Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Re, gefs, N/W strong pressure anomaly on the control run

The GEM is similar with very strong heights 1070mb over Greenland

 both well into fl though but loving this chart 

5D76FA9E-BB1A-4E8C-B709-3F68A06CA034.thumb.png.9c80d24332470d5ea0dadfc1a4195e4a.png3BF83B18-BF5F-4960-802D-E9DA550D507B.thumb.jpeg.c91f843c1038e8302fce107e3ff0ea03.jpeg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Check out perturbation 21 of the GFS ensembles... very cold chart this is. Unlikely to come off though

gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.d9035dadfe87e7526c0aeb8cf2d869c0.png   gens-21-0-216.thumb.png.c0a2bc1d0bc184959cda7ebbbbb9050d.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Some incredibly blocked charts coming up!  It's been 10 years since that incredible December, perhaps due another good one?

Don’t forget the first half of November was pretty zonal as I recall with little sign on the public nwp of what was to come until we got to early part of November and a gfs op picked it all up 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The 12z GEM is showing the cold snap taking place further east from this mornings run...

gem-0-234.thumb.png.2a4f938852b43aab84b38750e1251202.png   gem-1-234.thumb.png.e713b0883210742dbd36a76af38517b7.png

And here's the NH view @240:

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.1c4ed4a2ab2bf109835f9913b4542e6a.png

Could be quite chilly if this was to come off and it wouldn't surprise me either if there would be snow down to lower levels on this chart.

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I’d say the odds of a cold or colder November look significantly better than average at the moment! Some very nice charts and forecasts around at the moment!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here's the GFS 12Z's take on November 15: h500slp.png

And here's the same day in 2010: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101115.gif

SHEET!

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, and next chart, setup is 4 months too late!

ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

Quite the chart isn't it? That HP kind of stalls there as well throughout the run. Just imagine if it was summer, that would produce a few days of very warm and hot weather! Quite reminiscent of August this year.

Summer needs to come fast

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
38 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Here's the GFS 12Z's take on November 15: h500slp.png

And here's the same day in 2010: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101115.gif

SHEET!

I couldn’t get that link to open ? Just in case anybody else had the same problem.....but it could be just me

gfs-2010111512-0-6_xxw6.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

I couldn’t get that link to open ? Just in case anybody else had the same problem.....but it could be just me

gfs-2010111512-0-6_xxw6.png

 

 

No, neither could I... Hence the reference to bed linen!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
22 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

No, neither could I... Hence the reference to bed linen!

opens for me, mind you I'm not on one of those phones

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Frankly I’m surprised by the way the GEFS 12z mean / GFS 12z op show such a relatively short settled spell followed by a return to unsettled considering how bullish Exeter are now about a prolonged settled outlook until late November but there are some nice looking 12z members and the ECM 12z op shows high pressure eventually dominant and I stick by what I said this morning about a predominantly settled outlook too!!!☀️

DB2332FF-F411-479C-8117-6F1BF0D63D78.thumb.png.2d53bd4a5d727673e8c817cdc7f38dc5.png6C7EABBD-0BC8-4FEE-94B3-E4B24750599C.thumb.png.d18034507118862e17b6b8c41f2c677c.png0F9E0693-3DE3-4C69-A92D-00D175D9DC9E.thumb.png.f6bc4e2d9272a20f017d4b081a883a26.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs 18z is a lot more amplified than the 12z

latest at 294 v's 300,lets see where she goes.

gfsnh-0-294.thumb.png.a1b3acb744390e395daa4a517dd227aa.pnggfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.800d13db293f5bd55ee550da314ce395.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

anim_tri3.gif

On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM really hot on high pressure at higher latitudes in recent runs - could be a chilly mid month

The op run agrees  this morning . Lovely ending and few frames later would be a boom . 

2ED4A019-D2E6-477B-8F18-09BBD252BF23.png

9DABDB72-FA64-42D4-83FE-56D3E656408C.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
18 minutes ago, IDO said:

The 0z run from GFS now showing UK height rises:

anim_tri3.gif

On this run, the settled spell looks promising, D5-D14! Looks like the GFS joins the ECM in resolving that cut-off low and it avoids that reconnect to the westerly arm of the jet, allowing further HP to push in. How these blocks mid to high latitude manifest may lead to some pretty NH profiles:

D16 (FWIW): gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.c0624b93f8c17042085e646e437eaaad.png

This continues to be fascinating (frost and sunlight are perfectly acceptable to me, anything more only a bonus), remarkable that the modelling from a month ago remains on track (for now)... 

Part of my interest in the models thread isn't to wish a specific weather pattern (despite my own preferences and bias) but rather to see what skill the models perform at. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Hello all for another start of silly season. I’m out of hibernation because there’s a small chance I’ll have to change the year on my username. Here’s hoping I will with my first cherry picked GEFS of the season

High 5

 

67ED200F-668B-4FE4-B6C9-E1C061710F5E.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

8C488091-6C3B-47E6-B8C4-68348941B6FD.thumb.jpeg.bd5913cdff329a007b9f9071f98868b8.jpeg

Epic day 10 ECM today! Just look at that block....PV nowhere to be seen. It’s getting near the interesting time now!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

8C488091-6C3B-47E6-B8C4-68348941B6FD.thumb.jpeg.bd5913cdff329a007b9f9071f98868b8.jpeg

Epic day 10 ECM today! Just look at that block....PV nowhere to be seen. It’s getting near the interesting time now!

Yes great start today and hopefully will continue. Great chart from ec be it ten days. Given the current doom and gloom weather and covid - 19 certainly raised my spirits even if its only for a while

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...