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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning. The key to any change for the start of next week will how the low forecast to develop along the Polar Front between Greenland and Iceland interacts with the uniformly modelled  Low pressure system to the SW of Britain. The alignment and progress of any Atlantic trough into the British Isles has yet really to be determined. The UK met Office seem to be heading with caution with forecast speed of advancement of fronts into Southern Britain. So a bit of caution as we look at the models past 144t this morning.

met.120.png

As i mentioned in the above post, far from a done deal for the forecast from early next week. The strong Arctic ridge ,I think is causing some problems in the Medium Range Models. Variable parameters , bring uncertainty in solutions as highlighted by the latest run from GFS out to 192 hours. Gone has the Iceland Low and trough formation link to the Low SW of Britain but a strengthening in the cold block to the NE of Scotland  by  the SWly progress of what is in effect the Arctic Front. So again prudent not to look much further than 144t  while the models get a grip with the rather unusual NH pressure pattern we are seeing at the moment.

C

GFSOPEU06_192_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just a quick one-

Just spotted this in GFS FI...negatively tilted Atlantic troughing. This is a VERY good sign to look out for as we approach November as it's a solid sign that the general pattern is predisposed to blocking at a higher latitude going forward...

image.thumb.png.21169cbf179513af499173af48ca8fdb.png

Ay..... and these charts also retain positive pressure anomalies to the north, could be interesting in the long run despite some milder weather next week.

 

cool outlook.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ECM 0z ensemble mean (as per the op) seems to have undergone some westward correction since last night which means the trough is further to the southwest and the warm air from the south can spread up across more of the u k...in the meantime, it’s an improving week, gradually becoming drier and brighter with lighter winds as pressure rises, normally at this time of year this would be a recipe for overnight / morning fog but there will probably be too much cloud floating around for that to be a problem but it can’t be ruled out where skies clear.
5035BCCD-50FB-4C88-BDAD-1D3A4DFE77B7.thumb.gif.13d26c9f0bbd438d8f3ad554fab7dc3a.gif0B68561C-51D3-4153-B6F3-21C022B4BEDA.thumb.gif.fcc6c8d4993dad8232830f6fd590d4f9.gif5936B0E3-4D06-44DA-9234-2EB6FB601BC9.thumb.gif.a1f91fc750d1c714b4c416b348cefe84.gif97708742-593B-4396-A035-3E72F605FE5D.thumb.gif.c997a8acf580841ff639407621afa3e8.gif30E1A098-9134-4702-B9AF-EA3A11E3CF04.thumb.gif.35b07c201cb1b6252b7803b8cb5f949c.gifD2E21C02-8CAA-4661-8616-30EBFD1DDF7E.thumb.gif.36a480aefa66b6aeda7a691f8a150a9d.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Models fairly well set out to 120 or so today, whats noticable is how far south the cold gets in Scandi V where it was originally predicted to be courtesy of that trough-

what wouldnt surprise me is more ridging in the gap ( red arrow ) moving NW towards Greenland, which may temper the warmth coming up from the south. The south Easterlies may be replaced by East or North Easterlies

These types of ridges are hard to model & dont get correctly resolved until 144>120...

 

C1ECC7B4-62ED-4ED5-868B-D88B48DE221D.jpeg

This is what i mentioned earlier steve!!could gather pace on the 12zs maybe!!

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

It seems certainty has gone out for the evening and left confusion in charge.

Relative unanimity among the models yesterday evening has been replaced by disagreement.

GEM has completely abandoned the LP to the SW and the warm S'ly scenario:

image.thumb.png.2b58252d01c76577bf8682160b49533d.png

What happens is the main LP moves too far SW - past the Azores - and the link to the northern LP breaks and the latter slips down across the British Isles.

image.thumb.png.7f4105561cc9837cc27970f2d3f003f5.png

ECM at the same time still on-board with the warm S'ly albeit, as we saw yesterday, the infusion of sub-tropical air from the south invigorates and deepens the LP which quickly pushes away any warmth.

image.thumb.png.c1aca3a14ea05c4e3e8dc217a89baee2.png

12Z GFS OP  at the same time. The thing that catches my eye is the LP sneaking between the two HP cells in the far west of the North Atlantic. That moves across and adds extra energy pushing the trough over the UK as part of a complex feature. 

Plenty still to resolve.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

If a few charts like these verify in late autumn, the daffodils will be sprouting in late nov / early dec!!!:shok:

9991811A-D201-4FA4-B0E3-B2ECBEFF387D.thumb.png.11bb33d79c50888ae0c01527d250af86.png0FDAEF28-770A-4F56-816D-93177A22627D.thumb.png.6651872d0740dd3ea85d11868dfd849c.png33CEC678-D57A-49EB-BD73-EC273A372D75.thumb.jpeg.d1195d17bcb7c52aef7ff32b99950e9b.jpeg8A56A86A-B25B-4305-90FA-415D7494AAEA.jpeg.d2e92621c308383ebbb15f8c6935717a.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

No warmth on ECM 12z had a maximum of 16C in London on Tuesday, quite a seismic shift from 00z more the case of milder nights, meaning things are a bit above average. We look to remain on cool side of jet going by polar blocking, seems increasingly likely the weather will become more unsettled next week, with polar maritime air so not really mild.

4A0631C2-A4DD-4E51-BA2D-B6E8531F275E.thumb.png.892555c7f40c4e971d1bf9ad6ef14dc1.pngD701D091-0460-4BB9-B628-C8305E23C1CD.thumb.png.a710c2d4e860a0efef52e7b8a4ac5363.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Absolutely fascinating output tonight. Here is the GFS at T+186, a highly unusual pattern. Great model watching to be had. 

C3E26F4A-0BD6-44AC-8A80-52DC91C82E7A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Morning,

The GFS seems to have pulled right away from the very mild weather coming in early to mid next week. 
Only a very small number of mild ensemble members for Tue/Wed, and the mean stays below the average.

image.thumb.png.1b99ea0517c7db3e55d6ad149f5aff83.pngimage.thumb.png.c61cdaf21f719fb5faee7d502884fd82.png



GEM and ICON still say yes:
image.thumb.png.1180f6494526125f5c59e9dceeb903d5.pngimage.thumb.png.2a71a07b032dc7cbc5da1e3b2b4ab977.png

ECM and UKMO (to a slightly lesser extent) too:

image.thumb.png.098bd68021359a84079b0b74ef7db57c.pngimage.thumb.png.e0711760c20f03a55307377014dcbbea.png

After this we look to enter a much more mobile, Atlantic driven pattern - with a NW/SE split setting up going by the 10 day ppn charts on ECM.

10 day rainfall totals over 100mm in parts of N Ireland, NW Scotland and NW England.....on the flip side, parts of East Anglia see 8-10mm. The classic UK pattern.

1410rain.thumb.jpg.e044a552e71bf9199ff24fea4af6b495.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Morning,

The GFS seems to have pulled right away from the very mild weather coming in early to mid next week. 
Only a very small number of mild ensemble members for Tue/Wed, and the mean stays below the average.

image.thumb.png.1b99ea0517c7db3e55d6ad149f5aff83.pngimage.thumb.png.c61cdaf21f719fb5faee7d502884fd82.png



GEM and ICON still say yes:
image.thumb.png.1180f6494526125f5c59e9dceeb903d5.pngimage.thumb.png.2a71a07b032dc7cbc5da1e3b2b4ab977.png

ECM and UKMO (to a slightly lesser extent) too:

image.thumb.png.098bd68021359a84079b0b74ef7db57c.pngimage.thumb.png.e0711760c20f03a55307377014dcbbea.png

After this we look to enter a much more mobile, Atlantic driven pattern - with a NW/SE split setting up going by the 10 day ppn charts on ECM.

10 day rainfall totals over 100mm in parts of N Ireland, NW Scotland and NW England.....on the flip side, parts of East Anglia see 8-10mm. The classic UK pattern.

1410rain.thumb.jpg.e044a552e71bf9199ff24fea4af6b495.jpg

Quick question, is there more confidence now in the GFS after the upgrade, as it wasn't that long ago there was a deluge of complaints about how poor it was, almost a long running joke? 

Just curious...ta

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Gone is the very warm southerlies for next week on gfs 06z and it now remains cold and crisp!!perfect!!just how it should be at this time of the year!!hardly any warm air on ukmo either!!ecm sweeps the warm air away a lot quicker compared to what it was showing yesterday!!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
3 hours ago, Griff said:

Quick question, is there more confidence now in the GFS after the upgrade, as it wasn't that long ago there was a deluge of complaints about how poor it was, almost a long running joke? 

Just curious...ta

As far as im concerned, no...  but no model is infalible.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow take a look at this from the GEFS 6z mean..anyone hoping for a long unsettled outlook MAY be disappointed..pleasant anticyclonic late October anyone?!!!:shok:☀️

1B3FCF48-8620-46DE-8288-ECF24E4053E6.thumb.png.f65b003a45bbfb70253c3ba50a39184d.pngFA9F2443-5188-450C-A263-E4BCD5C1AD04.thumb.png.a60f19daba6f4d296a1feceee6c83f11.png3772757D-C43B-40EE-AF6E-9D77B03F5133.thumb.png.ec66a473e2f52bfe8e2a181484ebd99e.png941943B3-FA92-47C4-894D-ED01F3E3D317.thumb.png.7f8f25970d0eefed980155478a738684.png14D84E9F-1C53-4AF5-92F1-CD354E23ED72.thumb.png.e301063a197b0cd23b7670e812f893b9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Gfs 12z continues the cold crisp theme!!and ukmo looks to be heading the same way!!very warm southerlies cancelled according those 2 models!!anyone notice ukmo all over the place last couple of days at 120 and 144 hours!!!really aint doing itself any good lol!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 12z continues the cold crisp theme!!and ukmo looks to be heading the same way!!very warm southerlies cancelled according those 2 models!!anyone notice ukmo all over the place last couple of days at 120 and 144 hours!!!really aint doing itself any good lol!!

Also gfs 12z looks better be it at 240 hrs ie blocking towards scan 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Both the Euro and UKMO have progressed to a more unsettled and cooler solution today however the GFS12z has taken things a step further and produces what in a month or two would be a truly incredible chart. 

A near complete undercut (i.e. Atlantic completely failing) with cool air coming back in and then an attempt to undercut a second low producing a Scandi High. No snow of course being October but cool, continental air.

spacer.png 

 

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On 13/10/2020 at 16:08, Steve Murr said:

Models fairly well set out to 120 or so today, whats noticable is how far south the cold gets in Scandi V where it was originally predicted to be courtesy of that trough-

what wouldnt surprise me is more ridging in the gap ( red arrow ) moving NW towards Greenland, which may temper the warmth coming up from the south. The south Easterlies may be replaced by East or North Easterlies

These types of ridges are hard to model & dont get correctly resolved until 144>120...

 

C1ECC7B4-62ED-4ED5-868B-D88B48DE221D.jpeg

Well not quite how I expected it but the net end result is the same > modelling swiftly moved from warm Southerlies to cold North Easterlies... 

So the decent synoptics continue..

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Well not quite how I expected it but the net end result is the same > modelling swiftly moved from warm Southerlies to cold North Easterlies... 

So the decent synoptics continue..

Steve we could see this gather pace over the next 24 hours!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM looks good but GFS is starting to show signs of the PV setting up shop in its usual spot ...Greenland

0FA744CB-44BD-487B-B9FB-E4DA2C0CD5D0.png

10A1F8FE-89D7-4855-B41F-72780929152B.png

Not at all bad to see the GFS trying with lowering heights around Greenland at this point. Greenland heights will do little to promote bottom up stratospheric disturbance but Siberian heights will.

Greenland heights are poor at keeping the trop disturbed and so Oct into Nov low heights there aren't a concern. Let's get heights there when it matters, later in Nov and into Dec.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Spoke to soon its joined gfs at 168 hours!!!colder!!!!

Certainly is pretty cold mate , for October anyway.

1B0DC520-E3A2-47B9-89AC-F1E68DCB2135.png

D05003D0-6D71-4415-8B29-2C77982DAE5B.png

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