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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 hour ago, Weather vane said:

Not sure why there is such optimism for the ECMs warm end of month, which is still 9-10 days away. All models indicating a possobly nasty low in a weeks time, which could essily scupper a subsequent settled spell. GFS, Icon indicate it stays unsettled and cold for months end.

There's nothing wrong with being optomistic if there are hints of fine weather?

Also, using GFS and Icon to support your view is not very wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just a quickie from moi, not wanting to sound pretentious or anything!..looking at the ECM 12z op, high pressure does begin to build in during the later frames and temperatures start to recover by day 10...as for the GEFS 12z...on balance there’s still a decent signal that our weather could settle down during the first few days of November but the position / orientation of the anticyclone would make a huge difference to the surface conditions..actually I do sound pretentious don’t I?

583D3284-7FF2-4BD7-B12E-75335026A809.thumb.png.f80727e597cc66ea1e67e30351ab5177.png69F7FBD0-1DD6-4EF7-906D-4B19D38AFA61.thumb.png.e61be7a8eb321d4fdb03ccbff2f0d670.pngE35F2CA7-A282-4102-A53F-F515CF7BC648.thumb.png.085b5d3cad43cc97cf5a6e6a0ed49a56.png90890EB5-1082-466B-9B2E-BACF04B138B5.thumb.png.1dc58bdd053b3f08ff5d8f0fe9a6d6d2.png3E54B77F-7CFA-4093-BBAD-5612257EE5E3.thumb.png.a697502491694341a050f04964187c9d.png599AE96B-96DF-4796-A969-2721CD4B47C8.thumb.png.f72b30dc5adec3e88aca5da040e52331.png7E2D5D18-FF96-4684-8020-A4BF98610539.thumb.png.e3b372d5e55850962559d3ce70b375c3.png3522AF4D-7760-4E3B-8901-2B4E24EBC57B.thumb.png.4defb8fac7fa6121b7ba35e12a0d08f6.png82684130-0EE6-4418-B924-AE0524F5DC32.thumb.png.183ffadb6ce34948165123908e836590.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

There's nothing wrong with being optomistic if there are hints of fine weather?

Also, using GFS and Icon to support your view is not very wise.

Aye, hate FI but 2nd run on trot showing a decent end to Oct

ECM1-240.GIF?21-0

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is flying the flag on its own still. Unusual to see quite this level of sustained divergence at day 9/10! Who will win this battle? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Just seen the 12z ECM... what a peach of a run! Certainly not as warm as it was showing this morning but it is still showing some very fine weather on offer at day 10!!

1800194087_ECM1-240(7).thumb.gif.223f37931078e416f9feff9707f67c23.gif   1387934735_ECM0-240(5).thumb.gif.0fd58e0235b2418ad296558be8708a45.gif

Edited by Zak M
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Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
25 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

There's nothing wrong with being optomistic if there are hints of fine weather?

Also, using GFS and Icon to support your view is not very wise.

All for optimism, but 8-9 days out is a lot this time of year, esp with a big low possibly barrelling in. I know people diss GFS but I thought Icon has more street cred. Though, like you, I'd love forcthe ECM forecast to come good. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 hours ago, Newberryone said:

 I don’t anticipate the Ecm backing down on this more settled theme now going into Nov.

You were right, perhaps the ECM is the right horse to back / form horse ?...Or am I talking a load of old pony?

597D530C-B46D-48CC-802C-E21423583A3B.thumb.gif.b17ff6db12ce424282a3975a7046b4e5.gif7C11A0DA-9A83-41E6-B7D3-4CA034D92026.jpeg.8f7938bd6c2e5fad53a291975604c0ed.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
36 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just seen the 12z ECM... what a peach of a run! Certainly not as warm as it was showing this morning but it is still showing some very fine weather on offer at day 10!!

1800194087_ECM1-240(7).thumb.gif.223f37931078e416f9feff9707f67c23.gif   1387934735_ECM0-240(5).thumb.gif.0fd58e0235b2418ad296558be8708a45.gif

It’s generally not great I’m afraid cloudy and bit meh I think we’re more likely to experience milder weather in the here and now next week looking less mild on more recent runs from ECM, GFS and UKMO with more Pm air.

9876A5C9-8CA7-4631-9486-5F0EEF51F7D0.thumb.png.abcbd84c58240754192269735fac205c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Reliable timeframe, all models showing a very unsettled atlantic driven pattern, further low pressure systems and fronts bringing heavy rain and something we haven't seen much of so far this autumn the first gales, nothing untoward, indeed it's what we should expect in late October.

Longer term divergence between GFS and ECM, GFS as often does maintains a powerful jet and atlantic influence with yet more wind and rain, ECM showing the azores high gaining the upper hand and ridging north, to bring a settled mild end to October.

As a few others have said, important to take an overview of the northern hemispheric pattern, I'm seeing battle lines drawn over east scandi/far west russia thanks to strong heights in Ural region fending off the atlantic attacks.. warm air advection here could mean cold air advection NW Europe down the line...

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

My thoughts are far from warmth, anyone worried about potential serious storm conditions....could be a couple rattling in with early Nov of real watch territory 

 

BFTP

I don’t think early Nov will bring with it the potential for any disruptive weather as I’m quietly confident heights will have risen considerably from the south by then. However, Tue 27th Oct is possibly one to watch with the potential in this instance for some explosive cyclogenesis

3E2A9555-A084-4EAE-B9CC-A5D115B67C5E.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

There seems to have been an eastward correction on the HP cell the ECM has been constantly showing this morning...

1782382954_ECM1-240(8).thumb.gif.22bbcb76d287b65a06f2210232cd422f.gif   851050995_ECM0-240(6).thumb.gif.8f3a7290cbcca4a7d2c6d4f4b35a1e0c.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
16 minutes ago, Zak M said:

There seems to have been an eastward correction on the HP cell the ECM has been constantly showing this morning...

1782382954_ECM1-240(8).thumb.gif.22bbcb76d287b65a06f2210232cd422f.gif   851050995_ECM0-240(6).thumb.gif.8f3a7290cbcca4a7d2c6d4f4b35a1e0c.gif

image.thumb.png.263e2f41023e75286055da17954b4d23.png

Certainly not as amplified as the vast majority of clusters were on the 12z last night for the 1st November. Will have to see where today's 00z sits in the pack. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.edc9c21d679dee611f983ceb63553985.pngimage.thumb.png.7e04251c1cec408f2544884a46114d45.png

Still very difficult to predict the extent of any high pressure influence at this stage. So much uncertainty. ECM Op was on the high side once again.

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Thursday 22 October 2020

 

So what to make of changes since Monday in the 500 mb anomaly charts?

Ec-gfs and both have changed the shape, and to an extent, the depth (-ve) heights of the trough; the part over n America has been rounded out as has that of the European trough, so we now have a full on predicted Atlantic flow. As it gets to the uk area then there are differences between them in just how +ve heights are and where any ridge is. Ec shows more emphasis over western Europe and again out of northern Europe/Russia, extending somewhat towards Greenland.

Noaa has actually all through the week kept a not far from the Monday chart out to last evening. Positions and intensities of both ridges and troughs are not too different now to Monday (Sunday evening). Quite often Noaa does maintain more continuity than the other two, especially Gfs which is the most prone to changes.

In terms of UK weather then 6-10 and 8-14, if we lean more towards Noaa than the other two, suggests neither deep cold or late heat, a relatively normal autumnal spell, temporary surface ridges behind low pressure systems, often, moving relatively quickly over the Atlantic, and now and then giving a pretty deep surface low close by or even over the NW’ern half of the UK. Gales would seem a likely happening now and then, especially for the coastal areas in the west and NW especially. A rough NW-SE split seems likely.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

remember these charts will change with each new issue

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

image.thumb.png.6252e619df41c091e841c781273b50ea.png20oc maybe is it just me or has somone whos job it is to make the year normal pressed the random button. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just had a look at the GEFS 6z and I still say there’s a chance of heights encroaching from the south during early November so perhaps becoming more settled, at least across the south but generally speaking we seem too be looking at an Atlantic driven pattern with depressions speeding across the Atlantic separated by brief ridges of high pressure bringing calmer interludes (especially further s / se  but a risk of some vigorous lows (especially further n / nw) from time to time (explosive cyclogenesis)...a traditional mix of autumn air masses, ergo, Tm / rPm / Pm. ? ☔️ 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Looking through the 12z GFS, it's showing a mixed bag of brief settled and unsettled conditions almost anywhere. In FI, however, the GFS is hinting at a cold shot for Scotland, with the -8c isotherm in the Shetland Islands, and perhaps some snow on higher ground for northern parts.

gfs-0-366.thumb.png.78c7ca8b39202cff7214366f78859cfb.png   gfs-1-366.thumb.png.d23a1a82912af6420bbf07075c739c04.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

The key player seems to be Hurricane Epsilon which is an intense beast which may cause Bermuda some problems but mercifully is nowhere near any other land.

It keeps a fair strength as it transitions to an extra-tropical feature and is absorbed into and causes severe deepening in a run-of-the-mill North Atlantic LP. This tropically-enhanced storm becomes a significant feature introducing plenty of energy and throwing the HP forward into Europe. 

The central pressure seems to be around 950MB (ECM, GEM) or 945 MB (GFS OP) but that strength of storm generates secondary features which can themselves deepen strongly as the sub-tropical and polar airmasses meet giving the UK rain and strong winds.

It's called autumn.

One of the consequences of the infusion of energy is to pull the jet north and that allows HP to build across southern Britain and NW Europe and we see this hinted at on GFS as it has been from Exeter. I wonder if further into November we'll see the Azores HP cell and the Eurasian HP bloc dominate with the UK left in a ridge between the two with light winds (fog, frost under clear skies) and sparkling mid-autumn days. Often the HP transits to the east with time as the Atlantic eventually breaks through from the west. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The 12z ECM screams a stunning start to November!!

337306756_ECM1-240(9).thumb.gif.a3d6303dd1ae437bd09ba0f3fe40d8ed.gif   1198837391_ECM0-240(7).thumb.gif.fb91421da4682f0750bb36fb63d10c24.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

The 12z ECM screams a stunning start to November!!

337306756_ECM1-240(9).thumb.gif.a3d6303dd1ae437bd09ba0f3fe40d8ed.gif   1198837391_ECM0-240(7).thumb.gif.fb91421da4682f0750bb36fb63d10c24.gif

Aye Zak, about 5th or so EC on the bounce now for deepest FI

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