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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
12 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I’m not sure where you are plucking 20c from....but that chart certainly isn’t even close! UK maxes are around 9-14c for Monday on tonight’s ecm. The only way you’d see 20c plus this time of year is a straight southerly draw.

The trouble is it's a midnight chart i don't know what the max is

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
5 minutes ago, thundasnow said:

The trouble is it's a midnight chart i don't know what the max is

Also i'm a newbie since april and about last week for this forum

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
23 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It’s just galling that we’re getting this output now and not in Dec/Jan/Feb 

winter is coming early and so is spring

ecmt850.120.png

ecmt850.240.png

Edited by thundasnow
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The ten day ec seems a long way from the corresponding gfs. The nhp are very encouraging and hopefully continue

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Saturday charts for the 500 mb anomaly set

Ec-gfs, and only ec out so far; and ec fairly similar in most major aspects to Friday

Noaa last evening is also fairly similar to its last chart but with less emphasis on the rather sharp trough shown se of Greenland, it now shows a large more rounded trough  which also covers the uk and extends towards Iberia.

So perhaps a tentative stab at uk weather 6-10 ahead=no strong winds, in fact with fairly cold upper air over the country, inland overnight fog and probably frost seem likely with any clear skies. In any clearer days then daytime heating into a cold upper air will likely trigger showers inland as well as local winds off the fairly warm seas. ‘Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness’ perhaps? The 8-14 looks pretty similar as well. And no this does not tie in with the 6-15 day Met O outlook.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The GFS end and corresponding ECM suites do offer some subtle differences. The ECM more amplified and as such tending to centre low pressure towards the west of Iberia in week two whilst the GFS suite tends to have this just south of the U.K. The ECM probably offering better conditions as in a little drier and milder. The take home message stills seems to be that some form of easterly flow will dominate from the middle of next week onwards with showers and rain at times. Temperatures very much on the cool side.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 hours ago, Griff said:

I'd just seen the GEM posted on twitter

I was thinking about taking it straight to the strat & pv thread (where things often seem a bit abstract and distant from the daily models), but very glad to see this commented on here. 

I'm assuming this means a very disrupted early pv, hence the -NAO

Should I be checking the historic winter archive? Was January 1987 of interest? 

Cheers. 

Jan 87 was a tiny bit chilly.....long draw easterly. Lasted about a week.

image.thumb.png.49ec5b57084529b0e0682abf63133b78.png
 

Back on topic this chart would also be pretty cold were it January. Polar profile different but not a million miles away as an air source for a blink and you’ll miss it moment. But all this is 6 weeks too early for low ground excitement..

image.thumb.png.9bb41cfa6f86424cba97ad0dd25eba2c.png

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interestingly by day 8 we have a notable achievement for the coming late Autumn/winter, namely the final removal of warm upper air from western Russia/northern Europe.

spacer.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

GFS...Complete turn around 00z to 06z at D7 and chilly if you ask me

gfs-0-192_uod0.pnggfs-0-198_mzt2.png

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7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

GFS...Complete turn around 00z to 06z at D7 and chilly if you ask me

gfs-0-192_uod0.pnggfs-0-198_mzt2.png

 

Yes an all to familiar tail of moving to the UKMO

not quite the stella heights of the GEM but a big swing ..

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational so far, this is not your typical autumn pattern chaps, I tell you, there is nothing typical about this!:shok:

A5F1F9CB-B6F3-4291-BD5B-77DF1661A44C.thumb.png.a1faf427103e922d89058526e18fd20d.png

You do realise we live in the uk right nothings normal ever

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Yes an all to familiar tail of moving to the UKMO

not quite the stella heights of the GEM but a big swing ..

Interesting model watching this week, GFS 06Z after next weekend is a little more than just chilly  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good God! Cold rain, more cold rain and even more cold rain... If only it were mid-December!?

A5F1F9CB-B6F3-4291-BD5B-77DF1661A44C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey guys I’ve just about reached my tipping point..do I want warm rain or do I want cold rain?..hmmmmmm..what a dilemma..I think I’m looking for cold rain now!...the sun is getting ever lower and the days are getting ever shorter..I quite like the idea of a cold November!:whistling:

A1F62478-0BA4-4340-95D6-21B6D584BD0B.jpeg.5227368ae73800eaddc99c93c7fabaca.jpeg7E7A229A-9EA1-4FB7-A2D4-733AE1B573FA.thumb.png.da6c7757381292502b9627a59705f99c.png

 

There might be some of that cold rain turning to snow if the control is to be believed

gensnh-0-1-288.thumb.png.b43121c5d18a844f5f8016bd5abf03e8.pnggensnh-0-0-288.thumb.png.f841f5d6ca20349797a3897edb52eb7e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I see the Winter countdown is beginning to gain momentum! Lovely jubiley.. I think Blue gave an update to the EC46 the other day and he's spot on. In the shorter term we have some better conditions for a time next week... Towards next weekend things go downhill with Low pressure taking control, spells of wet weather and pretty chilly at times also. There is perhaps a chance of some ridging at times towards months end which would bring quiter spells and frost and fog more likely. Further into November we see more unsettled conditions taking hold again, and once again it remains pretty chilly. I'm also noticing Heights in the Greenland area throughout much of this period... Now fast forward a few more weeks, and things could start to get interesting! The anomalies do point to a colder November and December, so let's not rule out a front loaded start to the season this year. 

Whatever your doing this weekend, keep safe.. ☀️☕

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

I see the Winter countdown is beginning to gain momentum! Lovely jubiley.. I think Blue gave an update to the EC46 the other day and he's spot on. In the shorter term we have some better conditions for a time next week... Towards next weekend things go downhill with Low pressure taking control, spells of wet weather and pretty chilly at times also. There is perhaps a chance of some ridging at times towards months end which would bring quiter spells and frost and fog more likely. Further into November we see more unsettled conditions taking hold again, and once again it remains pretty chilly. I'm also noticing Heights in the Greenland area throughout much of this period... Now fast forward a few more weeks, and things could start to get interesting! The anomalies do point to a colder November and December, so let's not rule out a front loaded start to the season this year. 

Whatever your doing this weekend, keep safe.. ☀️☕

Aye Matt...Maybe even a hint of a 1985-esque November???

Pleas God, make it so... I'll be good. I promise. I won't be rude to Mummy and Daddy and I'll brush my teeth... and wash behind my ears... Please God -- pretty please?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Hey guys I’ve just about reached my tipping point..do I want warm rain or do I want cold rain?..hmmmmmm..what a dilemma..I think I’m looking for cold rain now!...the sun is getting ever lower and the days are getting ever shorter..I quite like the idea of a cold November!:whistling:

A1F62478-0BA4-4340-95D6-21B6D584BD0B.jpeg.5227368ae73800eaddc99c93c7fabaca.jpeg7E7A229A-9EA1-4FB7-A2D4-733AE1B573FA.thumb.png.da6c7757381292502b9627a59705f99c.png

 

Jon, prefer warm thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Jon, prefer warm thanks

Me too. In summer.,but I’m sensing a disturbance in the force..the models seem to be pointing towards anti-zonal..at least for a time with the Scandi heights and all..maybe a colder late autumn / early winter could be ours?..perhaps a front loaded winter which would be better than a no loaded winter..ps..please post more Matt..missing your regular input!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Afternoon all, a couple of 70 hour weeks at work have curtailed my posting recently but just found enough time to peep at the clusters for D10 - looks precariously close to a west based -NAO, which puts the UK on the borderline of a cold Nly/NEly (snow for northern hills possible), or a warm S/SWly and pushing close to 20C as some are saying

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/10/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020101000_240.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

or a warm S/SWly and pushing close to 20C as some are saying

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2020/10/10/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020101000_240.png

 

Lordy Lordy..well there is certainly some warm potential in the GEFS 6z mid range (approx 10 days ahead)...but I am now actively looking for cold..honestly guv!:shok::whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

still looking for possible Indian summer, dosen't make it on this 12Z, but aligned a bit more to the west, could be near 20C, one to watch?

h850t850eu.png

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