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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
1 hour ago, IDO said:

The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

anim_tri3.gif

On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

Some pretty NH profiles indeed. The 00z FI GFS looks like a lopsided butterfly. Should be some cold for North Eastern US  and also North Eastern Europe in this set up. Also the potential for others to get in on the action., although it is FI and still only November

 

770227E9-5939-4D9D-9CED-21E72012D8C9.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

when I woke up and saw this the phrase rhymed  with ‘clucking bell’.  Starting to get excited about the first half of winter now!
image.thumb.png.d066a79520a0ba112cce5a5827e49324.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

ECM day 10 - first op chart of the season worth a comment. Looking nice and blocked  

B1420B35-8875-4742-8E1D-8E5B83982BBB.thumb.png.432cac3a3d8d2d261acd51e73e7be9b0.png

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Arghhhh..loving the ECM 0z op BUT I want too see days 11,12 & 13 dammit!!!!:snowman-emoji: ❄️ ⛄
01C833D7-BD9D-412C-AEC2-74F58878CE1E.thumb.jpeg.f9ff026830529159071d47da2b882a74.jpeg33F5C182-9972-4412-ACC4-1BB344B1F467.thumb.jpeg.e6a54f2f3b5ba69e14c69cfc08faaf0f.jpeg0D6453EE-3F75-4CCA-9269-11D0E9BCF1E8.thumb.jpeg.84f03dd223e618800357080811a9a726.jpegA4C023DD-9247-41AC-A7D4-16D514CD141F.thumb.jpeg.733ed6e7e2befaa9395df854e0d271cc.jpeg
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

0z ECM 10 day mean showing HP slap bang over the UK

EDM1-240_umh3.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It’s good too seee the GEFS 0z mean looking strongly anticyclonic in the mid / longer term which ties in with Exeter’s thoughts!..nice ECM 0z ens mean day 10 to!!!...However, I would love a screaming mid Nov Northerly!!!!...ps..has anyone got any cobweb remover?, I can’t clean them off my new tablet!!!!

C9BDB951-05B7-4294-8D23-224FA8786A21.thumb.jpeg.009e7e62aa699420127827f0eb26b58f.jpeg0064AAA7-5095-453C-94D4-86591C1FF9AD.thumb.jpeg.dc37aff926572960a44f1f2ddd1eb8e2.jpeg704781EC-4D97-4CC8-8F2C-214012A7B3B6.thumb.jpeg.d241c34cc11b97c90a66ff5abda485ec.jpegEB54D3B5-53A3-4CC3-B9AE-CCFA8A1E29F8.thumb.jpeg.89d77a5a9f493335bd3481496a9ae0e7.jpeg1FE5FD82-586D-4531-8519-354E215FAB48.thumb.jpeg.717f3c924c5eeb537b99d57a61b9af18.jpeg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London

I see the season of "look at those 10 day charts" has well and truly begun.  Not getting into the hype yet, but certainly must be a small to moderate possibility that we end up with a colder, blocked scenario around mid/late November,

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Net/wx-sr showing severe gales midday tomorrow for the N/W Highlands.

1943121440_viewimage-2020-10-31T102615_361.thumb.png.59d9189c878afffdd589d0af429b08e9.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Nice to see unless you live in the canaries.

719A9A39-5E38-4A7E-B440-00A3A382F634.png

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

I'd be chuffed with that 10 day chart if it were to continue on a trend over the next few days.

We must not get carried away or people will get unhappy rather quickly!

ECM mean does have high pressure over the UK which I'll take any day with frosty nights!

image.thumb.png.11e6dc38c1b2285d0408293f0c21266e.png 

Edited by Jamiee
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Please let’s not get too analytical on a day 10 ecm op ..... it looks like a period of high amplification with HLB and a very stressed trop vortex through week 2 - anything more detailed than that is wasteful of your time ! 

Aye, another year of Vortex Stress is getting underway!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

image.thumb.png.f3b7de322d6d2cd0beba8aa1b56438f5.png

More eye candy for you lot with an omega block over Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

First of all, R.I.P Sir Sean Connery..the BEST JAMES BOND EVER!!!..second of all, the GEFS 6z mean stays generally settled..even at the end!!!

 

292259B1-16FF-4ABD-B337-09D2982CAEAF.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Storm Aidan arrives and looks like more severe weather over the rest of the weekend with Gales and potentially damaging stronger squalls/gusts to come.  

06z shows some very tight isobars to cross the heart of the country so not merely breezy one would think.

image.thumb.png.2b5751ecb70a2aa0d0d64a2011b6dd7e.png

image.thumb.png.7a1ddaf0450c633d81a95935ca3926f3.png

HP building in from W / NW toppling over us to follow.  Could get some nice frosty nights and a nice long dry spell would be good too ( in time for lockdown???).  I think every chance of a HP influenced November is on the cards.
As being said some nice NH profiles being shown as posted aplenty in posts above.


BFTP

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

anim_wtn8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just seen this mornings ECM. Blimey! The building blocks are there for a northerly..

anim_wtn8.gif

I havent been through eps individually, i would expect  some limited support given the mean but nothing really from the GEFS and its a 30 member suite now, when a 240 op shows that, for it to have a likelihood of bringing a proper Northerly down from the Arctic, you would expect at least a few GEFS members to go as low as -8c to -10c on the 850hpa temps by 384.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I havent been through eps individually, i would expect  some limited support given the mean but nothing really from the GEFS and its a 30 member suite now, when a 240 op shows that, for it to have a likelihood of bringing a proper Northerly down from the Arctic, you would expect at least a few GEFS members to go as low as -8c to -10c on the 850hpa temps by 384.

There are options that would bring 850hpa you talk about just need patients mid month onwards is where the fun will begin I believe. 

gensnh-18-1-384.png

gensnh-4-1-384.png

gensnh-6-1-384.png

gensnh-0-1-276.png

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