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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
33 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

anim_wtn8.gif

Nice one Zak, you know, I would love a potent mid nov Northerly, however unlikely it would seem..but, perhaps we might see an easterly to...don’t rule it out either!!!!!..but, whatever happens it looks like becoming predominantly settled for some considerable time!!!!

 

ps..someone get rid of these spiders webs..I suffer from arachnophobia!

2A0096B2-4203-4C8B-8399-F869D296587E.thumb.jpeg.49eeb2f08c673d31208d318d84918cc6.jpeg47A5492D-8DEA-4906-9BA3-1AD000B35E97.thumb.jpeg.113833fa6dbe1cca6b31a24bbfc00fa8.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Day 10 ECM

image.thumb.png.e0973856ec4cf0927b377bdca5bfcef6.png

Day 16 GFS  (yes, I know.....)

image.thumb.png.1357cd3e9d1082f0ddb34fec2edfaf17.png

Whilst details are pointless of course, there is a certain theme developing here that will certainly peak this forum's interest!  There's endless things that could go wrong, but I've enjoyed staring at these charts for the last 10 minutes if nothing else!  Just a slight touch of 2010 about these..... maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

We have seen the prospect of mid, high lat blocking toward in FI for a few days now and for now those signals have firmed up but with a shift on emphasis toward Atlantic blocking rather than a Sc/Euro block with the PV moving toward Siberia.

That may switch back and plenty of time for the blocking signal to flatten out but some will already be reimagining a decade ago.

AVN_2_2010112100_1.png 

GFSOPNH06_264_1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
31 minutes ago, Mucka said:

We have seen the prospect of mid, high lat blocking toward in FI for a few days now and for now those signals have firmed up but with a shift on emphasis toward Atlantic blocking rather than a Sc/Euro block with the PV moving toward Siberia.

That may switch back and plenty of time for the blocking signal to flatten out but some will already be reimagining a decade ago.

AVN_2_2010112100_1.png 

GFSOPNH06_264_1.png

 

The signal has been there for a long time EC46 from 19/10 and even before were showing this change in second week of November trending negative AO and NAO. Not ordinary times we live in. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

12z GFS is showing height rises near Iceland. Let's see how this pans out.

gfs-0-210.thumb.png.bd0343481e1221383add25a261551373.png

@210

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting model runs today so far, a flip to something much more settled as we move into November, possibility of a lengthy blocked spell. Shift towards more of a mid Atlantic block ridging north to eventually maybe bring much colder weather, all courtesy of shift in PV to Siberia. Would tie in with la Nina background state. Models may be trying to set up a strong block too soon, but direction of travel appears to be heading in this direction. At a time in the year when we need sunshine I'm not complaining, we could do without flooding and storms right now with everything else going on.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

That blocking over Iceland seen in my previous post starts to migrate to the NW on the 12z GFS. Quite a few models have been showing a blocking over Iceland and Greenland - could this be a sign of something?

We've got to be careful when looking at charts like these, however - it's still way out in FI and will inevitably change.

Just looking at this run for fun and it is churning out some pretty stunning charts:

gfs-0-336.png

2010 again anyone?

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

This is what you want ....

64B86A45-D1A2-4D6B-9783-3B82F6223E0B.thumb.png.7e1f19f3b0548aa8f47d38b77e1f5940.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Here comes the snow on the GFS -

gfseuw-2-354.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well, if the GFS is going to show them, I'm going to post them!! 

Wonderous looking charts..... no deep cold yet but still!  

image.thumb.png.beec417c79a911542d19eb4d10287b08.pngimage.thumb.png.98c2ffac174bca337dfa4a528ae66cb2.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

gfsnh-0-372.thumb.png.3789f157dbd74288e7e7ed66d8c9091e.pnggfsnh-12-372.thumb.png.c6193cc2db60713d6a831c20a669c0e4.png1354184041_giphy(18).thumb.gif.e511909815568a7943bdf907fd5a40cd.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Aint seen these kinda charts for november since 2010!!!amazing stuff!!but will it happen?one things for sure we wre about to enter a cold frosty period at the very least!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A Saturday night Halloween special from the ecm

Screenshot_20201031-171335.png

I think the witches and ghosts might scare it off and that northerly will be non-existent tomorrow

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

GFS been on the rum this evening. If only it were true eh.

image.thumb.png.d9043f617dfa97a03a38eaf6646df164.png  image.thumb.png.310357287b200da79448e6a36b64122f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting how the favoured point for HLB is retrogressing slowly from scrussian towards gricelandic ...

All great winters started like this

Edited by booferking
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