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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, definitely chances of warm days increases now, with the Atlantic dominating, unlike late Sept/early Oct, could feel decent if mild sectors last say for a day

Just ordered in some more logs for our log burner, guess they wont be needed for a while, lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
4 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I really do hope so. Most likely though, the models will change and we will end up getting boring high pressure instead. Still, we shall have to wait and see! 

Well judging by the  240hr chart from the 12z ECM that seems to have been a very accurate prediction indeed. Can't help but feel an air of despondency coming on..

ecm 30th oct 2020.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Interesting. Last nights ECM OP was in the larger cluster that built the ridge in:

image.thumb.png.917a78d19649cc0d6aea64c0a13f50ba.png

GFS and GEM OP this morning have zero interest:

image.thumb.png.1d9aa1408058b72a8b1c411ce2a99065.pngimage.thumb.png.972517471dbbb9f9d563c7cb61d84bfe.png

There was certainly ensemble interest from the GFS last night in following an ECM style evolution:

image.thumb.png.788daebc20bebb603850e428f254060b.png

We will have to see what the morning ECM and ensembles look like. If a ridge doesn't build in the 9/10 day timeframe, i think you can say goodbye to another week of unsettled weather.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Interesting. Last nights ECM OP was in the larger cluster that built the ridge in:

image.thumb.png.917a78d19649cc0d6aea64c0a13f50ba.png

GFS and GEM OP this morning have zero interest:

image.thumb.png.1d9aa1408058b72a8b1c411ce2a99065.pngimage.thumb.png.972517471dbbb9f9d563c7cb61d84bfe.png

There was certainly ensemble interest from the GFS last night in following an ECM style evolution:

image.thumb.png.788daebc20bebb603850e428f254060b.png

We will have to see what the morning ECM and ensembles look like. If a ridge doesn't build in the 9/10 day timeframe, i think you can say goodbye to another week of unsettled weather.

More of the fi nwp picking up on that change back to higher heights - although we are likely to see some swinging back and forth re the onset of this 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
24 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Very warm end to the 12z ECM... no signs of any cold weather to come yet!

990124678_ECM1-240(6).thumb.gif.20b8da4c838d913a4723494bd0af9225.gif   2115430463_ECM0-240(4).thumb.gif.02bcf9b6a7450d64add315d33d1f027b.gif

Yes Zak, was just going to post day 9/10! Very similar to last night's run, with potentially a very mild and pleasant last couple of days of October if this verifies. Raw data shows temps in the high teens on Friday in the east. Without other model support it's far from a given at the moment.

image.thumb.png.363b3dad07eac4f99681e27c764cc528.pngimage.thumb.png.97f673d8c1116d739eb65660ce953d9f.png

At the same timeframe of day 10, none of the GFS ensemble members have pressure above the 1025mb mark - ECM has in excess of 1030mb. Ex-Epsilon no doubt casuing the issues this time.


image.thumb.png.e1c25ef0b32765f4a0a87afd8a070cc3.png
 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
51 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Very warm end to the 12z ECM... no signs of any cold weather to come yet!

990124678_ECM1-240(6).thumb.gif.20b8da4c838d913a4723494bd0af9225.gif   2115430463_ECM0-240(4).thumb.gif.02bcf9b6a7450d64add315d33d1f027b.gif

I hope to christ we dont see many of those charts over the coming months.Thankfully they are at days 9 and 10 so will most likely change.

Would a chart like that not produce plenty of cloud for many coming in from the Atlantic. Mild and dull a weather  enthusiasts dream eh? lol

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

More of the fi nwp picking up on that change back to higher heights - although we are likely to see some swinging back and forth re the onset of this 

I'm still gunning for a transition to more settled weather returning early November.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.6bac27074d0373ac51251d8af251f53d.pngimage.thumb.png.4642353fda8657556559dcb8131c67a3.png

As expected - an outlier this morning. An improvement of sorts in the offing, but maybe not to the extent of the ECM Op. A 25mb pressure spread by day 10...more runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm still gunning for a transition to more settled weather returning early November.

 

Well the ECM weeklies back this up, indicates more settled, initialized Monday 19th: image.thumb.png.d64df0d75e98f3577bad71b69c2144b7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm still gunning for a transition to more settled weather returning early November.

 

Hi mate I'm well aware your after something a little akin to Autumn regarding weather conditions. So here goes... The latest EC Weeklies keep thing rather unsettled over the next week or so, but definite signs of High Pressure building towards end of the month or early November! This would bring sunny spells and an increasing risk of fog and frost for many... Especially where High pressure centres, and that looks likely towards more Southern parts... Beyond this we possibly keep things on the settled side towards the South, and this continues towards mid month. We then see signs of more unsettled conditions emerging from the NW... at least for a time!!! And hey presto again we signs of High pressure building from the SW towards the end of the month, again bringing perhaps settled and potentially chilly conditions with frost likely... All a long way off, but that's how it looks to be shaping up at present... 

Keep safe and well all of you.. ☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 hour ago, Downburst said:

Well the ECM weeklies back this up, indicates more settled, initialized Monday 19th: image.thumb.png.d64df0d75e98f3577bad71b69c2144b7.png

GEFS also similar this morning

gefs-nov.png

Meantime though, some stormy options popping up for later next week..

next-week1.png next-week2.png next-week3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

ECM brings us our first Bartlett of the season next week, let's get awful charts like that out the way before winter arrives.

The ECM at +240 looks like so many bad winter nightmares.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

image.thumb.png.9fae84dea92c52ddb632eecbc640cfd6.png

Some warmth approaching next week1146746764_ecmt850.240(1).thumb.png.8072f6f59233a98014a2dc74c4a08bb2.png

Before on Saturday looking better than any of the spanish plume chances through the summer, no coldnin sight. 

ecmt850.168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That’s a pretty amazing day 10 ECM 0z op today..almost gives you a warm glow just looking at it!...564 dam on Halloween would surely be very exceptional on the cusp of November?!!!  

41CB7851-13F1-4011-9781-F3A7963FE8AE.thumb.png.b9b83718c1adbae749a27a31f1fd0248.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
35 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

That’s a pretty amazing day 10 ECM 0z op today..almost gives you a warm glow just looking at it!...564 dam on Halloween would surely be very exceptional on the cusp of November?!!!  

41CB7851-13F1-4011-9781-F3A7963FE8AE.thumb.png.b9b83718c1adbae749a27a31f1fd0248.png

That looks absolutely spiffing, old chapimage.png.2c52c3b431d356217a1ae953a32355e7.png:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

last day of Oct I'm sure recently has broken 20 degrees before

archives-2014-10-31-12-0.pngarchives-2017-10-31-12-0.png

Yep, record for the 31st is 23.6c set in 2014. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well, another gfs op run that has zero interest in following the ecm.

 

71953C8B-FCD2-4051-9CFE-4C2A22749DBA.thumb.jpeg.d8348bcc7df97344dee909931086af6b.jpeg

ECM op had 2/3 support this morning. One to watch - gfs much more like the smaller very unsettled cluster.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

ECM brings us our first Bartlett of the season next week, let's get awful charts like that out the way before winter arrives.

The ECM at +240 looks like so many bad winter nightmares.

Andy

But it isn’t winter yet, my view is the ECM 0z is exactly what we want to see if you look NH view:

40D994D3-3E45-40F0-A088-C510F19C3CE7.thumb.png.118a67e4d7da6b2f4dfeb6491dc8611c.png

Forget the UK, look at the heights in scandi/Russia - this will inhibit the strat PV forming which is necessary if we are pinning hopes on a front loaded winter (as many seem to be).  Different weather for the UK for sure, but GFS and GEM 12z also both consistent on heights somewhere in the scandi/Russian region:

47EBE84E-81ED-4BDD-B133-A17E1D7E222D.thumb.png.6b50450ffab4e86dda3b135bc2e27196.png300F2F13-0BDC-442C-8982-FCC702A51DEB.thumb.png.820aea8864cd593f46b568b7ec8baf28.png

From a NH weather patterns perspective this isn’t bad at this point.  I haven’t yet looked at NH sea ice and snow cover extent, lost the links now I’m working from home, maybe someone could comment on those?  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well, another gfs op run that has zero interest in following the ecm.

 

71953C8B-FCD2-4051-9CFE-4C2A22749DBA.thumb.jpeg.d8348bcc7df97344dee909931086af6b.jpeg

ECM op had 2/3 support this morning. One to watch - gfs much more like the smaller very unsettled cluster.

As is nearly always the case one can surely expect the gfs to fall in line with the Ecm. I don’t anticipate the Ecm backing down on this more settled theme now going into Nov.

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Posted
  • Location: Laois, Ireland
  • Location: Laois, Ireland

Not sure why there is such optimism for the ECMs warm end of month, which is still 9-10 days away. All models indicating a possobly nasty low in a weeks time, which could essily scupper a subsequent settled spell. GFS, Icon indicate it stays unsettled and cold for months end.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

My thoughts are far from warmth, anyone worried about potential serious storm conditions....could be a couple rattling in with early Nov of real watch territory 

 

BFTP

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