Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Tim Bland]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looking less and less settled Tim isn’t it?

 

BFTP

Perhaps, but i’m not seeing the “serious storm conditions” you were forecasting? Looks like normal autumn to me As I said ‘there’s always a few deep depressions in autumn  

Edited October 26, 2020 by Tim Bland

[bluearmy]

Ecm op continues to run a split vortex event days 8-10 which drives deep cold into c Russia and could provide e Europe with an early v cold shot if the euro high ends up becoming scandi ish  .....the gfsp also continues to show an unhappy vortex as week two progresses. Caution for coldies is that we’ve seen November show this in the past before December fires it up ! 

[Eagle Eye]

amazing model here looks like a very opposing model. 

[mb018538]

A quiet bonfire night in the offing going by GFS, ECM and GEM this morning.

NOAA anoms showing this too:

[Tim Bland]

1040mb High for early November! Must be a rarity! 

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm op continues to run a split vortex event days 8-10 which drives deep cold into c Russia and could provide e Europe with an early v cold shot if the euro high ends up becoming scandi ish  .....the gfsp also continues to show an unhappy vortex as week two progresses. Caution for coldies is that we’ve seen November show this in the past before December fires it up ! 

Geographically speaking,( and I know you watch the NH closely) Urals worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks Blue .

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

A quiet bonfire night in the offing going by GFS, ECM and GEM this morning.

NOAA anoms showing this too:

bonfire night cancelled locally, totally unprecedented ...

But yes, a quiter period early November beckons looking at 00z data..

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Hope you are all well! 

Lovely end to the latest ECM run as posted/mentioned above.

 

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies: 02/11 to 06/12.

Weekly breakdown below:

02/11 to 08/11

 

09/11 to 15/11

 

16/11 to 22/11

 

23/11 to 29/11

 

30/11 to 06/12 (My personal favourite)

 

Signal there for a below average November and a cold start to December! 

Met Office outlook also mentions below average temperatures in November...

Are we on the cusp of a cold spell in November and December? Or are these long range outlooks/models absolute cannon fodder? 

Interesting viewing at least and hope from a seasonal Autumn/Winter lover perspective. 

All the best to you all! 

[northwestsnow]

^^

Last frame perhaps suggestive of PM airflow( mid Atlantic ridge) with some early season snowfall for elevated NW Britain ...perhaps.. 

[Frosty.]

The Anticyclonic signal is growing stronger by the day..it’s looking increasingly likely that high pressure will be dominating most..or even all of the u k from the second half of next week onwards which will be great news for the November fog index!!!! ? 

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

 ECM 06Z @ 192 hrs

Good to see the 1045 HP modelled on the ECM 06z for 4th Nov. ( GFS and GEM are largely similar )

A strong chance of an anticyclonic spell coming up towards bonfire night and beyond as many have also said.

Chances of some seasonal fog and frost i hope

[MP-R]

It’s quite ironic that an anticyclone is being progged for bonfire night for the first time since... perhaps 2006?... when many bonfire night events won’t be going ahead. Nevertheless, it’d be most welcome especially if sunny. The 2006 one was a cold high after a preceding northerly but the arrival of next week’s doesn’t draw in any cold air ahead of it so it would likely take a few days to become properly cold.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run deep in the realms of fl...

northern Europe into the freezer would be a good start,now can we tap into that cold air?,i wouldn't bet my house on it

[DavidS]

29 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run deep in the realms of fl...

northern Europe into the freezer would be a good start,now can we tap into that cold air?,i wouldn't bet my house on it

Yes would be a great start indeed. A cold pool to our north and east, was very much missing last winter.

[northwestsnow]

Typically 6z provides a very festive Bonfire night in the year crowds cannot gather with temps probably not far from zero by 9pm on the 5th.

Decidedly chilly elsewhere too  - OK its a long way out but if HP is involved as looks likely, its not out of the question...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps, but i’m not seeing the “serious storm conditions” you were forecasting? Looks like normal autumn to me As I said ‘there’s always a few deep depressions in autumn  

That’s the 8th, and there’s still potential  but still FI 

HP to build in afterwards looks a decent bet but not beginning of Nov.

BFTP

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Typically 6z provides a very festive Bonfire night in the year crowds cannot gather with temps probably not far from zero by 9pm on the 5th.

Decidedly chilly elsewhere too  - OK its a long way out but if HP is involved as looks likely, its not out of the question...

Bitterly cold snowy Xmas too when we’re in full lockdown?

 

BFTP

[Les Penniston]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bitterly cold snowy Xmas too when we’re in full lockdown?

 

BFTP

That would be bliss

[johnholmes]

26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bitterly cold snowy Xmas too when we’re in full lockdown?

 

BFTP

One day you might just be right, one day!

 

[Tim Bland]

44 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That’s the 8th, and there’s still potential  but still FI 

HP to build in afterwards looks a decent bet but not beginning of Nov.

BFTP

 

so that’s your definition of ‘serious storm conditions’ for early November? Looks like slack winds in the south east & showers and average wind speeds (for this time of the year) for the rest, Certainly not stormy! Perhaps the far north / west Scotland and even for here it’s quite average for the time of year ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

One day you might just be right, one day!

 

John it was a joke as some could see

 

BFTP

Edited October 27, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

so that’s your definition of ‘serious storm conditions’ for early November? Looks like slack winds in the south east & showers and average wind speeds (for this time of the year) for the rest, Certainly not stormy! Perhaps the far north / west Scotland and even for here it’s quite average for the time of year ?

I think that hours later it would bring a lot more than that.... certainly not Hp building from the south.... 

 

BFTP

Edited October 27, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Tim Bland]

On this run the UK high becomes a scandi high and we pull in a short easterly. Unfortunately it’s a bit early in the season and no real cold to tap into. Could end up with a PM northwesterly flow after though. 
 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Snipe removed

[BlueHedgehog074]

Indeed! The GFS 12Z continues with a similar scenario to the 06Z run: the Azores High comes to have a party over the UK for a time from around mid-week next week. Maybe one to keep an eye on if this possible trend continues.

 

Apart from the above post, this is a reminder this is the Model Output Discussion thread. Any more off topic posts, and you’ll be put in isolation.. in our secret underground prison! Oh, and your post could vanish!

[LRD]

So, gone is the previously progged 'heatwave' high building from the south to be replaced by a cooler high building in from the West - with some cold air possibly trapped underneath it

Foggy and frosty would be nice and autumnal 

Got to say if this comes off bravo to the Met Office. They've been banging the 'settling down' drum for a while now

Edited October 27, 2020 by LRD