Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.

[summer blizzard]

To get the candy out of the way first, the GFS0z had a stonker of a northerly late in FI.

The Euro out to day 10 largely maintains the pattern of recent days in that blocking to our north and north east sees an easterly for the UK (cool and cloudy and possibly wet in the south) with greater undercutting leading to low pressure becoming trapped underneath. 

[Scandinavian High.]

No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, abbie123 said:

No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

 

Does this model supposedly run into November/December?

[Frosty.]

It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!

 

[johnholmes]

An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

Friday 9 October

 

Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[mushymanrob]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

An update for the 500 mb anomaly charts, not that I can say much of substance given the changes in the last 3 days.

Friday 9 October

 

Changes in all 3 from last 2 days so best do update

Ec-gfs now show ridging and +ve heights in band from e-w n Russia across Iceland-greenland to novia scotia! Beneath this ec has flattish trough e-w across uk from Europe intoatlantic; gfs has cut off low from nw Iberia to just off sw uk

Not sure how either of these may be tomorrow!

Noaa has also changed from Wedensday with the trough off the eastern seaboard now shown  as a more marked trough se from Greenland and only a slight signal on the contours any ridging into s’ern Ireland now, the flow is very weak east of 20W with this idea even more pronounced on its 8-14.

These changes all have implications for the uk weather but I’ll hold off for at least 24 hours possibly 48 before putting pen to paper regarding this! Little point in jumping in with no continuity on any of the 3.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
Well, thats what im reading from it...

[Frosty.]

To my untrained eye, the settled signal for next week, which at one time looked quite strong, has become more and more diluted to the point where it’s not really looking settled at all..and I’m using the GEFS / ECM means plus the operational output so far today!!!!!

[Scandinavian High.]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Does this model supposedly run into November/December?

Yes runs early part of November interesting.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

It wasn’t easy but I have found a bit of late October warmth for the south in the GEFS 6z which would surely be the last time 21c 70f is within reach..until sometime in winter!

 

An Indian summer for the south after all?! 

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Oh i dont know John, imho the NOAA charts have been pretty consistent in as much that they have been suggesting some sort of northern blocking and lower heights to the south. Broadly speaking, sunnier calmer conditions up north over Scotland and possibly Western Scotland, whilst an easterly componant in the south will bring cool but dry conditions, cloudiest in the east, sunniest in the west, with a chance of showers in the south.
Well, thats what im reading from it...

I think we best agree not to totally agree there m. If you look at the days previous to last evening then NOAA is rather different in one or two ways. They may be important but as it has only shown the current prediction once I prefer to wait like I suggested. You may turn out correct with your forecast but it is great to see someone using them in a positive way. Cheers mate.

[Kentspur]

4 hours ago, abbie123 said:

No sign at the moment Westerly train to fire up with blocking signal to continue .

Last week of October looking mild and wet? Hope not!

[mb018538]

A wildly different ECM tonight..

Deep low over the UK by next Sunday. Not seen this in any other output yet!

[Eagle Eye]

Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Some warmth could get to 20oc by mid day maybe much like Jon Snow's post looks like heat could be coming soon i don't think we'll be plunged into cold straight after that though

I’m not sure where you are plucking 20c from....but that chart certainly isn’t even close! UK maxes are around 9-14c for Monday on tonight’s ecm. The only way you’d see 20c plus this time of year is a straight southerly draw.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational certainly isn’t all bad, away from the SE there’s a marked improvement during the second half of the working week thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure bringing largely fine conditions, pleasant in the sunshine but where skies are clear overnight, it would turn cold with slight frosts and given the time of year, some mist / fog could be an issue...but then it turns very unsettled for all.

[carinthian]

This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

C

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

This in my mind is chart of the day from ECM showing ensemble mean 850mb temps.  Note the sharp gradient in the lower temp profile towards the North and East, One of the signs of an advance of the Arctic front  into Scandinavia across Iceland. How far south does it get ? Of course a long way off  but low pressure to the SW of the British Isles will have an affect. If it heads into the continent or Southern Britain , colder air will at least be drawn into Northern Scotland  with a risk of some early snowfall in these parts. All of a conjecture at this stage but a interesting chart nevertheless .

C

Always good to see the advance of the arctic front and the depth of cold behind it.

[mb018538]

As expected - ECM op had a meltdown after day 8 tonight and should be ignored!

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys

loving the new theme BTW

looking at the models and as i said last night i do wish that we were into winter right now as i see plenty of N/NW blocking on the anomalies 

EPS at day ten 500's and 850's so a cool 7-10 days> looks a fair bet

latest from cpc, as you were from last night with Pacific trough with east'n Pacific ridge with trough east'n US/Canada with mid Atlantic ridge extended into Scandi suppressing trough to our south

De-built wind direction ecm ens shown below,you can see in the black circle the cluster at 45 degrees= winds from the NE

steady as she goes,can we achieve this as we go into winter?,we have better prospects going forward within the drivers:-

lag effect from solar minimum(of which can take a year or so)

La Nina(don't want it to get any stronger but more favourable)

-IOD(-Indian Ocean Dipole),again more favourable and as we know was a strong +IOD last winter

-ve NAO/AO as has been the case recently

all these factors/pieces of the humongous puzzle to take into account are looking good  so  far but we have seen these type of synoptic trends with a similar values in recent Autumns as regards to weather patterns so let's see how it goes

Have a good weekend all and be safe

cheers for now.

 

  

 

 

[SMU]

Good morning.

This is the GEM.

 

In terms of being extraordinary its on a par   ( but better ) with 2010 & Jan 12 1987, not necessarily for UK cold but for that record breaking intense high just west of Greenland - Note the anomaly.

I wrote about these 'super' intense high pressures 3-4 years ago.

You will never find a chart like this in the archives as its record breaking. 600 DM high pressure over that region. Never been done.

2010 was 588 maybe 592.

Lets see if it unfolds like that...

[winterfreak]

40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good morning.

This is the GEM.

 

In terms of being extraordinary its on a par   ( but better ) with 2010 & Jan 12 1987, not necessarily for UK cold but for that record breaking intense high just west of Greenland - Note the anomaly.

I wrote about these 'super' intense high pressures 3-4 years ago.

You will never find a chart like this in the archives as its record breaking. 600 DM high pressure over that region. Never been done.

2010 was 588 maybe 592.

Lets see if it unfolds like that...

You’re such a tease Steve..

[SMU]

39 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

You’re such a tease Steve..

Lol - I'm not in control of the models

Lets see what the ECM brings - UKMO very chilly out to 144.

[SMU]

58 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

You’re such a tease Steve..

ECM > Black hole. Will check AO values prob -4 / -5

[Griff]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM > Black hole. Will check AO values prob -4 / -5

I'd just seen the GEM posted on twitter

I was thinking about taking it straight to the strat & pv thread (where things often seem a bit abstract and distant from the daily models), but very glad to see this commented on here. 

I'm assuming this means a very disrupted early pv, hence the -NAO? 

Should I be checking the historic winter archive? Was January 1987 of interest? 

Cheers. 

[mushymanrob]

15 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I think we best agree not to totally agree there m. If you look at the days previous to last evening then NOAA is rather different in one or two ways. They may be important but as it has only shown the current prediction once I prefer to wait like I suggested. You may turn out correct with your forecast but it is great to see someone using them in a positive way. Cheers mate.

imho they are struggling to handle the expected build of pressure to our north next week, an irregular pattern which they all struggle to understand as opposed to a regular atlantic driven long wave pattern.

Low confidence for the current 8-14 day chart, and the 6-10 dayer has increased the low pressure anomaly to our south. So imho its looking more showery today then previously for the southern half of the UK.

IMHO the latest ECM (00z) follows pretty much what id expect the NOAA 's are suggesting.... sorry not got time to post charts.