Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[Methuselah]

So, the 'signs' are there (aren't there always?) for a cold, blocked snowladen winter...?

But, the all important question must be: Will it be front-loaded, back-loaded, spring-loaded or, as is usually the case simply un-loaded?!

More runs needed!

[Eagle Eye]

Charts looking good so far expecting a cold and wet autumn. 

Edited October 17, 2020 by hamilton and weather fan 1

[bluearmy]

Looks like a big scrussian upper ridge in the 8/14 day period. In tandem with the dumbelling Atlantic ridge, we are likely to be close to the trough extension 

also, signs that the strengthening  vortex may be keen to exchange back and forth between Canada and Siberia ......that will rev up the Atlantic jet enough to keep the troughs coming ..... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely touch added to this forum with the extra funny face icons... Now more posters can laugh at my ridiculous posts..

Firstly great posting in here as per usual.. Secondly a quick run down of the prospects for the next few weeks, courtesy of the EC46.. Unsettled sums up next and towards the end of the month.. Signs of High pressure building and more especially for areas further south come the start of the new month. Infact periods of calmer conditions could continue through till the mid November period in many places further South. Further North tends to be more prone to unsettled conditions from the NW at times but even here expect some better spells. Towards November's end, Low pressure looks to potentially gain the upper hand once again, but this is a hell of a long way off.. Any other signs? Well as you would expext fog and frost will be a good shout in this more settled start to November, and I'm sure there are a fair few of you that would welcome that. 

Pressure looks relatively high towards Greenland as well come the latter part of next month, and boy are those temperatures dropping like a stone there, with - 30c being highlighted, also colder Conditions developing over Scandy and into Russia... Very early days all of this, but I still feel we could be looking at an early shot of Winter this year... For how long and how severe, will be very much up for debate at this early stage. 

Happy hunting folks and keep safe.

[Frosty.]

I agree with Matt, great to see the additional funny faces etc etc ..also nice to see a more settled end to Oct / start to Nov on the Gfs 6z op!

[Frosty.]

Oh my...for sure the ECM 0z ens mean shows an unsettled extended outlook..but surely that’s within the scope of probability for the time of year..hmm..hmm.hmm?..anyway, this is still autumn..if you want winter, check out the Levi Finland cam..yeah it’s snowingggg..for the u k..winter normally starts on dec 1st!!!!

[Frosty.]

Ok gang, do I want snaw?..of course I want snaw...but currently this is what the mods.. I mean the models show!....for the record, I hope the upcoming winter delivers, I’ve suffered, like every other coldie through the diabolical recent so called winters but I have a feeling..with solar minima and all. that winter 2020 / 21 will be somewhat better!...in the meantime, perhaps some high pressure could be ours in late autumn?!!!!

[Zak M]

A 935mb low is being modelled by the GFS at day 10. 

Edited October 17, 2020 by Zak M

[SMU]

Very interesting UKMO 120-144 tonight > a long way away from the GFS with a blocking ridge buildibg North sending the Jet SE underneath...

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Very interesting UKMO 120-144 tonight > a long way away from the GFS with a blocking ridge buildibg North sending the Jet SE underneath...

Steve Is right, T+144 Ukmo 12h looks blocked....but if u want instant gratification..check out the Levi YouTube cam for your snow fix!!..and failing that, the Santa Claus village tomoz!!!!!!!

 

[Gowon]

56 minutes ago, Zak M said:

A 935mb low is being modelled by the GFS at day 10. 

That chart is ugly! Thank goodness the GFS is not a very reliable..

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Steve Is right, T+144 Ukmo 12h looks blocked....but if u want instant gratification..check out the Levi YouTube cam for your snow fix!!..and failing that, the Santa Claus village tomoz!!!!!!!

 

But what if it's ends up like a blocked drain, Jon... a load of poo!

Edited October 17, 2020 by General Cluster

[Zak M]

The polar vortex is starting to ramp up by the looks of it. Loads of purples appearing on there now.

   

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Very interesting UKMO 120-144 tonight > a long way away from the GFS with a blocking ridge buildibg North sending the Jet SE underneath...

GEM also showing the ‘slider low’ scenario many will be hoping for in the months ahead ...

[Frosty.]

OK..last one from me for a while..some of you will be pleased about that I’m sure..hmm?...anyway, perhaps high pressure could gain a foothold longer term according to the GEFS 12z!..time will reveal all!

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM also showing the ‘slider low’ scenario many will be hoping for in the months ahead ...

More grist to my mill although this upper ridge  is rather more solid than we’ve seen over the past weeks runs ......

[Zak M]

Well the 12z ECM shows some high pressure building with 12c uppers in the north and east in FI. If this was to be believed, then could we perhaps see something warmer and more settled for the south as we head into the end of October? 

   

Edited October 17, 2020 by Zak M

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well the 12z ECM shows some high pressure building with 12c uppers in the north and east in FI. If this was to be believed, then could we perhaps see something warmer and more settled as we head into the end of October? 

   

to me, looks like zonal power Atlantic? that chart warm ay, but next one will likely be pants

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM also showing the ‘slider low’ scenario many will be hoping for in the months ahead ...

Ah... Slidergate 2020-21.1?

[stodge]

Not quite sure what to make of the evening output. A lot seems to depend on an ex-hurricane finally allowing the Azores HP to ridge into Europe and re-aligning the trough positively toward month end and off goes the Atlantic express powered, as is often the case at this time of year, by energy from ex-tropical features.

[lassie23]

Still no fog, will it be another 'nothing to see here, move along', winter?

[Methuselah]

33 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Still no fog, will it be another 'nothing to see here, move along', winter?

Sounds like fog to me?

[damianslaw]

Too much variability in the models this evening in the medium timeframe - lots of uncertainty regarding influence of ex tropical storm system, in such situations always expect lots of chopping and changing until the system enters the north atlantic and it become perhaps clearer how things may pan out. GFS likely to be doing its usual overreaction to any signal of the atlantic moving it - does it all the time.

[Methuselah]

Here's the GFS 00Z for 2/11... nowt special, but (in contrast to the last two years) at least the 20C T850 isotherm is almost nowhere to be seen. And, if it's cold you're after, that cannae be a bad thing...?

    

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by General Cluster

[blizzard81]

Quite a big change on this morning's ECM op. Another warm end to October?