether we can get a "clean" displacement of the PV toward Siberia. GFS OP and ECM just about manage it though GEM doesn't going instead for a more defined polar ridging profile which suggests Scandinavian heights rather than Greenland heights. It's perfectly possible as 1962-63 showed to have a strong PV but for it to be oriented to enable heights over Scandinavia. It really needs the core of the PV to be pushed further back into Canada rather than to Siberia and the latter is the key to Greenland height rises and all the fun of retrogression which then brings the trough into Scandinavia.

At T+240 of course one can only note words like "potential". The form horse looks like heights to the north or east of the British isles at least initially.

I'd also argue those arguing for retrogression should be careful what they wish for - it's a fine line between a successful transition to a cold N'ly or NNE'ly and a west-based negative NAO which will get you the Greenland heights but a return of milder air. 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.thumb.png.614d2447bf687bd5f565fa33bf53fa5f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Last post from me, I’m out of reactions and posting rights blah blah but looking at the GEFS 12z mean there is very strong support for a Scandi high so a blocked pattern beyond the current unsettled spell is the form horse! .....Ciao!

ps.. the Ecm Northerly didn’t last long did it!

4D7D7B16-3F60-433B-952F-8A05F4EC7582.thumb.jpeg.f6434646f1d0af27c5a32ca54a3b9a1c.jpeg9BC8BDAD-67A1-4B57-BD6D-2F9D826D90F0.thumb.jpeg.c69a214382f91f7d7b4c3b22b8c70f68.jpeg

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Haven't worked out how to view the new ECM clusters (keeps saying not working for me), but even the old Icelandic version is clearly showing positive anomalies to the north. While they are there, we might get lucky with early wintriness, but it still needs to be optimal for another month yet

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/31/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020103100_360.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. We got a little spoilt with that GFS pearler of a run but this from ECM is well....... Shall we say far from the usual mid November atlantic dross we usually have to suffer. 

Screenshot_20201031-190621.png

All I can say is look out for energy coming up from the south...been a feature of the weather over the last few weeks - strange synoptics at this time of year nowdays if there isn't a roaring jet stream. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro at day 10 cuts off the low in the Atlantic and if anything would apply less pressure over Canada allowing a better long term pattern.

It would seem that the Met Office call was correct and we will see a cold spell heading towards mid month.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting how the favoured point for HLB is retrogressing slowly from scrussian towards gricelandic ...

Maybe a swing back to scrussian according to the 12z ecm mean.

Screenshot_20201031-212330.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe a swing back to scrussian according to the 12z ecm mean.

Screenshot_20201031-212330.png

And in the extended ....no clear signal on the mean for a visit of (non frosty) winter by mid nov - but a slow steady road to getting the jet linked up to our south as euro high heights gradually fall away. The period entering the final third of the month could be anything and that includes a repeat of 2010. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well.. November begins tomorrow so by mid month the hunt is on for me personally..

(Its the time of year when Interest grows- esp in these awful times)..

Its ruddy typical Bonfire night looks just about perfect for outdoor activities as it stands...dry cool sums it up..

It does look like the high will eventually drift north potentially allowing for some kind of Northerly...solar wise mid Nov the nights are really drawing in which of course can lead to frosts under clear skies...

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And in the extended ....no clear signal on the mean for a visit of (non frosty) winter by mid nov - but a slow steady road to getting the jet linked up to our south as euro high heights gradually fall away. The period entering the final third of the month could be anything and that includes a repeat of 2010. 

All very intriguing. Euro heights falling is a good sign. 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

fantasy  world   got  POTENTIAL  as some else has  said  to night!!!

gfs-2-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

A bit quieter here this evening... 

Seems the GFS 18z doesn't take the heights into Greenland whilst they persist over continental Europe and to the East... 

More runs needed...

gfsnh-0-294 (1).png

gfsnh-0-300 (2).png

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