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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

Could it get a little chilly at night under those charts?  Even some frost?  Hoping to see a newspaper use the headline "0C tober....."

For sure mid month could be technically on the cooler side although more settled for a time (at the very least!) before trending more unsettled again according to the GEFS 6z mean..so, some overnight slight ground frosts could occur during the mid Oct period but I’m not seeing anything to severe at this stage!!!:shok:

01E7143F-AFC3-4E56-BB10-77678D79D82D.thumb.png.051739001ce2489a0365453a6414158f.png3FB08BFD-50D7-4492-8DDF-FF00A8F7F05B.thumb.png.1b64555977ac5f49eaba2cd8fc8eacdc.png2D232B48-843D-4850-A709-A8425175DB74.thumb.png.31afac3161e9446a8cc3f3d6c09601dd.pngEF1D4768-C44C-4539-AB37-9E7BDA2F3C2A.thumb.png.6e1d569c38c10bf341d17703923b144f.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the GEFS 6z mean eventually swings to more unsettled again, that doesn’t make it necessarily so!...there is a much bigger picture (other models etc..etc) and in any case there are still some settled 6z members longer term, even some pleasantly warm ones!..if there was any wintry looking Synoptics showing for this period it would be a complete waste of time with winter still six weeks away..from mid Oct..patience cold grasshoppers!!!!!!!!

3AE7A6F6-CB24-4945-A574-2822C09AB006.thumb.png.193bc1b1467be3bf978b19b98b43c75c.pngE0AC0161-5EDB-423C-B3A7-2B896EF875DD.thumb.png.ac2e0feedd48db1761516a1bf7891e74.png9213FE46-23CE-4527-8099-B22D5176304D.thumb.png.94db5ac85dfaa2e3ac0b5cc3f8e74aad.pngD7E2E1DF-657C-4F01-BFC0-4B292956557F.thumb.png.1e2ce32a2cbc32e156306eb99a3cd412.png98F596B1-D658-4104-A022-1B37C431BBBF.thumb.png.8bf9e242711afb3874de97f6c2ad1f4d.pngE37E9DA8-ADA7-4C42-BCEF-53609D42FAD3.thumb.png.0f0939ab1464c7f82c802cf23cc6fc41.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Very cold early week after next week but possibly sone warmth coming from the west

ecmt850.216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Yep, chilly for the far(ish) North and West according to that chart for Thursday. But further South, looking fairly warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Never going to happen  well extremely small chance but ECM 12z gave a good dumping to uplands of southern Scotland next Thursday. If we maintain jet stream to our south the more possibilities will arise for higher ground of north further into autumn.

8F7197F1-8050-441C-84E0-79CA479BE46A.thumb.png.56510e302060d9afa23ca33a4c170bfe.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter

Spread increases as we descend into Autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere.  I wouldn't rule out the chance of some Autumn warmth later this month with a couple of members exceeding 10°C at the 850hPa level.  Contrastingly, there are a number of models going for a rather cool middle part of October.  I think we can say with relative confidence that the washout we are currently enduring will at least calm down a little into the middle of the month.

gefsens850Cardiff0 (7).png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Spread increases as we descend into Autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere.  I wouldn't rule out the chance of some Autumn warmth later this month with a couple of members exceeding 10°C at the 850hPa level.  Contrastingly, there are a number of models going for a rather cool middle part of October.  I think we can say with relative confidence that the washout we are currently enduring will at least calm down a little into the middle of the month.

gefsens850Cardiff0 (7).png

Understandable to see increased spread out and beyond, it doesn’t help we have 10 more members too! I think what is quite clear the first half of October will be cool but good signs of settling down mid month thereafter we don’t really have a clue.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

952342F1-4BBF-4C9C-A0F0-5D64DC94AC17.thumb.png.30e3da20966c337bf2cd4ebb53ab8d63.png74F37B3C-9596-4947-A8B1-06EFBEDAB92A.thumb.png.9d96ea841af98dc4df1ea61b3cb3e3dd.png
 

Better conditions still in the forecast from the back end of next weekend onwards. Next week looking mainly unsettled with further showers or longer spells of rain in places.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!:shok:

A67DF545-90C1-4EC8-9A3A-6EC3F3B590F1.jpeg.4e9dbfece39d7113c2cd72dcebd57add.jpeg88989EB7-33B2-4F02-B7FC-F7E9D3D9B1F5.thumb.gif.7d01e00e3ac5aef562bce2cffe38ab07.gifA5ADA3C9-F395-4670-9EDD-3D62B9508C07.thumb.gif.6eba1f34b34ea076e8b99e2eb2e5786f.gif819CD6C7-832F-4EC6-B4D8-AC508F6C34F8.thumb.gif.0f825ebcc3d982ec28db9d8f7132fb0d.gif568A67AB-4346-4754-9243-52E5C9852CEF.thumb.gif.16ebbd8d79d0c3f1e0cc79e13280bace.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!:shok:

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Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

Well Ed, I mean General Cluster, I mean Pete!...you can’t beat a bit of bully..I mean high pressure!..and that’s what the Gfs 6z op shows beyond this unsettled filth!!!!!..should be some October fog index..given the time of year and all!!!!!

1723D1D0-0648-409D-B5BE-6B88C74F5DD4.jpeg.f9ac3940d42f357d561b86ad1ac35538.jpeg200DD643-6AC1-46AE-A144-68909C03CB47.thumb.png.e96baec2c266362a5a6afd1e12be2dd6.png88546364-FC56-47E5-8BEA-F450C73D91FB.thumb.png.311bee02b8074de5b6b0fd4e1a07ac65.png68D4F7FD-67AC-4E24-B1C1-7227CC30B94D.thumb.png.b1fcca5bfdcb586da5875089706c8318.png8783D44F-A68C-4477-BDD1-346E480AC817.thumb.png.cf68cdfa03fef56acdd49ce9aab8db74.pngE082239B-5607-458F-807F-F733AED4F736.thumb.png.e4e2ee706c873d1f5657354d0e634849.png783C0861-2D51-4AE2-A619-FAAEB96772F7.thumb.png.ba613791e8b0eaa6b2507c6afef20fad.png

E02D2398-8EC1-47C7-AFCE-85FB6FB651CC.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 0z op / ens mean longer term..there are better times ahead!!!!!!!!

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Good times ahead, for the October Fog Index too!:oldgood:

I like the cut of your jibs, chaps.  Please keep up this ‘good news’ theme as I am in desperate need of cheering up.  The UKMO rainfall accumulation chart for the next six days says almost everyone is going to get a soaking.....

xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2020100100_119_18_157.thumb.png.2a6c3d08546449b4e24f3cf26348e67b.png

Oops.  Too late.  I think we’re already drenched.

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I like the cut of your jibs, chaps.

  • Arrr, Jim lad...thank you..I like the cut of the Gfs 6z jibs to..until near the end at least!:whistling::shok:
  • 07969F11-97F0-476C-A3C4-BE77ADB8709A.thumb.png.b56803ef9b8c4393a6ca261c71f94e9c.png23192289-0CC2-4E70-87EE-E9C08752C1B4.thumb.png.d9e6122c731a99c962d81e390980e59d.pngEC513DB7-F50B-4D56-9AEA-5389C6B35042.thumb.png.faa5d5c9bdd679a3918668c5fde73691.png8AC394FA-0FCC-4DB1-9CEE-B893D84C66EF.thumb.png.81f8f9c29fc3cbdcf6a64baf2a136c1e.png

2ED0FA14-813D-453C-A512-89BFCD11DA35.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
  • Arrr, Jim lad...thank you..I like the cut of the Gfs 6z jibs to..until near the end at least!:whistling::shok:
  • 07969F11-97F0-476C-A3C4-BE77ADB8709A.thumb.png.b56803ef9b8c4393a6ca261c71f94e9c.png23192289-0CC2-4E70-87EE-E9C08752C1B4.thumb.png.d9e6122c731a99c962d81e390980e59d.pngEC513DB7-F50B-4D56-9AEA-5389C6B35042.thumb.png.faa5d5c9bdd679a3918668c5fde73691.png8AC394FA-0FCC-4DB1-9CEE-B893D84C66EF.thumb.png.81f8f9c29fc3cbdcf6a64baf2a136c1e.png

2ED0FA14-813D-453C-A512-89BFCD11DA35.jpeg

But not everyone can read maps, Frosty, Karl, Jon! image.thumb.png.1dc8c856518112a7d6d4d5b12a2083d3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!

 

CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!

 

CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

You may wake up to a Horses head next to you for posting that one!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The cold mafia will hate me for this...face, Bovered!...could be some late October warmth according to the GEFS 6z!

 

CEBFA04C-ECFD-4CA6-ACBC-B94C51254AE7.png

AD7FC698-E226-43D0-A061-490FA437DE2D.png

Nah, some October warmth is fine by me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Amazing warmth pushing right up north over the US eastern seaboard by mid October. It penetrates high up into the arctic. Would this be a good omen/increase the chances of a possible strat November Canadian warming? 

Screenshot_20201004-153704.png

Screenshot_20201004-153728.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
14 minutes ago, Xanderp009 said:

Depends on ones definition of cold, if you’re stood on top of a Scottish mountain I imagine it would feel cold!:whistling::shok:..that’s me done for the day..!

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Edited by Jon Snow
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