Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Afternoon all, a couple of 70 hour weeks at work have curtailed my posting recently but just found enough time to peep at the clusters for D10 - looks precariously close to a west based -NAO, which puts the UK on the borderline of a cold Nly/NEly (snow for northern hills possible), or a warm S/SWly and pushing close to 20C as some are saying

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/10/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020101000_240.png

 

 Not bothered this early ......... a west based neg NAO late October would be no issue ......

the repeat performance as November progresses could well be of more interest as it would be unlikely to be an identical placement 

still plenty of eye candy on the NH profiles ..........the gfs parallel generally more fun that the op 

 

[Frosty.]

Northern Europe soon to get an early taste of winter according to the Gfs 12z operational...it’s not all about the u k...it’s the bigger picture I find interesting at this stage in autumn!!!!!!  

[SMU]

GEM continues the crazy charts - SW greenland under the WAA getting close to a +30c 850 Anomaly with the +20c isotherm on the southern tip. - Dont meed to check the records as that would be unheard of...

[Cheshire Freeze]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GEM continues the crazy charts - SW greenland under the WAA getting close to a +30c 850 Anomaly with the +20c isotherm on the southern tip. - Dont meed to check the records as that would be unheard of...

More than a whiff of October 2010 about the charts at present in regards to -AO

Compare that to October 2011 where we saw a completely different Arctic profile-

 

Edited October 10, 2020 by CreweCold

[blizzard81]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

More than a whiff of October 2010 about the charts at present in regards to -AO

Compare that to October 2011 where we saw a completely different Arctic profile-

 

October 2013 was very similar though and most know how that proceeding winter evolved. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

October 2013 was very similar though and most know how that proceeding winter evolved. 

Very brief though-

By month's end the TPV was pumped

There was very little forcing from the Siberian side too...

In contrast, the longer range modelling is pumping out scenarios such as this for month's end-

This morning's ECM was even more extreme-

Edited October 10, 2020 by CreweCold

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Very brief though-

By month's end the TPV was pumped

There was very little forcing from the Siberian side too...

In contrast, the longer range modelling is pumping out scenarios such as this for month's end-

This morning's ECM was even more extreme-

I agree. The medium to longer range modelling seems to be firming up on a more persistent negative AO signal for the rest of October. If this turns out correct then it certainly won't harm our winter prospects. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

At just day 6, early season cold being funnelled SW through Scandi-

 

[Mapantz]

Stick to current model output in here please folks.

There's a thread going for early Winter prospects/previous month & year comparisons.

Cheers.

[SMU]

The ECM is just a crazy output for October.

00z ECM was -4 ! this will be similar -

The most crazy chart ever.

- Polar blocking AO -4 

- Record positive heights SW of Greenland

- +22c Anomaly west of Greenland

- Warm plume up the eastern side of the US

- Deep snow with blizzards over the mid west

[ICE COLD]

Wowzers some of these charts are crazy . ECM T192 is crazy . Please keep em coming ECM

Edited October 10, 2020 by ICE COLD

[thunderpants]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Stick to current model output in here please folks.

There's a thread going for early Winter prospects/previous month & year comparisons.

Cheers.

Apoliges mapantz i think that was me.

[Zak M]

The 12z ECM offers some hints of an Indian Summer. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ECM is just a crazy output for October.

00z ECM was -4 ! this will be similar -

The most crazy chart ever.

- Polar blocking AO -4 

- Record positive heights SW of Greenland

- +22c Anomaly west of Greenland

- Warm plume up the eastern side of the US

- Deep snow with blizzards over the mid west

Also looking like nice westward progression of snow / cold 850s should we get lucky and tap into an E / NE flow  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, there’s a lot to keep an eye on, early wintry blast for parts of Northern Europe / Russia..and heat pumping north from Africa to Spain, to France and then southern u k...Indian summer anyone!

[Don]

43 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, there’s a lot to keep an eye on, early wintry blast for parts of Northern Europe / Russia..and heat pumping north from Africa to Spain, to France and then southern u k...Indian summer anyone!

If the cold can build to the east, I don’t mind an Indian summer.  As long as come December, that cold to the east is sent our way!

[swfc]

Great start to the day if great winter nhp synoptics are your thing. Looks to be a drier period coming with little sign of a west to east jet ie mobility. All good imo

[mb018538]

Certainly looking a fair bit drier for most areas than of late in the next 10 days. Much needed chance to dry off a bit!

[Neil Harris]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Certainly looking a fair bit drier for most areas than of late in the next 10 days. Much needed chance to dry off a bit!

I've just listened to a horse racing trainer pleading for more rain in the South west!! He's not going to get it then?

[damianslaw]

Models showing a fairly settled theme in the main once tomorrow' s rain is out of the way, thanks to heights developing strongly to the north and the jet becoming rather diffuse and weak in nature. The outcome is a chilly airflow from the north east, showery airstream for the SE and East, drier sunnier conditions further north west.

Patchy frost and fog could become a common feature in sheltered northern parts.

Longer term - no obvious signs of any major change, so a likely continuation of the cool theme.

Good conditions for getting out and seeing the autumnal colours - leaves look like holding stay for quite some tie yet, no gales on the way.

 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Neil Harris said:

I've just listened to a horse racing trainer pleading for more rain in the South west!! He's not going to get it then?

Maybe a little bit....though I’m surprised about that comment. The SW has been soaked recently, quite a few stations had over a months worth of rain in the first few days!

[Shere Khan]

That Atlantic better reawaken come mid November. Certainly in the mood for another snow fest of 2010/11. Already had a two week business shutdown with Covid!!

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Shere Khan said:

That Atlantic better reawaken come mid November. Certainly in the mood for another snow fest of 2010/11. Already had a two week business shutdown with Covid!!

Sorry your post makes no sense, why do you want the Atlantic to ramp up in mid November if cold and snow is your thing?Sorry this is way of topic so will leave it there.

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Shere Khan said:

That Atlantic better reawaken come mid November. Certainly in the mood for another snow fest of 2010/11. Already had a two week business shutdown with Covid!!

Not what's needed for snow in Thanet! maybe for Cairngorm

[Allseasons-Si]

Well that looks a pretty decent northerly from the gfs with -6 uppers reaching the south...